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> Dec. 23/24 West/California 'Storm' : Rain and mountain snow, Short term (1-3 days): Forecast and OBS...next: late Christmas Day
idecline
post Dec 6 2016, 05:47 PM
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Jet stream bringing in another a series of systems..
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Rain along California coast and into Oregon Thu./Fri. Mountain snow in Cascades and Sierras could be plentiful with cold air in place...
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OPC has jet pointed right at Ore./Cal. border
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Unusual that so many 'waves' are at or below 40o latitude...seems to be some kind of parade...
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as things get sorted out the jet stays directly at same latitude according to OPC 96hr

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Too many 'features' come into play in the next 4-5 days to be sure of the 96hr OPC map...
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We have already had a 'wet' October and November in California...and this looks nothing like an El Nino or La Nina pattern to me

The massive unpredictability of a La Nada (near normal) ENSO pattern...means great 'volatility' to idee
huh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 21 2016, 07:23 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Dec 12 2016, 05:56 PM
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We are still under the 'zonal' flow here in the San Francisco Bay Area...plentiful rains, mostly cloudy conditions, and somewhat cool conditions (for California rolleyes.gif )...

With the continuing fast jet flow coming into the West...another stronger system is gearing up just north of Hawaii...will it arrive?
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From all appearances...this low latitude, moisture-infused storm will move into California on Thursday...spreading generous amounts of rain into the coastal mountains of Northern California...
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and perhaps sending rain into the southland later in the week...with heavy snow at the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountains...
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it looks like the energy will progress across the Southwest...creating a snowstorm in the southern Rockies...with a strong push by the jet stream...
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A massive low is churning away to the West... and looks to become a 'hurricane' strength extratropical system moving into the Bering Sea...
this could put a 'kink' in the current 'zonal' flow that may attenuate the jet stream flow into a 'wavier' pattern...

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Check the ~952mb low as it is pulled quickly north and a potential 'rapidly intensifying' 980mb low heading into SW Alaska...and the ~1035mb HP forming off the West Coast...we have seen the likes before... wink.gif

Game changers....?

This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 12 2016, 06:00 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Dec 21 2016, 07:34 PM
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A big storm is predicted to come down from the NW flow of the jet late Thursday night into Friday...
Perhaps tapping some efficient moisture streams to bring heavy rainfall to the SF Bay Area ... and West Coast...
Attached Image

This Water Vapor view shows the storm track sliding south... with some sub-tropical moisture being ejected into the Southwest ahead of this storm...

OPC view for Friday
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Storms seem to redeveloping after being pushed north by the large ridge offshore and flowing down the 'hill' into Oregon and California...next big system is out past date line...but appears to greatly flatten ridge by Sunday night...(late Christmas Day presents?)

5 Day QPF's show generous rain/snowfall all along West Coast with energy moving into SW also...
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OPC 96hr shows that perhaps late Christmas Day into Monday storms will be potentially even more vigorous...
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This post has been edited by idecline: Dec 21 2016, 07:36 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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FrostFuzz
post Dec 21 2016, 09:18 PM
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This first system is performing well here so far. Should easily be above where we should be for December after this. January and February will be key though if we want to put a dent in the drought down here. Those months have consistently been below average these past few years.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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Dave_H
post Dec 22 2016, 02:39 PM
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That was unexpected, a lot of sites predicted little or no rain for Wednesday.
Ended up getting 1.24" for a season total of 3.54 so far.

Thank you very much idecline for all your informative posts, although not a lot of people reply I'm sure there are many others like me who always look for your topics.

Dave
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Mike1014
post Dec 22 2016, 05:49 PM
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Looks like the effects of last year's Super Godzilla El Nino decided to show up a year later! laugh.gif

We're getting hammered here in the Coachella Valley from this sub-tropical like storm. Rain has been widespread in the 1" to 1.5" all over the valley in the past day and a half. It's even to the point where the Whitewater River is flowing and causing Flood Advisories to pop up.

December sure has been a super wet one all over So Cal, but we definitely need it! Gotta make up for those below average winters the last 4-5 years. The next "colder" storm looks to be a real doozy as well.

This post has been edited by Mike1014: Dec 22 2016, 05:50 PM
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