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> February 18-25 MidAtl/NE Warmth, Observations
Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2017, 06:33 PM
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Might as well...

To be voted as the least popular thread of the season.

AFDCTP

QUOTE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
......

Afterward...GEFS and EC guidance still indicates above normal
1000-500 mb thickness and 850 mb temps with a distinct split
flow pattern across the central and eastern U.S. The passage of
a weak northern stream trough that will bring a few periods of
clouds and generally non-measurable sprinkles to the northern
and western mtns later Saturday into Sunday, will be followed
by yet another sharp ridge aloft and sprawling sfc high will
bring fair and unseasonably mild air right through early next
week, with little threat for measurable precip before the middle
of next week.

For Sat night through Tuesday night, overnight low temps (in
the 30s Central and NW PA...to near 40F at times in the SE) will
be consistently mild and near normal highs in the greater
Harrisburg area, and as much as 8-10 deg above what we see at 2
pm in mid February across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands.

Daytime highs during this same period will vary from the upper
40s to near 50F across the NW mtns...to the mid and upper 50s in
the SE (a whopping 15-20F above normal highs).

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 20 2017, 07:36 AM
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Feb 14 2017, 10:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 14 2017, 06:33 PM) *
Might as well...

To be voted as the least popular thread of the season.

AFDCTP

[/b][/color]
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

Yep looking like near 60 here this coming weekend. Time to fire up the grill smile.gif


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

snow totals imby
Winter 2016-2017...
Dec 7th...TRACE
Dec 30th...TRACE
Jan 5-6th... .25 inches
Jan 7th... 1.0 inches
-----------------------------------
Season snow total so far..... 1.25 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 10:12 PM
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From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
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12z GEFS 1pm Temps through 2/23.

That's right.. GEFS. Not Op. Fun.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Feb 14 2017, 10:13 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 14 2017, 10:12 PM) *
12z GEFS 1pm Temps through 2/23.

That's right.. GEFS. Not Op. Fun.

Attached Image

Wow 50s for me all thru the next 8 days!

This post has been edited by BLIZZARD_OF_79: Feb 14 2017, 10:14 PM


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

snow totals imby
Winter 2016-2017...
Dec 7th...TRACE
Dec 30th...TRACE
Jan 5-6th... .25 inches
Jan 7th... 1.0 inches
-----------------------------------
Season snow total so far..... 1.25 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 10:14 PM
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QUOTE(BLIZZARD_OF_79 @ Feb 14 2017, 10:13 PM) *
Wow 50s for me all thru the next 8 days!


Grease up that sled!


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Feb 14 2017, 10:15 PM
Post #6




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 14 2017, 10:14 PM) *
Grease up that sled!

Lmaoo !!!


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

snow totals imby
Winter 2016-2017...
Dec 7th...TRACE
Dec 30th...TRACE
Jan 5-6th... .25 inches
Jan 7th... 1.0 inches
-----------------------------------
Season snow total so far..... 1.25 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
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Undertakerson
post Feb 15 2017, 06:40 AM
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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After a chilly start, Friday will be the transition period
toward extended stretch of dry and unseasonably mild spring-like
weather expected to last from the weekend into early next week.
A building upper level ridge with strong positive 500 HPA
height anomaly will support above normal warmth with temperature
departures running +10-20 degrees above late February
climatology.
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RobB
post Feb 15 2017, 07:01 AM
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2/15 0Z GEFS 6 to 10 day

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RobB
post Feb 15 2017, 07:03 AM
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2/15 0Z EPS 850s

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NorEaster07
post Feb 15 2017, 07:19 AM
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Looks like the Northeast will escape the bigger anomalies. Looks like the warmth stays west of the Appalachians except 1 or 2 days.

I counted just 3 days total in the 50s next 2 weeks for NYC.


This is the warmest day for NYC metro per GFS6z. Wednesday next week. 60s in Philly.


Attached Image



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 15 2017, 07:20 AM
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Perfect, got to change the oil, fuel filter and air filter in my truck on Saturday
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NorEaster07
post Feb 15 2017, 07:22 AM
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Here's Richmond's temp data this month so far. They already hit 70s and even 80s! So seeing 70s on the map now is like "big deal". lol Meanwhile it's normal temps for MAY!


Get ready for the Cherry Blossoms pics?

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/plo...2&year=2017



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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LUCC
post Feb 15 2017, 01:18 PM
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66 and sunny here Sunday, got to get those golf clubs all shined up and regripped for the new season!!


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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joeman
post Feb 15 2017, 01:27 PM
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6 days out from Sat 18th predicted high daytime temps in western CT ..all subject to change

Sat 42
Sun 51
Mon 46
Tues 46
Wed 45
Thurs 41


--------------------
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stilko4
post Feb 15 2017, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 15 2017, 01:18 PM) *
66 and sunny here Sunday, got to get those golf clubs all shined up and regripped for the new season!!

bring on the warmth, spring ,beach ...all the pros of living on the coast
oh and the mets world series!


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Undertakerson
post Feb 16 2017, 05:56 AM
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QUOTE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moderating temps and light winds expected Friday, as surface
ridge passes east of Pa. Model RH time sections support a mostly
sunny day on balance, but an approaching warm front could
spread increasing clouds into the western counties late.

Much warmer conditions still on tap for this weekend, as
Pacific air mass overspreads the state. A weak cold front will
push into the region Sat night. However, no cold air to tap
across Canada, so warm weather should continue unbated into next
week as anomalous upper ridge axis shifts from the Miss Valley
to the northeast CONUS. 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both support the
idea of fair/warm weather early next week with passage of
surface ridge.
Increasing model spread noted toward the middle
of next week with NAEFS indicating a chance of showers with
approach of a shortwave/cold front over the Grt Lks and ECENS
favoring a drier forecast with a weaker shortwave passing well
north of Pa.

The main story into next week will be the unseasonably warm
weather. All med range guidance indicating 925/805mb well above
seasonal norms with temps max temperatures progged to be 10 to
20 degrees above normal and min temps mainly above freezing
through the middle of next week
.
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RobB
post Feb 16 2017, 09:00 AM
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2/16 0Z GEFS

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RobB
post Feb 16 2017, 09:02 AM
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2/16 0Z EPS 5 day 850 temps:


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LUCC
post Feb 16 2017, 09:15 AM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 15 2017, 05:57 PM) *
bring on the warmth, spring ,beach ...all the pros of living on the coast
oh and the mets world series!

Go Mets! If their pitchers stay healthy not many teams will be able to hang with them. cool.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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joeman
post Feb 16 2017, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 16 2017, 09:15 AM) *
Go Mets! If their pitchers stay healthy not many teams will be able to hang with them. cool.gif

------------------------
huge if right there


--------------------
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