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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
grace
post Jun 20 2017, 04:29 PM
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CFS ENSO trending cooler & cooler
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 20 2017, 11:47 PM
Post #142




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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 20 2017, 05:29 PM) *
CFS ENSO trending cooler & cooler

At -0.5C by January laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Jun 24 2017, 06:26 AM
Post #143




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ECMWF plumes, quite the spread. Neutral-warm still favored.
Attached File  ps2png_atls03_a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75_URN3Ot.png ( 22.16K ) Number of downloads: 0




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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 24 2017, 09:11 PM
Post #144




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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 24 2017, 07:26 AM) *
ECMWF plumes, quite the spread. Neutral-warm still favored.
Attached File  ps2png_atls03_a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75_URN3Ot.png ( 22.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

What a headache


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 25 2017, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 24 2017, 10:11 PM) *
What a headache


The signal is just so lost which should honestly signal neutral conditions until something can come out one way or the other.

We have clues of QBO and PDO and MJO that can help out but those look rather muddled as well except we are starting to see EQBO downwell nicely. So if we manage to stay warm-neutral energy can permeate through that boundary this winter and stir things up.


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grace
post Jul 6 2017, 07:33 AM
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3.4 & 4 have been pretty steady for a while now
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jul 8 2017, 02:21 PM
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I'm going to stick with my earlier call for a weak east-based Nino this upcoming winter, July 2nd sub-surface anomalies agree with this.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 8 2017, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jul 8 2017, 03:21 PM) *
I'm going to stick with my earlier call for a weak east-based Nino this upcoming winter, July 2nd sub-surface anomalies agree with this.


The excessive rainfall that peru had received was certainly an eye opener for the idea of an east based nino, but still there is nothing supporting much more than neutral and at best warm neutral. The central PAC has been holding its own so one would think that this should hold well with no major disruptions or coolings looking imminent. I feel the subsurface waters may just help maintain as we are status quo with no real KW forming. MJO very transient and very stagnant at times nothing big has been able to build up to shove some heat eastward and it looks fairly normal with the hadley cell with most of the convection in maritime with what little bit of MJO activity there is.

I feel like what we saw earlier with the anomalous warmth in the EPAC was like a last burp of the nino that started back in '14 and then as things settled we saw this lose a lot of energy into the atmosphere for those few periods, but trades have been steady if model depiction is right should increase rather nicely as an area of high pressure moves just off the peruvian coast.

We will see though.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 8 2017, 04:49 PM


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Millersville University


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grace
post Jul 10 2017, 11:27 PM
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CFS now has cool neutral ENSO with a +PDO laugh.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 11 2017, 12:14 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 11 2017, 12:27 AM) *
CFS now has cool neutral ENSO with a +PDO laugh.gif

Which site are you using? CPC's version of CFS hasn't changed much. It's had a weak +PDO. The one on Weatherbell changes a lot more often so I'd say it's less reliable.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Jul 11 2017, 06:53 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 11 2017, 12:14 AM) *
Which site are you using? CPC's version of CFS hasn't changed much. It's had a weak +PDO. The one on Weatherbell changes a lot more often so I'd say it's less reliable.




I was referring to this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...lbSSTe3Sea.html


The weatherbell & tropicaltidbits are averages of the last 12 monthly forecasts & ate updated daily.

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stuffradio
post Jul 11 2017, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 10 2017, 09:27 PM) *
CFS now has cool neutral ENSO with a +PDO laugh.gif

Yeah, but when will it snow IMBY again?
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grace
post Jul 11 2017, 10:46 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jul 11 2017, 03:47 PM) *
Yeah, but when will it snow IMBY again?



Well...last winter weak nina & +PDO.....just saying tongue.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 12 2017, 12:30 PM
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July JAMSTEC has a weak positive to neutral PDO with a weak Nino



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 12 2017, 12:30 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Jul 12 2017, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 12 2017, 12:30 PM) *
July JAMSTEC has a weak positive to neutral PDO with a weak Nino



Check out the Atlantic...look how cool it gets MAR-MAY laugh.gif
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stuffradio
post Jul 12 2017, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 11 2017, 08:46 PM) *
Well...last winter weak nina & +PDO.....just saying tongue.gif

Doesn't sound promising tongue.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 13 2017, 12:36 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 12 2017, 06:35 PM) *
Check out the Atlantic...look how cool it gets MAR-MAY laugh.gif

First year ever without Atlantic tropical cyclones? laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 13 2017, 12:39 AM
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Another Nino setback coming



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 16 2017, 09:57 PM
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Latest CFS almost has a stronger Nina than this past winter now. How amusing. It's seeing a big cooling soon, likely because of the forecast enhanced trades.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 16 2017, 09:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Jul 19 2017, 03:17 AM
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Hat tip to Levi Cowan for adding 850mb u wind anomaly to the central Pacific region

Attached File  www.GIFCreator.me_yRU7ie.gif ( 409.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=341

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 19 2017, 03:18 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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