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> July 18-22 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave, Last minute forecasts/ Observations
Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2017, 04:13 AM
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Interesting battle zone situation unfolding in the region. Delineated by the Mason Dixon boundary, some areas down in VA/MD/DE could see century mark values for highs and the overnight lows appear to remain above average as well. Up into PA/NJ, there is lesser heat but still meet criteria of a HW

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So, what about New England? Appear to be spared, for the most part - though could be humid still in the lower NE regions.


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The spine of the Apps, at the lower end of the MidAtl - now, that's some sizzle right there.
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MaineJay
post Jul 18 2017, 05:31 AM
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Looks like one day near 90 up here, but we will be spared any real heat.

GYX
QUOTE
The proximity of the upper level trough will be sufficiently
close enough to our forecast area as it departs to produce more
scattered showers today. The instability increases once again
today with high values of CAPE and relatively steep lapse rates
mainly over southern areas away from the coastline. A few of the
storms may contain locally very heavy rainfall.

There will be areas of fog early that will need to mix out.
Eventually, partial mid July sunshine will yield max
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s over much of New Hampshire
and adjacent portions of interior western Maine. Less sunshine
and the influence of a maritime layer will keep areas outside
interior western Maine in the 70s, with the coolest location
once again the Midcoast region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fog redevelops tonight, however perhaps not as widespread or
dense as the low level flow attempts to become more westerly
with time. Dew point values will remain sufficiently high to
keep most areas in the 60s for overnight lows.

On Wednesday, this developing westerly flow aloft allows H8
temperatures to peak out at +16C. With sunshine across the
region, expect very warm temperatures with readings topping out
at 90 degrees over portions of southern interior New Hampshire.
80s can be expected most elsewhere
, with the Midcoast region
cooler, in the lower 70s near the shoreline. Dew points will
remain in the mid to upper 60s as well, making it feel a few
degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad scale flow pattern this week features a large ridge of
high pressure over the Great Plains where building heat will
warm temperatures into the low 100s. Another ridge covers much
of the Atlantic with a rather persistent high center near
Bermuda. In the weakness between these two ridges, a weak trough
persists over the East Coast of the US which has brought a few
rounds of showers and storms the past few days. The core of the
jet stream remains near or just north of the Canadian border,
with the warm and muggy conditions spilling northward into New
England
. Meanwhile, to the north of the Westerlies up in the
Arctic a series of large upper lows will meander around the
northern latitudes, with the northern Canada low eventually
making progress southward across Hudson Bay and into Quebec late
in the week. As this low moves south it will send a series of
cold fronts through New England, with the jet stream shifting
south over New England. This will put us within or to the north
of the storm track late this weekend and into early next week,
leading to cool temperatures and frequent rain chances.

Trying to time the various fronts which move through our region
later this week is particularly difficult as the waves which
drive these fronts through the Westerlies are not very well
resolved by the various models. The impact on the forecast comes
into play if one or more of these fronts were to move through
during the daytime, providing greater support for showers and
thunderstorms. The greatest air mass change does not come until
Friday or Friday night when the heat and humidity finally gets
shoved out of here, being replaced by cooler and less humid
weather for Saturday
. The front stalls somewhere near southern
New England this weekend, with several areas of low pressure
tracking along this meandering front through early next week.
With the storm track generally to our south, expect temperatures
to trend below normal with several chances for rain late this
weekend and into early next week.


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2017, 06:10 AM
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NWS P&C has us at 85-87 through Sunday of this week. That is smoking for MBY. Let's see how hot we get.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Ahoff
post Jul 18 2017, 06:38 AM
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Pittsburgh will proabably miss 90 everyday as usual, lol!
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KENNYP2339
post Jul 18 2017, 07:13 AM
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Bring it on!!! Starting to build my wood sheds this week, I love baking in the driveway
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bradjl2009
post Jul 18 2017, 07:57 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jul 18 2017, 07:38 AM) *
Pittsburgh will proabably miss 90 everyday as usual, lol!

Good. That would be fine by me.
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Ahoff
post Jul 18 2017, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Jul 18 2017, 08:57 AM) *
Good. That would be fine by me.


Not me! Although my church does have its festival this week, so because I have to be outside all week we'll probably make it to 95 everyday!
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2017, 08:06 AM
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HWO

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated flash flooding is possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are possible Wednesday through
Sunday for lower elevation locations. As of now Friday looks to be
the hottest day.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



"Down state" as the western Marylanders call it sure looks to be in the cooker this week.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2017, 11:48 AM
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80.5F, but like a swamp. DP 72.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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phillyfan
post Jul 18 2017, 12:19 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 18 2017, 12:48 PM) *
80.5F, but like a swamp. DP 72.

85 here, heat index 93, DP 75


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2017, 01:09 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 18 2017, 01:19 PM) *
85 here, heat index 93, DP 75


ok, that's a swamp.

Boomers are growing right on the hill currently. Down to 77F. Well see if they pull out and we warm up.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 18 2017, 01:18 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Eine Kleine Wett...
post Jul 18 2017, 01:25 PM
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90 here, heat index 98, dewpoint at 73
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 18 2017, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 18 2017, 12:48 PM) *
80.5F, but like a swamp. DP 72.



QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 18 2017, 01:19 PM) *
85 here, heat index 93, DP 75


This is just dumb last two OBS out of dover Delaware

KDOV 181858Z 11009KT 10SM CLR 30/29 A3005 RMK AO2A SLP179 T02950292 $
KDOV 181758Z 09006KT 10SM FEW170 30/30 A3007 RMK AO2A SLP186 T02970297 10297 20227 58012 $

Dewpoint has been sitting at 85/85.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2017, 03:03 PM
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Weather in a word - UGH!

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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2017, 03:08 PM
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Just peeped the CTP Plotter for the next 4 days. DP does not drop much, if at all, below 70F for the duration - even at night. It's as if they have flat lined


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rtcemc
post Jul 18 2017, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 18 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Just peeped the CTP Plotter for the next 4 days. DP does not drop much, if at all, below 70F for the duration - even at night. It's as if they have flat lined


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I'm still trying to figure out what delineated means ohmy.gif Yup, have a member/guest tourney tomorrow and the ball will not be flying in that soup. Starts at 1 pm also. I guess I will take it over the Open weather, but last time I played in this type of H & H, I faded on the back nine. Beers are NOT good for hydration, correct unsure.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2017, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jul 18 2017, 04:40 PM) *
I'm still trying to figure out what delineated means ohmy.gif Yup, have a member/guest tourney tomorrow and the ball will not be flying in that soup. Starts at 1 pm also. I guess I will take it over the Open weather, but last time I played in this type of H & H, I faded on the back nine. Beers are NOT good for hydration, correct unsure.gif

I (foolishly?) signed up for one on 8/4 and it too starts after Noon. Really hoping to get some weather magic working on that day.

Beer is excellent hydration - it's the alcohol that will dry you out. tongue.gif Massive intake the day before might help but, as someone who fades after 5 as soon as it gets above 80F, I can't begin to imagine.
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phillyfan
post Jul 18 2017, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 18 2017, 02:09 PM) *
ok, that's a swamp.

Boomers are growing right on the hill currently. Down to 77F. Well see if they pull out and we warm up.

Topped out at 90 with a heat index of 101 and a dp of 75. sad.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2017, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 18 2017, 05:09 PM) *
Topped out at 90 with a heat index of 101 and a dp of 75. sad.gif

Disgusting


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rtcemc
post Jul 18 2017, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 18 2017, 05:14 PM) *
Disgusting


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Sort of got caught off guard with this today. Thought the humidity levels were not supposed to be to bad today, and start climbing tomorrow? It is brutal out there; can't even hit balls. Of course, here in the new t-storm capital of the planet, I'm sure one of these small renegade storms will blow up and whack us and prevent the grass mowing from being completed again. Yesterday, I left the rider mower out too, but had the kids cover it in time. I certainly wouldn't want anything to happen to that priceless 1983 relic laugh.gif
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