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idecline
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 08:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 17 2018, 08:58 PM) *
...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
Attached Image

...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...

Attached Image


rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 17 2018, 10:03 PM) *
Unfortunately looks like a nope for chi-town. You see the concave look to precip that is the jet punching through the center and thus just left is the LP which puts chi-town in the warmth as for the potential after that is up in the air. You need a low rocketing into MI and OH area to get the snows into that area.


...I am no midwest expert...doesn't the 'backside' look very promising for Chi-Town? ...and to the north blink.gif
Attached Image


...we will see...this storm is very cold even in California... huh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288888 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Jan 19 2018, 08:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Marshall, TX on 01/21/2018

Petal, MS on 01/22/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2288886 · Replies: · Views: 430

idecline
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 08:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 08:44 PM) *
Looks like we're done with accumulating snow in Chicago through the end of the month. Still well below normal.


...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
Attached Image

...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 20 2018 - 12Z WED JAN 24 2018

...OVERVIEW...

MULTI-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ESTABLISHMENT OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE PREVAILING LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48, THOUGH WITH SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
FOR THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH'S AXIS. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN THERE SHOULD BE TWO PROMINENT PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST COAST AND
SOME MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND, WHILE A LEADING UPPER TROUGH
REACHING THE WEST AS OF EARLY SAT WILL GENERATE A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT PLAINS THROUGH GREAT LAKES STORM FROM SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

QUOTE
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. LEADING STORM EMERGING
FROM THE WEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST,
ATLANTIC INFLOW COULD ENHANCE TOTALS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
THE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS AS WELL DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE ROCKIES.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE MOST EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS TO BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE INITIAL WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. STORM
AND COLD FRONT, WITH THE WARMTH PROGRESSING FROM THE PLAINS SAT TO
THE EASTERN STATES IN LESS EXTREME FASHION BY MON-TUE. SOME MIN
TEMPS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON WHILE HIGHS
MAY REACH 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANTICIPATE
HIGHS OF 5-15F BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
WEST DURING THE WEEKEND.

RAUSCH



Attached Image


rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288588 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 08:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


... rolleyes.gif ...had to edit previous post...idee worked Monday Martin Luther King Day and was one day off in his thinking...hopefully no one took their bumbershoot to work today expecting rain... laugh.gif
...rain should begin in the wee hours of Thursday morning...with some embedded heavier showers...lighter amounts will stick around through Friday...with a chance for a dusting of snow on the highest Bay Area peaks...
...now we have a very vigorous extratropical storm spinning off the coast of British Columbia...~ 965mb ...
Attached Image

...lots of cold air stacked in behind this front...snows will be much lower than they have been in previous storms...speckled clouds behind the front show lots of uplift...and a 'jet streak' is aiming at the West Coast...
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...OPC 48hr. shows that low pressure may remain offshore into Friday allowing for cooler air and instability showers (snow to 3500') to reach down into the Bay Area on the back side of front...some energy moves east into Four Corners region emerging as a snow storm into the MidWest early next week...Northeast should follow

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...96hr shows a push of Arctic air may recycle around the back of this large trough...coldest air of the year for California???? by middle of next week...we shall see...more rain also...
OPC 96hr: 500mb upper air
Attached Image


...the 'storm door' is definitely 'open' while this potentially 'short-lived' push of 'zonal' flow persists and the moisture track of upper air stays focused on the middle of the West Coast...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2288581 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 08:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...Pacific Ocean wants to send storms straight into the CONUS with the 'introduction' of zonal flow late this week...
Attached Image
...OPC 96 hr: 500mb upper air
Attached Image


rolleyes.gif ...look how low the 'trajectory' of the 564mb line is as the 'Westerlies' enter into the CONUS...

WPC Long Term...
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 19 2018 - 12Z TUE JAN 23 2018

...OVERVIEW...

DURING THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48 WILL SETTLE INTO BROAD MEAN TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL TEND
TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEST-- WITH HEAVY PRECIP
POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST COAST IN PARTICULAR--
WHILE AN EMBEDDED WESTERN SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK WILL EMERGE OVER
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WIND
TO SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/UNCERTAINTIES/PREFERENCES...

BROADLY SPEAKING THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF, THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS PLUS THE
06Z GEFS MEAN, AS WELL AS THE 00Z CMC/UKMET, REPRESENT THE PATTERN
FAIRLY WELL. ONE AREA OF RELATIVE CONTENTION IS WITH FLOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S./EASTERN CANADA EARLY-MID PERIOD, WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE ECMWF-BASED GUIDANCE BRINGING A SURFACE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THAN A MAJORITY OF OTHER
SOLUTIONS. A COMPROMISE APPROACH LOOKS BEST WITH THIS ASPECT OF
THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE THE 06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A LOWER
PROBABILITY/FAST SCENARIO RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. THIS INCLUDES
THE FORECAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM, AND EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN U.S. FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE
UPDATED FORECAST EMPHASIZED A 00Z OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND DAYS 3-5
FRI-SUN WHILE ADDING SOME 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE BUT MAINTAINING SOME 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC INPUT BY DAYS 6-7
MON-TUE.

TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WEST COAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES/EASTERN
CANADA SYSTEM, ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FAST 06Z GFS THERE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT/STABILITY GIVEN
THE TIME FRAME INVOLVED. DETAIL DIFFERENCES/ADJUSTMENTS ALOFT
BECOME NOTICEABLE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY BY SUN-MON, LEADING TO
UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE THE SYSTEM WILL BE. MOST
RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM,
WHICH AT LEAST ARGUES FOR LEANING AWAY FROM GEFS MEANS WHICH IN
SOME RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF MEAN.
ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING IN THE 00Z CYCLE HAS IMPROVED COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO WITH, WITH THE GREATEST DENSITY OF SURFACE LOWS OVER
KS/NORTHWEST OK AS OF 12Z SUN AND IA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
12Z MON. THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE BLEND YIELDS A SOLUTION WELL
WITHIN THE SPREAD AND CLOSE TO OR A FRACTION SLOWER THAN
CONTINUITY. REGARDLESS OF HOW WELL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CLUSTERED, IT MAY STILL TAKE UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO THE VALID TIME
FOR IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THIS STORM TO BE RESOLVED.

AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE BC COAST/VANCOUVER ISLAND
AROUND SUN-MON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST PUSHING
INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD BUT THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL FIT INTO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
PATTERN SO SOME OF THEIR SOLUTIONS COULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD TO OCCUR FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CA WITH FAVORED TERRAIN POSSIBLY
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES LIQUID IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEST WITH THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES SEEING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF PRECIP
ALBEIT WITH LOWER ABSOLUTE TOTALS THAN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. LEADING SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE WEST AND THEN
TRACKING NORTHEAST AS IT STRENGTHENS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER
GREAT LAKES. IF THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED WINDS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THERE MAY BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW POSSIBLY TO
THE EXTENT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WARM SECTOR RAINFALL OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT-MODERATE
SIDE BUT WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST LATE THIS WEEK.

THE MOST PRONOUNCED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. LOW TEMPS IN
PARTICULAR MAY BE 15-25F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS FRI WITH THIS AXIS OF WARMTH PROGRESSING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, REACHING THE EAST COAST STATES BY NEXT
MON. HIGH TEMPS WILL A BIT LESS EXTREME BUT STILL 10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL OVER SOME AREAS. THE SOUTHEAST WILL START OUT QUITE CHILLY
ON FRI, WHILE COOL AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RAUSCH
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288217 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 08:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...little to no rain from last night's 'system'... sad.gif ...moisture is very rich to our west...slowly pushing east...
Attached Image

...big system in mid-Pacific is slowly evolving into a larger storm...angle and forward motion say Wednesday night to Thursday morning for arrival...the dampening of the big high pressures will be a big plus...Zonal flow?
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image


...OPC view puts front on Northern California's doorstep...with a 965mb low blink.gif just off Victoria Island, BC

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...second storm is forming in far western Pacific basin...seems to ride on a strong jet extension into the West...and the 500mb from OPC says we look to see 'zonal' flow for a few days...with moisture-rich air entering the CONUS...perhaps sending a snow storm (or two) into the Rockies/Midwest, then Northeast into the next weekend...resolving the Arctic air distribution factor will take place and February may start with ridge returning...long term could imply atmospheric weakness along the West Coast into Spring...or not...

OPC 96hr: upper air 500mb
Attached Image


... rolleyes.gif ...let it 'flow'...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2288207 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 12 2018, 08:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...um...is that a 'big' storm digging into the West by next Tuesday...??? blink.gif

Attached Image


QPF's 7-day

Attached Image


...don't be surprised if rain shifts further south than this QPF shows...this is a really rich moisture train ... wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286046 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Jan 12 2018, 08:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...over 2 inches of rain was widespread in Bay Area...mountains got 4-6" with 10" plus in southern coastal mts...unfortunately this also contributed to the awful mudslides/debris flows near Montecito...

...more on the way early next week...
Attached Image

...southern trajectories are still in play with ridges dominating upper Canada...
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...high begins to shift by Monday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...let us get what we can before another winter high pressure of significance builds in... dry.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2286037 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 07:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Magnolia, MS on 01/11/2018

Athens, GA on 01/12/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2283431 · Replies: · Views: 430

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866




Ramona, CA on 01/09/2018

Portales, NM on 01/10/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2281302 · Replies: · Views: 430

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...rain all day...got to love it...next surge coming through overnight...Southern and Central California need it!
Attached Image
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image

rolleyes.gif ...Yabba dabba doo...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2281294 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...idee is no expert...La Nina appears to have peaked and warmer deep water currents are expanding to the east... unsure.gif (yes...some pay attention to "numbers" but most of these "describe the past")
...if 3-D makes any sense to anyone else...idee loves these shots... wink.gif
Attached Image
Attached Image

...and for good measure...side view...with excellent thermocline, trade winds, temperatures...and trends...
Attached Image

Attached Image


Attached Image


"What goes up, must come down...spinning wheel spinning round..."....Blood, Sweat and Tears
QUOTE
...what does this all mean?...just that La Nina is always an accentuation of 'normal'( laugh.gif ) conditions implicated by the build-up of waters in the equatorial Western Pacific because of the convective persistence near the Indonesian archipelago...the resultant 'slant' of the thermocline results in the ability for winds to scour away surface waters near the American coasts(N+S) to allow 'upwelling' nutrient-rich cooler water to reach the surface...this in turn creates cool waters off the coast(s) and all of the marine life and adjacent marine sanctuaries that are along the Eastern shores of the Pacific Ocean...El Nino is the 'aberrational' pattern that 'demands' complex pattern changes because of it's basin-wide effects...


...above is a classic 'idee rant'... "all things have a beginning, and an end"

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2281287 · Replies: · Views: 101,588

idecline
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 07:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...trying to maintain my first (and last) place position... dry.gif

Sulphur, LA on 01/07/2018

Petal, MS on 01/08/2018

...falling back to 1985...punk band 'Minutemen' album..."Three Way Tie (for Last)"...

Attached Image

QUOTE
3-Way Tie (For Last) is the fourth and final full-length album recorded by the American punk band Minutemen. It is particularly notable for featuring several covers of songs by bands such as the Urinals, Meat Puppets, Blue Öyster Cult, Creedence Clearwater Revival, Roky Erickson and the Aliens. It was released very shortly before the death of D. Boon, who also painted the cover. Watt collaborated with Black Flag bassist Kira Roessler on three tracks ("No One", "Stories", and "What Is It?"). Around the time that the album was recorded, Watt and Roessler formed Dos. The last song, a cover of Roky Erickson's "Bermuda" was sung over the phone by Mike Watt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-Way_Tie_(For_Last)
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2279411 · Replies: · Views: 430

idecline
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 06:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
...sub-tropical warm front is trying to move in...some lingering showers should remain through Sat. morning...
Attached Image

...next stronger storm cruises in on Monday...by Tuesday morning should be in full steam with widespread rain smile.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2279401 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 4 2018, 08:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...another storm is about to come in from a southerly component...unusual (IMO) for a La Nina...
Attached Image

...beautiful day ...southerly winds...high cirrus clouds and a large arm of cumulus sitting across the Santa Cruz Mountains...definitely all the signs of inclement weather on the way...the clouds are just filtering over the mountains now...rain is approaching soon...with a possible tropical tap..
Attached Image

...windy rainy conditions overnight into Friday...clearing into weekend as weak high pressure will move in...
...another perhaps stronger impulse looks ready for Monday night into Tuesday...
Attached Image


...fire scorched areas will need to be watched for possible runoff problems...California really needs all the rain we can get ...when we can get it... smile.gif

BTW: from AccuWeather's San Jose Forecast page...70 broke the record high for January 4th of 66 degrees
QUOTE
DAY
70°HI
RealFeel® 68°
Precipitation 35%
The temperature breaking the record of 66 set in 2014 with considerable cloudiness
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2278859 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...active out west for the first time in a long while...Attached Image

...zonal flow...?

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2277041 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...just because the only chance for any severe weather would be out West... dry.gif

Cupertino, CA on 01/04/2018

...Happy New Year...and congratulations to Colorado Chinook (second round) and andyhb (overall) for the wins...
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2277022 · Replies: · Views: 430

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


El-Lipsis weather did not have much time last week for forecasts...so the maps posted were for information...

The SF Bay Area is getting a rainstorm just in time for the new year...it is only January 3 and this is looking like a decent pattern is setting up for a series of productive fronts to roll through the West...
Attached Image

...yes the aforementioned 'front' is sliding through at a very oblique angle...yet it still is bringing plenty of unsettled weather...
Attached Image

...the water vapor loop is very revealing about how much moist air is moving into our area...after a long dry period it is nice to see this much energy reaching the California coast...best of all this middle latitude pattern looks to continue for the next few days...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image


...this shows a nice set of 'chained lows' moving into WA/BC border area...with the other low into Juneau...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...the 96 hr. surface map has a developing storm in the central NPacific...perhaps reaching 'hurricane' strength...the good trend is that this storm seems to stay further south...so with more zonal flow this storm (even if it is 'over-ripe') could be another round of wet weather...it certainly does look to be strong...

OPC 96hr: (500mb) upper air...

Attached Image


...and the 'zonal' flow of the upper air only seems to put the jet aiming at the Northwest and West Coast...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2277012 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Dec 29 2017, 08:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
Attached Image
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2269499 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Dec 28 2017, 09:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image

Attached Image
Attached Image
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2268688 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Dec 27 2017, 09:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...triple barreled low pressure in the Bering Sea...how long will this washing (warshing (sic)) machine last? unsure.gif
Attached Image


...topsy-turvy highs and lows...and jet stream with nowhere to go...center of country well below...zero...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2267992 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

idecline
Posted on: Dec 27 2017, 08:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...above average day time temperatures persist...(seems out of place after last season's rains)...cool at night.
Attached Image

...the West Coast is still stuck in a pattern of 're-cycling' low pressure systems sending some energy up and over the ridge...with much energy 'retrograding into the Bering Sea or even further east...it looks like a 'spin' cycle on a front load washer... dry.gif
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image


...this map hints at a short period of semi-'zonal' flow...maybe a shower into Northern California...?
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...this map seems to give that notion a 'heave-ho'...and the OPC 500mb upper air shows a 'triple play' in the Bering Sea...somebody is going to get very angry in the atmospheric 'agitation'...where will all of this go...?
Attached Image


...interesting effects should start to trend very soon...a major re'adjustment' in upper air and jet stream... huh.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2267973 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Dec 23 2017, 07:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Dec 23 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Still a lot of uncertainty with this one...


rolleyes.gif unsure.gif biggrin.gif

TDAT!

Attached Image


...it looks to be a 'Last Minute' Christmas 'gift' for many... wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2265480 · Replies: · Views: 112,948

idecline
Posted on: Dec 23 2017, 07:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
...cloudy and cool during the day...high clouds should leave overnights low warmer...
Attached Image

...good moisture flow will prevail for next few days...air and humidity not so 'dry' feeling for the Holiday...
Attached Image

...and a Happy Holidays to All!!!

OPC 96hr (500mb) upper air:
Attached Image


...with the large HP systems migrating so far north...a bit of weakness is developing at the bottom edge...
...large upper level lows are prevalent on this map...can they link up with southern flow coming into the New Year?
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2265475 · Replies: · Views: 73,264

idecline
Posted on: Dec 22 2017, 08:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,157
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...here is the 'sub-tropical' moisture supply for the next few days...
Attached Image

and here are the QPF's of what this plume may do... dry.gif

Attached Image


...Happy Christmas! ...and may the snow fall for those are 'Dreaming of a White Christmas'...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2264563 · Replies: · Views: 377,169

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