The Organic Forecasting Method
Utilize initialized conditions around the globe to formulate medium and long range forecasts for the contiguous United States.
Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends.
Bering Sea Rule (BSR)
East Asia Rule (EAR)
Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID)
Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT)
Guess this is the place for this now.
SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?
GFS is the land of cutoffs. 4 cut-off systems in the North Pacific
(I assume this is replacement for the old multi-year thread?)
Bit of an oddity going on in the west Pacific. A typhoon has recurved away from Japan, and is currently just off Japan's coast. Instead of the typical sling toward the Bering, it's curving into Asia where it combines with a large closed trough. This trough amplifies and quickly retrogrades.
It's where the 974mb is noted. Notice the isobars are much tighter on the northeast side than the southwest side. I assume that's some effects of the typhoon lingering.
Should mean a shot of cool weather around August 6-7, no?
None of the models are seeing it, and the agreement about the pattern is impressive.
I assume the final turn toward Asia is the culprit.
Powered by Invision Power Board (http://www.invisionboard.com)
© Invision Power Services (http://www.invisionpower.com)