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> Summer 2015
MrMusic
post May 20 2015, 08:18 AM
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Accuweather has released their summer forecast for 2015.

Have a look, and add your thoughts/observations


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...k-2015/47335309




--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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knorthern_knight
post May 20 2015, 11:08 PM
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CFSv2 has July...
  • BC+Alberta warmer than average
  • Man+Sask+NW Ontario near normal
  • rest of Ont + western QC cooler
  • Eastern QC + Atlantic near normal
I don't trust them beyond 6 weeks

Attached File  usT2mMonInd2.gif ( 31.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
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tml78
post May 29 2015, 06:57 AM
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Hey guys...The next 7-10 days...what can we expect temperature wise for the gta?
Looks like temperatures will be cooling down Sunday below seasonal temps....
Will this trend continue this next week?
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knorthern_knight
post May 29 2015, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(tml78 @ May 29 2015, 06:57 AM) *
Hey guys...The next 7-10 days...what can we expect temperature wise for the gta?
Looks like temperatures will be cooling down Sunday below seasonal temps....
Will this trend continue this next week?

EC's 7-day forecast http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html shows a cool wet Saturday afternoon and Sunday. By Thursday/Friday temperatures recover to daytime highs in the low 20's and overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens.

A more detailed, longer range, forecast is available at http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html based on NAEFS model output. Note that it defaults to Ottawa, and you have to select Toronto Pearson from the "STATION" drop-down menu. It shows basically the same as the 7-day forecast, i.e temperatures recovering by Friday.
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travis3000
post May 29 2015, 09:31 PM
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IMO temps will be above normal by Friday.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Jun 2 2015, 08:15 AM
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another gorgeous week on tap.

TWN released their summer forecast yesterday and already this morning I've seen one local station in Hamilton with a web poll that states:

"now that we know another cool summer is coming, what do you think?"

And media outfits wonder why folks my age and younger never take them seriously anymore. Lol

Most long range outlooks are hinting at near normal temps IMBY, but if the Apr/May pattern were to continue that could bust big time.



--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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PGM
post Jun 7 2015, 12:50 PM
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Posts: 929
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Member No.: 29,229





I'm going to begin posting long range/marginal severe threats on here instead of on separate threads as there isn't much activity on the forums right now.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Last freeze (below 0*C):
Days entirely below freezing: 27+
Coldest temperature: -19.7C (January 7th)

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm (December 12th)
Season total: 100cm
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Andros
post Jun 8 2015, 06:56 AM
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We got a good soaking, but I didn't notice any thunderstorms last night. If there were any, I slept straight through them. TWN says "risk of strong thunderstorms" for later today though - any thoughts on that?
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bwfan
post Jun 12 2015, 03:17 PM
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Those forecasts were a bust on both accounts for SW Ontario. Garden variety storms rolled through southern lake Huron and up towards KW area early this morning - nothing crazy.

So far, EC, NWS, and Ontario Tornado watch have been way off the mark with forecasting. Even the models are not accurate lately. Even the Storm Prediction Centre has been revising at the last minute.

I think the issue is the lakes are still too cold and any warm air mass is modified too much to cause severe weather. You can't have real decent storms/tornado chances with the cooler lakes around.

Once things heat up for an extended period of time and the lakes warm, perhaps things will pan out from a severe weather standpoint in SW Ontario.

QUOTE(Andros @ Jun 8 2015, 06:56 AM) *
We got a good soaking, but I didn't notice any thunderstorms last night. If there were any, I slept straight through them. TWN says "risk of strong thunderstorms" for later today though - any thoughts on that?

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PGM
post Jun 12 2015, 03:37 PM
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Member No.: 29,229





QUOTE(bwfan @ Jun 12 2015, 04:17 PM) *
Those forecasts were a bust on both accounts for SW Ontario. Garden variety storms rolled through southern lake Huron and up towards KW area early this morning - nothing crazy.

So far, EC, NWS, and Ontario Tornado watch have been way off the mark with forecasting. Even the models are not accurate lately. Even the Storm Prediction Centre has been revising at the last minute.

I think the issue is the lakes are still too cold and any warm air mass is modified too much to cause severe weather. You can't have real decent storms/tornado chances with the cooler lakes around.

Once things heat up for an extended period of time and the lakes warm, perhaps things will pan out from a severe weather standpoint in SW Ontario.

There never really was any good storm chances today. OTW was hyping the threat


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Last freeze (below 0*C):
Days entirely below freezing: 27+
Coldest temperature: -19.7C (January 7th)

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm (December 12th)
Season total: 100cm
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PGM
post Jun 14 2015, 10:35 AM
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From: Northdale, Ontario
Member No.: 29,229





Rain rain go away. Worst climo ever.
Attached File  wx1.png ( 14.76K ) Number of downloads: 5



--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Last freeze (below 0*C):
Days entirely below freezing: 27+
Coldest temperature: -19.7C (January 7th)

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm (December 12th)
Season total: 100cm
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Bsim71
post Jun 14 2015, 05:38 PM
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Posts: 108
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Member No.: 23,361





Yep. Almost has me wishing for May's pattern to return. Good that we got much needed moisture but I think we've had enough for now. What I wouldn't give for a drier air mass. Muggies have been brutal the past few days round here.

This post has been edited by Bsim71: Jun 14 2015, 05:40 PM
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MrMusic
post Jun 16 2015, 10:37 AM
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we've done well so far this month in erasing drought concerns around Hamilton and the entire province.

Areas to our SW and N seem to have really been buried in rain. A little too much it sounds like.

Depending on the track of Bill, some of us could get more rain later this week.

And yes, humid as heck yesterday. Wow.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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knorthern_knight
post Jun 16 2015, 09:09 PM
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Posts: 869
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From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jun 16 2015, 10:37 AM) *
we've done well so far this month in erasing drought concerns around Hamilton and the entire province.

Areas to our SW and N seem to have really been buried in rain. A little too much it sounds like.

Depending on the track of Bill, some of us could get more rain later this week.

And yes, humid as heck yesterday. Wow.

The current progs indicate that it recurves NE and just misses Ontario+Quebec. The Maritimes could get some precip. I don't know if it's the remnants of Bill, or a front that just happens to go through at about the same time...

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MrMusic
post Jun 17 2015, 08:38 AM
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so far in June, the average high in Hamilton is 21.5. If the next couple weeks forecast comes to pass we will end up right around normal for the month.
A bit below norm so far for the month.

Also, for others in the area, EC now has a weather station at the new Tim Hortons Stadium called 'Hamilton Soccer' in the listing of area weather stations.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
Go to the top of the page
 
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travis3000
post Jun 17 2015, 06:17 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,621
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





So far in Alliston the average high for the month of June so far is exactly 23.0C which is about normal for the month. No real heat spells yet. Our warmest day has been 28.7C, surprising to see no 30C weather in June yet, and doesn't look like we can expect any at least for the next 10 days.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jun 18 2015, 09:07 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,621
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





How cool will the next 14 days be for the Greater Toronto Area? Here's a look....

Consider the average high for this period is around 25C.

Today= 25C
June 19th= 20C
June 20th= 26C
June 21st= 26C
June 22nd= 25C
June 23rd= 23C
June 24th= 22C
June 25th= 22C
June 26th= 21C
June 27th= 21C
June 28th= 27C
June 29th= 15C
June 30th= 18C
July 1st= 19C
July 2nd= 21C
July 3rd= 24C

As you can see , temps are trending below normal for the next 15 days across Southern Ontario. Downright chilly for the couple days before Canada Day, and even leading into July it's below normal. No hot stretches at all. In fact, based on the long range models I think it's possible we will not get any hot spells in Southern Ontario at all this summer (3 or more days above 30C).


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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puttin
post Jun 18 2015, 09:11 AM
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Posts: 1,730
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From: Newmarket
Member No.: 12,834





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jun 18 2015, 10:07 AM) *
How cool will the next 14 days be for the Greater Toronto Area? Here's a look....


As you can see , temps are trending below normal for the next 15 days across Southern Ontario. Downright chilly for the couple days before Canada Day, and even leading into July it's below normal. No hot stretches at all. In fact, based on the long range models I think it's possible we will not get any hot spells in Southern Ontario at all this summer (3 or more days above 30C).


I think the only saving grace for me anyways is the humidity. At least it feels summery if the temperatures don't say it.
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travis3000
post Jun 18 2015, 02:33 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,621
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





^ Yes the humidity makes 22-24C feel like 28-30C. That is our saving grace. Take today for instance, feels like a hot day. We got up to 27C with a 32C humidex. Feels very hot. However I am still missing those sunny hot 28-30C days with humidity of 34-38C.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 39cm (18cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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PGM
post Jun 18 2015, 04:59 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 929
Joined: 9-February 14
From: Northdale, Ontario
Member No.: 29,229





Pretty nice evening mcs in store for parts of SW Ontario.
Attached File  Screenshot_2015_06_18_18_02_41.png ( 226.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Last freeze (below 0*C):
Days entirely below freezing: 27+
Coldest temperature: -19.7C (January 7th)

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 33cm (December 12th)
Season total: 100cm
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