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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Long-Range U.S. Forecasts _ The Organic Forecasting Method

Posted by: OSNW3 Jul 2 2016, 06:57 AM

...

Posted by: JDClapper Jul 2 2016, 11:12 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jul 2 2016, 08:03 AM) *
Potential heat for the Ohio River Valley...




New overlay map? smile.gif Any "significant" changes from the older version?

Posted by: MaineJay Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM

Guess this is the place for this now.

SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?



https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Posted by: jdrenken Jul 15 2016, 01:07 PM

http://blog.organicforecasting.com/2016/07/when-you-have-been-parodied.html

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1686

Posted by: jdrenken Aug 15 2016, 10:17 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM) *
Guess this is the place for this now.

SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?



https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/160803_rpts.html reports are 125 for the 3rd and 104 for the 4th.

Posted by: Mid Tn. Man Aug 21 2016, 08:14 PM

Interesting anyways smile.gif





Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Aug 21 2016, 08:32 PM

GFS is the land of cutoffs. 4 cut-off systems in the North Pacific


Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Aug 29 2016, 11:40 PM

(I assume this is replacement for the old multi-year thread?)

Bit of an oddity going on in the west Pacific. A typhoon has recurved away from Japan, and is currently just off Japan's coast. Instead of the typical sling toward the Bering, it's curving into Asia where it combines with a large closed trough. This trough amplifies and quickly retrogrades.

Current:


It's where the 974mb is noted. Notice the isobars are much tighter on the northeast side than the southwest side. I assume that's some effects of the typhoon lingering.


Should mean a shot of cool weather around August 6-7, no?

None of the models are seeing it, and the agreement about the pattern is impressive.



I assume the final turn toward Asia is the culprit.

Posted by: bretmw1019 Sep 2 2016, 05:40 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 23 2016, 10:52 PM) *
#Typhoon and #Hurricane via the East Asia Rule and the ECMWF. #EAR





https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/767831463945469952


Can the BSR and EAR really see a hurricane out that far in advance? Seems like the dynamics for the Hurricane come from a much different place. New to the organic forecasting stuff so just curious!


Posted by: jdrenken Sep 30 2016, 02:32 AM


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