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NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jul 16 2018, 09:54 AM) *
Based on current RRWT interval rates a recent trough in the Hudson Bay region will ignite the Autumn spirit come mid October. smile.gif

[attachment=356927:dwm500_t...20180709.gif]


Interesting pattern being shown now (in mid July) coming up next 2 weeks how the troughs are back to digging down again like back in June. Made me wonder if it will continue or be back for fall. And naturally air gets colder after August so would be fun to see....and feel the crisps
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331546 · Replies: · Views: 1,020

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 11:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Jul 15 2018, 11:02 AM) *
So in my town in CT, we are seeing A LOT of acorns falling already. Isn't a lot of acorns a sign of a bad winter coming?


Haha. what?? blink.gif Oak leaves just got full few weeks ago. Acorns take 4+ months to mature and a month to drop...No way at all acorns have grown and or fell yet. I suspect the tree is sick or maybe its another type of nut?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331508 · Replies: · Views: 25,282

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 07:58 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


With the way the Jet stream keeps dipping and these troughs coming in with blocking in the Atlantic it should make for an interesting setup.

This will not only keep temps down but also bring a chance of a coastal storm forming. Lets keep an eye on this pattern.. Chris and Beryl came within few hundred miles of hitting the coast and take a look at the setup coming.


This mornings look at the Upper Height. See loop below.



Pretty persistent Atlantic HP and even gets closer to East coast towards the end of the run.




I think the East coast may be entering a wet period as a parked High Pressure over the Atlantic will bring a southeast flow up the coast and stall fronts coming in. Kinda Like what we had in Spring especially in Northeast?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331494 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 15 2018, 07:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 14 2018, 10:38 AM) *
I just want it to cool the h-eck off. This relentless heat and humidity is really getting to me.
Congrats on the FD news!


Relentless?? Aren't you near Lake Michigan west of South Bend? Do you mean relentless 80s? Do you mean July only? Cause June was sure cool and July only has a handful of well above normal days.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331492 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 14 2018, 06:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331458 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 14 2018, 06:32 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Here comes another dry stretch... Trough with Cooler drier Canadian air comes in and looks like stays for couple days. That would be amazing to have 50s dews for multiple days straight. We'll see.

I'm sure the airmass will be modified by time it gets to us but still, should be another long stretch of goodness.

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WPC Long Range Discussion:

QUOTE
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 17 2018 - 12Z Sat Jul 21 2018

...Overview...

The flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. will become a bit more
amplified during the medium range period with an upper-level ridge
expanding from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies, and a
series of upper waves gradually carving out a trough across the
Great Lakes. Heights are also expected to fall across the Pacific
Northwest by late next week as an upper low digs south from the
Gulf of Alaska toward the region.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

A majority deterministic blend including the ECMWF/GFS/CMC was
initially preferred during days 3-5 (Tue-Thu). Models have settled
toward a somewhat slower/more amplified solution with the
trough/upper low passing south of Hudson Bay and moving east into
Quebec during this time frame. The same generally holds true for
additional shortwave energy crossing the north central U.S.
Wed-Thu, which then looks likely to amplify further across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Fri-Sat. Farther west, models continue to
show a compact but energetic shortwave diving southeast across the
Gulf of Alaska toward British Columbia Tue-Wed, with heights
falling across the U.S. Pacific Northwest by later in the week.
Some timing differences remain, but in general guidance has
trended toward somewhat slower/more amplified solutions here as
well. Given the increase in spread, majority weighting was shifted
to ensemble means for days 6-7 (Fri-Sat), including the ECENS and
NAEFS means.


...Weather Highlights/Threats...

Showers and storms with locally heavy rain will accompany a cold
front from the Appalachians to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Tue-Wed. The trailing end of the
frontal boundary is expected to stall from the Southeast to the
southern/central plains, which could also focus locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms through later next week. Monsoonal
moisture will also produce scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms from the southern Great Basin/Southwest to the
southern/central Rockies through the next week, with locally heavy
rain possible especially early in the week (the building
upper-level ridge should gradually reduce the coverage of
convection by later next week).

In the wake of the cold front, high temperatures are expected to
be 5 to 10 deg below average across the central/northern plains
and portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes through much of next week.
Hot temperatures across the Pacific Northwest (highs 5 to 10 deg
above average) should moderate some by later next week as a
Pacific cold front moves inland.


Ryan:



It wont be anything extreme or crazy next week, but will keep Summer conditions in check for sure. (East of the Plains)





And look what GFS has towards the end of the month. ohmy.gif

Doubt this will happen as strong..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331457 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 13 2018, 06:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


https://twitter.com/NickGunterWX/status/1017450715328012293

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Edit: That's Astronomical Fall. Meteo Fall starts in 7 weeks (49 days). biggrin.gif tongue.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331438 · Replies: · Views: 1,020

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 10 2018, 05:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Tropical Storm Chris to become a Cat 1 but no threat to land. Loop last 4 hrs this morning. 2:15-6:15am July 10, 2018

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331325 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 9 2018, 06:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Here are the temp departures for the 1st week of July.

Caribou is +7.5 above normal for the month so far
Hartford is +5.5 above normal
Bangor is +5.0 above normal
Portland is +5.2 above normal
Bridgeport is +3.3 above normal


I'm guessing we end July above normal. Would have to be some crazy cold for it to end up below normal.

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Lucky Northeast..

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Here's a fun look at the temp departures from normal the 1st week of each month this year. (Not actual temps).

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331291 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 05:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


And here it comes! Thank the Lord!

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331192 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 05:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Past 3 days for BDR. Scale starts at 70. That's sad. Lol

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331166 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 05:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,164
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


5:30pm dews.
I spy a front...and life behind it

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331165 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 05:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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IMBY Max Temps

June 29: 90F
June 30: 92F
July 1: 96F
July 2: 94F
July 3: 93F
July 4: 91F
July 5: 92F

7 days! And its the humidity as well. Mid 70s dews again today.
Disgusting.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331164 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 5 2018, 06:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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So where does this long duration heat wave stand so far for Concord, Atlantic City, Hartford, Binghamton, Burlington, & Albany? (Not a heat wave yet for BGM but funny how "2" is up there".)

Today should add 1 more to some of these locations.

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Forecast Max temps

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331114 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 03:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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I stepped outside to test coming out of hibernation... Not bad! Hearing thunder.. Thank You Clouds! I see the temp has dropped.


3 Maps. 4:30pm

Temps

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Dews

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heat Index

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331078 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 01:39 PM


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Getting tired of it now. Day # 6 here but its the humidity which is driving us nuts. Dews in the 70s again.


See Concord, NH there? Day #6 of 90s. Long Duration for them. Only 5 years since 1868 had a longer streak




  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331046 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 01:38 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 4 2018, 01:34 PM) *
Anyone in Fairfield County hearing a thunder-eqsue noise?


Nothing from here yet. I sometimes hear it when its 20-30 miles away but nothing right now.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331045 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 4 2018, 07:32 AM


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Some totals from NJ past 24hrs.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331013 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 09:41 PM


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Wish I was in Montana..in the mountains.
Funny cause I was sick of the snow in April. 5 day heatwave makes me want it again. Lol.

https://twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls/status/1014285216557555712

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330999 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 08:18 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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Day #6 today for Atlantic City. Believe it or not that's in the Top 20 all time streaks of 90+ there.

2 more to get in the Top 10. Got 2 more days until that cold front comes in.

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330994 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 03:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


I always wondered what the warmest rain was around here. Technically warmest air temp with rain...

Check out Newark, NJ today.

Looking at the hourly for Newark, NJ. Started Thunderstorming and 93F .




This site has more frequent updates: Thunderstorm, then rain soon after. So probably was around 90F there with rain?

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330977 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 02:46 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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#PuffingUp

11:35am-3:35pm Loop. I see wind damage & Hail report under there. Temps went from 90s to low 80s.
Flash Flood Warnings went up



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330971 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 02:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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#5 for me.

92.5 with a dew of 78 here.




High Dew points. Hail in NJ. Hearing Thunder from cells popping up. Big cluster over Southern NY causing Flash Flooding.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330969 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 3 2018, 05:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 2 2018, 06:41 PM) *
I would have to guess that it's the work of the very weak CF, having to "lift" over the mtns., clashing with very heavy PWAT air mass (2.2 as per present RAP https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...php?sector=16#)

CTP disco verifies....
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
SPC RAP

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis....php?sector=16#

With the loss of heating, those storms will go "poof", I believe.


Thanks. I found this too: Weak Cold front.

QUOTE
National Weather Service State College PA
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

An oppressive evening throughout along with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across central and especially
western portions of the area. Activity fired over the
Alleghenies at mid afternoon with slow moving heavy rainers
causing numerous flooded basements in Blair County within SFC
dewpoints were in the 70-75F range CWA wide. A very weak cold
front drifting SE from the Lower Great lakes helping to focus
another line of storms extending
from the NW mountains to the
Pittsburgh metro area this evening, where very heavy rain is
falling. Isolated Flash Flood threat persists this evening as a
result. The front and v light southerly flow ahead of it is
pooling PW to over 2" this evening.

Rising heights aloft and the loss of heating will lead to the
convection fading late this evening. It will be another sultry
night with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gardeners know their
tomatoes love the warm overnight lows, but they make for very
uncomfortable sleeping weather.


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Tstms are expected to dissipate before reaching the coverage warning area tonight as
the upper support is modeled to be too weak to overcome the
increasing cin (Convective inhibition). This residual dpva however should spark some
activity on Tue
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330936 · Replies: · Views: 11,058

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jul 2 2018, 08:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


What goes up..must come down? Ridge in East = ... snow in Canada and Montana

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330925 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

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