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> Tropical Storn Lee, 9/16 11AM AST - 40 MPH - 1007mb - Movement: W @ 12mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:16 AM
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QUOTE
2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 11:37 AM
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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 06:56 PM
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Invest 97L should ascend to tropical storm Lee by tomorrow or Saturday.



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Phased Vort
post Sep 14 2017, 10:11 PM
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Invest 97L ascends to Tropical Depression 14.

Lee could be born as early as tomorrow.

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12
hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the
circulation. A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that
the intensity is around 30 kt. The system is currently embedded
within an area of light to moderate easterly shear. This should not
prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over
warm water during the next couple of days. After that time, a mid-
to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause
an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong
by days 4 and 5. As a result, weakening is expected late in the
forest period. The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher
statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high
pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central
Atlantic by early next week. This should cause a significant
reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend.
There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with
the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes
a weaker system more westward. The NHC track is between these
solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 10.7N 25.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 11.2N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 11.5N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 11.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 11.5N 31.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 11.8N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 12.8N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 14.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN


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MaineJay
post Sep 15 2017, 02:37 AM
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this is probably Lee already.

Attached Image


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...p&TYPE=ssmi

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=12


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Ron in Miami
post Sep 15 2017, 06:11 AM
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This one needs to be watched, could effect the Leeward/Windward islands and conus down the road.


Location: 10.5N 24.7W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 15 2017, 06:18 AM
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Just checked the overnight models, 0z Euro takes it through the islands, PR, DR and has it SE of the Carolinas by day 10.

6z GFS is similar through the islands and takes it into south Carolina by the 25th.
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Ron in Miami
post Sep 15 2017, 06:28 AM
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Think I goofed, 97L is TD 14 which has a thread already O_o I'm a bit out of the loop, net access is still janky down here in Miami. Just now starting to get better cell reception here. JD or PV can merge the thread.
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stretchct
post Sep 15 2017, 09:33 AM
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Just for clarification. TD 14 is not the storm that is modeled to strike the leewards. That would be the orange X that hasn't formed yet. So far, 14 is modeled by the GFS and Euro to dissipate in the central Atlantic.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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LUCC
post Sep 15 2017, 01:30 PM
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This is for the orange X in above post:
QUOTE
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands have become better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive
for development, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form over
the weekend. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, and interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


This post has been edited by LUCC: Sep 15 2017, 01:32 PM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 15 2017, 02:42 PM
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Folks, good afternoon.

It seems there has been some confusion here. This thread is only for trpical depression 14, Lee by tonight.

The orange X, which is invest 96L, is to be discussed in its thread, Invest 96L, likeky to be Maria.


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risingriver
post Sep 16 2017, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 15 2017, 03:42 PM) *
Folks, good afternoon.

It seems there has been some confusion here. This thread is only for trpical depression 14, Lee by tonight.

The orange X, which is invest 96L, is to be discussed in its thread, Invest 96L, likeky to be Maria.


hello Lee.
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sak
post Sep 18 2017, 11:07 AM
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Doesn't look like Lee will be bothering anyone.
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Typesylvester
post Sep 19 2017, 10:21 PM
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Lee now an orange lemon again on NHC. 60%.
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rainstorm
post Sep 22 2017, 07:34 PM
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Lee looks like a micro-cane to me and there is a disturbance se of it that might also be the remains of lee. Will that also be lee?
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Typesylvester
post Today, 12:03 AM
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Lee looks like it is developing an eye or eyelike feature. If Lee does strengthen to a hurricane as NHC predicts it might, it would be the 8th hurricane in a row?
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Typesylvester
post Today, 02:18 AM
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Upgraded to Hurricane Lee.

CODE
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240625
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in
Lee's central dense overcast. This special advisory is thus being
issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The intensity
forecast has been significantly increased based on the current
intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat
modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0630Z 31.9N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


This post has been edited by Typesylvester: Today, 02:19 AM
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TC1
post Today, 04:03 AM
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Hurricane "Undead" Lee. It was born, died and then rose from the grave to terrorize fish like a sea revenant. He's a stubborn little storm that just refuses to give up.
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risingriver
post Today, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 24 2017, 05:03 AM) *
Hurricane "Undead" Lee. It was born, died and then rose from the grave to terrorize fish like a sea revenant. He's a stubborn little storm that just refuses to give up.

he's almost a small major hurricane.
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stretchct
post Today, 02:30 PM
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Lee looks pretty good. Forecast to go to 95kts
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/241449.shtml


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

Send some cold beer!


First measurable
First flakes
First freeze
First frost

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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