Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Dec 24 - ? cold snap; Possible LES
knorthern_knight
post Dec 31 2017, 10:17 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 916
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





FIM temperature prog is jumping around on the system on January the 8th/9th.
  • Dec 30th 12Z had a major GLC.
  • Dec 31st 00Z had almost a "JBC" (James Bay Cutter)
  • Dec 31st 12Z has a regular GLC
Here's my latest text scripting effort, deriving output from GFS text forecasts from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/ It still requires minor manual editing after being run. Stations are listed across the top. Date/time and hours into the future is listed along the left side. Temperatures, in degrees F, are listed in the resulting grid. The forecast only goes out 6 days.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
  12Z 31DEC 2017 CYXU   CYKF   CYHM   CYYZ   CYOW   CYUL   CYQB
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp
                 Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F
    0 12/31 12Z    0     -2     -3     -2    -10     -8     -5
    3 12/31 15Z    4      2      1      0     -5     -4     -4
    6 12/31 18Z    8      7      6      4     -1      0     -2
    9 12/31 21Z   11      7      6      6     -3     -2     -5
   12 01/01 00Z    8      2      1      5     -9     -7     -9
   15 01/01 03Z    4      0      0      3    -11    -10    -11
   18 01/01 06Z    0      2      0      2    -13    -12    -13
   21 01/01 09Z   -2      4      3      6    -15    -13    -14
   24 01/01 12Z   -3      2      0      8    -17    -15    -14
   27 01/01 15Z    2      9      6     13     -9    -10    -10
   30 01/01 18Z    8     12     11     17     -1     -4     -5
   33 01/01 21Z   10     12     11     16     -4     -6     -6
   36 01/02 00Z    9      9     10     12     -8    -10     -9
   39 01/02 03Z    9      5      8      7     -9    -11    -11
   42 01/02 06Z    5      4      7      2    -11    -13    -13
   45 01/02 09Z    0     10      7     10    -13    -13    -15
   48 01/02 12Z   -1      5      4     14    -15    -14    -16
   51 01/02 15Z    7      7      7     12     -7     -7    -10
   54 01/02 18Z   12     14     13     17      2      0     -5
   57 01/02 21Z   12     15     13     19     13      3     -7
   60 01/03 00Z    9     14     10     17     16      4    -10
   63 01/03 03Z    3      8      8     15     14      8     -7
   66 01/03 06Z   -2      0      6     10     11      8     -7
   69 01/03 09Z   -2     -2      6      7      9      9     -8
   72 01/03 12Z    0     -1      9      9      9      8     -7
   75 01/03 15Z    4      3     13     11     16     15      3
   78 01/03 18Z   10     10     17     17     19     18     11
   81 01/03 21Z   10     10     16     17     17     16     10
   84 01/04 00Z    8      8     11     13     15     13      8
   87 01/04 03Z    7      7      8     13     15     12      9
   90 01/04 06Z   10     11      9     14     17     14      9
   93 01/04 09Z    7      2      6     10     17     12      7
   96 01/04 12Z    7     -2     -1      4     12     13      7
   99 01/04 15Z    6      0      1      2     12     15     12
  102 01/04 18Z    5      1      4      3      9     18     17
  105 01/04 21Z    4     -2      1      2      1     15     15
  108 01/05 00Z    0     -6     -5     -1     -4     13     14
  111 01/05 03Z   -4     -6     -7     -3     -6      8     15
  114 01/05 06Z   -5     -7     -7     -5     -9      2     14
  117 01/05 09Z   -6     -8     -8     -5    -11     -1     14
  120 01/05 12Z   -5     -9     -9     -5    -14     -4      9
  123 01/05 15Z   -3     -6     -4     -3    -15     -6      6
  126 01/05 18Z    1     -3      0     -1    -12     -6      4
  129 01/05 21Z    2     -5     -2      0    -11     -6      2
  132 01/06 00Z    0    -10     -9     -1    -13     -7      0
  135 01/06 03Z   -2     -9    -10     -4    -15     -9     -1
  138 01/06 06Z   -7     -8    -11     -6    -16    -10     -3
  141 01/06 09Z  -10     -8    -10     -7    -18    -13     -6
  144 01/06 12Z   -8     -9    -11     -7    -20    -14     -7

CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec


This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Dec 31 2017, 10:40 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
humidex
post Jan 1 2018, 08:24 AM
Post #22




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 40
Joined: 9-March 14
From: Harwood on Rice lake Ontario
Member No.: 29,370





We reached a low temp last night of - 31.8c in Harwood last night, on New Years Eve. It has recovered to -27, which is good, because a bunch of us from work are moving a co-worker to a new apartment this morning. huh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 1 2018, 09:06 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 916
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





Here's a cut dowm derived output from the 00Z GFS text prog. It only goes 6 days (144 hours). I've edited out the first few days. Also, the FIM maps show the system on the 8th a bit further south. Toronto might sneak through that system remaining below freezing.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
  0Z  1JAN 2018  CYXU   CYKF   CYHM   CYYZ   CYOW   CYUL   CYQB
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp
                 Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F
   93 01/04 21Z    7      0      1      4      1     16     14
   96 01/05 00Z    4     -8     -6      0     -4      3     12
   99 01/05 03Z    2     -9     -9     -2     -6     -2     11
  102 01/05 06Z   -1     -8     -9     -4     -7     -1     12
  105 01/05 09Z   -2     -8     -9     -5     -9     -1     10
  108 01/05 12Z   -3     -9     -9     -7    -12     -4      5
  111 01/05 15Z   -2     -4     -5     -5    -12     -6      2
  114 01/05 18Z    0     -1      0      0    -10     -5      1
  117 01/05 21Z    2     -4     -1      1    -12     -7     -3
  120 01/06 00Z    0    -10     -9     -2    -16    -10     -6
  123 01/06 03Z   -1    -11    -12     -6    -19    -13     -9
  126 01/06 06Z   -5    -11    -13    -10    -21    -16    -11
  129 01/06 09Z   -5    -12    -14    -12    -22    -18    -14
  132 01/06 12Z   -3    -13    -13    -13    -24    -20    -15
  135 01/06 15Z    0     -6     -7    -10    -19    -19    -13
  138 01/06 18Z    6      0      0     -1    -13    -14    -10
  141 01/06 21Z    5      1      3      2    -13    -12    -10
  144 01/07 00Z   -3     -3     -1     -1    -17    -14    -11

CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
CYUL Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
CYQB Québec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec


Attached File  temp_2m_f186.png ( 60.77K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 63.47K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
sledder
post Jan 1 2018, 10:15 AM
Post #24




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 23
Joined: 24-December 09
From: Muskoka
Member No.: 20,544





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 31 2017, 02:34 PM) *
There may be some LES off a westerly wind Tuesday afternoon, but nothing huge, maybe 5-10cms, even 15cm locally, then a clipper with a cm or so, but nothing big on the horizon...sorry.

Thanks very much for your response. We need system snow as I would think that Georgian Bay must be frozen over now?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 1 2018, 10:56 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 956
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





Look at the squall off Georgian bay at the moment.

Barrie should get rocked in about 20 minutes approx.

There is ice on east side but ice clear in centre and west in the important parts of the lake.
Westerly winds will give you snow as squall going across Huron then Georgian bay will give you decent perhaps impressive totals
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 11:20 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(sledder @ Jan 1 2018, 10:15 AM) *
Thanks very much for your response. We need system snow as I would think that Georgian Bay must be frozen over now?


No, the Bay is relatively open...should be good for LES until later in the month.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 11:22 AM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Jan 1 2018, 10:56 AM) *
Look at the squall off Georgian bay at the moment.

Barrie should get rocked in about 20 minutes approx.

There is ice on east side but ice clear in centre and west in the important parts of the lake.
Westerly winds will give you snow as squall going across Huron then Georgian bay will give you decent perhaps impressive totals


Yep, getting hit now...looking at the latest wind forecast could get a few hours of on and off squalls this afternoon, could see a good 5-10cms.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 1 2018, 11:48 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 1 2018, 11:31 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 956
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





QUOTE(sledder @ Jan 1 2018, 10:15 AM) *
Thanks very much for your response. We need system snow as I would think that Georgian Bay must be frozen over now?


https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/

Here you go you can view ice conditions
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 11:47 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





This is a link to Huron and Georgian Bay Ice . The winds will be shifting around a lot over the coming week or so, which stops the ice from forming large areas of solid sheets, so I would expect GB to stay open till late January. However, other than tomorrow and Wednesday the winds are not favourable for cottage country, but you could se anything from 5-15cms by Thursday.

Attached File  hicecon_00.gif ( 24.06K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 1 2018, 12:46 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





Anyone have any thoughts on my area for this afternoon and evening? EC is calling for 4-6 cms for Brantford. It's to cold to plow laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 1 2018, 01:13 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 918
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Just checked the radar and it looks like theres a couple streamers drifting NW of your area. You might get some flurries or a quick burst of snow at some point today but Id be surprised if you got more than a trace.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 1 2018, 01:15 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 1 2018, 01:13 PM) *
Just checked the radar and it looks like theres a couple streamers drifting NW of your area. You might get some flurries or a quick burst of snow at some point today but Id be surprised if you got more than a trace.

Thanks for looking into it for me. It really is too cold to plow!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 1 2018, 01:23 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 956
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





Snow coming in from north west 400 and Rutherford at the moment passing dusting... Small streamer off Huron.
Snow falling at the moment

This post has been edited by GreatWhiteTornado: Jan 1 2018, 01:24 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 1 2018, 01:42 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 916
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





The 12 Jan 1st GFS text run is available. The REALLY cold part for Ottawa/Montreal and Quebec City is just now coming into range at the far end of the forecast period...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
12Z  1JAN 2018  CYXU   CYKF   CYHM   CYYZ   CYOW   CYUL   CYQB
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp 2m Tmp
                 Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F  Deg F
  102 01/05 18Z    3     -1      1      1     -9     -4      7
  105 01/05 21Z    4     -2      0      2    -10     -6      1
  108 01/06 00Z    2     -9     -6     -1    -13     -8     -2
  111 01/06 03Z    0    -11     -9     -6    -16    -10     -5
  114 01/06 06Z   -4    -11    -12    -10    -18    -13     -9
  117 01/06 09Z   -7    -12    -14    -12    -22    -16    -12
  120 01/06 12Z   -8    -13    -15    -12    -24    -19    -14
  123 01/06 15Z   -7     -6     -9    -11    -19    -18    -13
  126 01/06 18Z   -1      0     -1     -4    -14    -14    -10
  129 01/06 21Z   -1     -2      0      0    -14    -13    -12
  132 01/07 00Z   -3    -11     -9     -5    -19    -16    -15
  135 01/07 03Z   -6    -11    -10     -7    -21    -20    -18
  138 01/07 06Z   -8     -9    -10     -5    -24    -22    -20
  141 01/07 09Z   -7     -5     -8     -3    -26    -24    -22
  144 01/07 12Z   -5     -6     -8      0    -27    -26    -23

CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 1 2018, 01:53 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,000
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Snow coming down fast and furious out there, visibility fairly low.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 01:53 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,786
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Lovely squally New Year's Day sitting in front of the wood burner watching this scene...making up for me missing Christmas Day. Had about 10cm so far:

Attached File  20180101_135042.jpg ( 1.15MB ) Number of downloads: 2
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 1 2018, 02:01 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,000
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Squall dying down here now, short lived but nice while it lasted...

Attached File  IMG_20180101_1351178221.jpg ( 1.76MB ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 1 2018, 02:02 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,000
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 1 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Lovely squally New Year's Day sitting in front of the wood burner watching this scene...making up for me missing Christmas Day. Had about 10cm so far:

Looks great up there!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 1 2018, 02:12 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 1 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Lovely squally New Year's Day sitting in front of the wood burner watching this scene...making up for me missing Christmas Day. Had about 10cm so far:

Attached File  20180101_135042.jpg ( 1.15MB ) Number of downloads: 2

What a great way to enjoy the first day of 2018.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 1 2018, 02:15 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 916
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





The GFS Jan 1st 12Z text forecast has London getting hit with close to a foot of snow during the period of the 3rd to the 6th. Crazy snow ratio of 25:1. I assume this is lake effect, because neither Waterloo nor Hamilton get remotely that much. Anyone want to start a thread? I'm not familiar with lake effect events.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd October 2018 - 08:38 PM