 Southern Ontario LES Potential, Nov 12-13 |
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 Nov 11 2012, 01:14 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371  |
A temperature gradient of 20C between the lake temperatures and the 850mb temperatures will be setting up with the passage of the strong cold front. A strong WNW flow behind the front with a very low amount of directional shear will make for ideal LES parameters. This may be the first major event of the season.
Lake huron and georgian bay temps are about 10C: 
glsea.gif ( 25.64K )
Number of downloads: 0A 13C temperature difference needs to be present between the lake temperatures and the 850mb temps in order to see heavy bands of LES. By the text output from the NAM coming out of borden airport we can see 850mb temps below -10C for quite an extended period of time. It is the same case for toronto and surrounding areas. This would mean about a 20C temperature difference setting up: 
Screen_Shot_2012_11_11_at_1.09.49_PM.png ( 33.36K )
Number of downloads: 0Looking at the skew-t plot from toronto after the passage of the cold front we can see a W wind with little directional shear. This will allow these bands to form off of the great lakes.
nam_hgtprs__conus_48_A_us4300_7900skewt1.png ( 22.34K )
Number of downloads: 0We can see early LES bands already forming on the NAM 4km WRF off of lake michigan, superior, huron and georgian bay with the passage of the cold front. I am curious to see what the RAP will show when it gets into range.
wrf_ref_nmm_ne_46.png ( 224.73K )
Number of downloads: 4This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Nov 11 2012, 02:36 PM -------------------- |
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Nov 11 2012, 01:24 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,659 Joined: 21-January 08 From: Alliston,Ontario Member No.: 12,822 |
What date is this for?
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Nov 11 2012, 02:33 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
QUOTE(travis3000 @ Nov 11 2012, 01:24 PM)  What date is this for? Tuesday of this week. -------------------- |
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Nov 11 2012, 02:46 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
12z NAM we can see a strong SW then W and eventually a NW flow coming of of lake huron and georgian bay. The strongest bands will be setting up from W to E from 0z to 12z tuesday. Areas in and around the GTA will probably pick up some light snow or a coating but nothing major probably. A similar situation to last weekend will set up except more widespread and intense bands off of the lakes.
SW:
nam_mslp_uv10m_east_15.png ( 718.21K )
Number of downloads: 2W:
nam_mslp_uv10m_east_18.png ( 715.03K )
Number of downloads: 1NW:
nam_mslp_uv10m_east_20.png ( 700K )
Number of downloads: 1-------------------- |
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Nov 12 2012, 03:45 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
12z NAM 4km WRF showing some bands setting up in a WSW to ENE fashion:
wrf_ref_nmm_ne_22_1.png ( 232.89K )
Number of downloads: 2HRRR is showing a similar setup as well:
rap_ref_neus_19.png ( 170.84K )
Number of downloads: 0850mb Temps below -9C:
rap_pr1_slp_t850_neus_19.png ( 230.73K )
Number of downloads: 0NAM wind direction and speed:
nam_mslp_uv10m_ne_8.png ( 480.83K )
Number of downloads: 0-------------------- |
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Nov 12 2012, 04:14 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,085 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Burlington, ON Member No.: 21,757 |
hearing about wet snow tonight...
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Nov 12 2012, 05:56 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
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Nov 12 2012, 09:37 PM
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#8
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 259 Joined: 7-January 10 From: Kitchener, ON Member No.: 20,828 |
any update on this by chance?
thanks |
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Nov 12 2012, 09:52 PM
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#9
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,080 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 |
there is an interesting feature over Michigan right now producing light snow across a large area. I think this is in association with the winds/LES, but it doesn't really look like LES bands. Anyways, will be interesting to watch the movement of this as well as potential LES bands of Huron and Georgian bay... Looks like they may just be starting...
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Nov 12 2012, 10:28 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,019 Joined: 23-January 12 From: Toronto,ON Member No.: 26,371 |
QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Nov 12 2012, 09:52 PM) there is an interesting feature over Michigan right now producing light snow across a large area. I think this is in association with the winds/LES, but it doesn't really look like LES bands. Anyways, will be interesting to watch the movement of this as well as potential LES bands of Huron and Georgian bay... Looks like they may just be starting... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WSO I noticed that too, if you check out the water vapor loop it looks like it is courtesy of an ULL moving eastwards across lake superior.
iswvcne_0045.gif ( 95.64K )
Number of downloads: 0Light snows are breaking out on the south side across michigan and heading eastward but seem to be weakening:
Screen_Shot_2012_11_12_at_10.34.27_PM.png ( 159.21K )
Number of downloads: 0This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Nov 12 2012, 10:33 PM -------------------- |
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