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> Major Lake-Effect Outbreak January 3-6
Astronomer
post Jan 1 2018, 04:04 PM
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Ok, I'll get it started. Looks like the London region is in line to get hammered with this one.

Attached File  Thursday.jpg ( 80.89K ) Number of downloads: 10


Attached File  Friday.jpg ( 81.31K ) Number of downloads: 10


This post has been edited by Astronomer: Jan 1 2018, 04:05 PM
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 1 2018, 04:14 PM
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GFS text output shows approx 25:1 snow ratio!

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  1JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/03 18Z   10      5    0.00         10     -1    0.0
   57 01/03 21Z   10      7    0.01 -SN     10      9    0.3  0.01    0.3
   60 01/04 00Z    7      6    0.01 -SN     10      7    0.3  0.02    0.6
   63 01/04 03Z    7      6    0.01 -SN      7      7    0.3  0.03    0.9
   66 01/04 06Z   12     10    0.01 -SN     12      7    0.1  0.04    1.0
   69 01/04 09Z    7      5    0.00         11      7    0.0
   72 01/04 12Z    8      6    0.01 -SN     11      7    0.4  0.01    0.4
   75 01/04 15Z    7      5    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.3  0.03    0.7
   78 01/04 18Z    8      4    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.4  0.05    1.1
   81 01/04 21Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      8      6    0.4  0.07    1.5
   84 01/05 00Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      8      4    0.4  0.09    1.9
   87 01/05 03Z    2      1    0.02 -SN      4      2    0.4  0.11    2.3
   90 01/05 06Z    0      0    0.02 -SN      4      0    0.4  0.13    2.7
   93 01/05 09Z    0      0    0.02 -SN      0      0    0.7  0.15    3.4
   96 01/05 12Z    0      0    0.02 -SN      1      0    0.7  0.17    4.1
   99 01/05 15Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      1      0    0.7  0.19    4.8
  102 01/05 18Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.7  0.21    5.5
  105 01/05 21Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.7  0.23    6.2
  108 01/06 00Z    2      1    0.02 -SN      5      2    0.6  0.25    6.8
  111 01/06 03Z    0      0    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.7  0.27    7.5
  114 01/06 06Z   -4     -5    0.02 -SN      3     -4    0.5  0.29    8.0
  117 01/06 09Z   -7     -7    0.02 -SN     -4     -7    0.4  0.31    8.4
  120 01/06 12Z   -8     -9    0.01 -SN     -4     -8    0.4  0.32    8.8
  123 01/06 15Z   -7     -9    0.01 -SN     -7     -9    0.4  0.33    9.2
  126 01/06 18Z   -1     -5    0.01 -SN     -1     -9    0.3  0.34    9.5
  129 01/06 21Z   -1     -2    0.01          0     -2    0.1  0.35    9.6
  132 01/07 00Z   -3     -4    0.01 -SN      0     -4    0.1  0.36    9.7
  135 01/07 03Z   -6     -6    0.00 -SN     -3     -6    0.0
  138 01/07 06Z   -8    -11    0.00         -3     -8    0.0
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Lake effect
post Jan 1 2018, 05:42 PM
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Could easily see accumlations in excess of 50cms in some parts around London.
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PGM
post Jan 1 2018, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 1 2018, 05:42 PM) *
Could easily see accumlations in excess of 50cms in some parts around London.

No thanks, y'all can keep that. I got my 10" snow pack and I'm fine with that. laugh.gif


--------------------
Warm season 2018 stats
Severe weather days: 0
Thunderstorm count: 0
Largest hail: N/A
Strongest thunderstorm related wind gust: N/A

Hottest temperature: N/A
Days entirely above 20*C: 0



Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th – ongoing
Days entirely below freezing: 41
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First flakes: October 31st
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 189.8cm
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TriC
post Jan 1 2018, 07:51 PM
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Could be a big one for London.. We already have a good snow pack already as we have been getting lake effect on and off this past week.. But this up coming one looks like it could be big!


--------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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snowbelt
post Jan 2 2018, 10:36 AM
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This one does look like a good blast for the London area for sure. Need those winds to shift a little more out of the W and the G Bay snow machine will fire up big time. Here's hoping for a little shift......
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Astronomer
post Jan 2 2018, 07:26 PM
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Here's Tuesday's maps for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday:

Attached File  Thurs.jpg ( 109.56K ) Number of downloads: 17


Attached File  Fri.jpg ( 112.68K ) Number of downloads: 10


Attached File  Sat.jpg ( 122.51K ) Number of downloads: 11

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Astronomer
post Jan 3 2018, 10:55 AM
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Anyone willing to hazard a snowfall map for the London event?
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Astronomer
post Jan 3 2018, 11:01 AM
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Model output from "Deep Thunder" as found on Twitter for 12:00 UTC Friday. The Atlantic storm is a beast, but that squall off Huron! This one is going to be interesting.

Attached File  DSoJl_dWkAAVJLL.jpg ( 125.22K ) Number of downloads: 10
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Electone
post Jan 3 2018, 11:11 AM
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Looks like west of the city will see the most activity.
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snowbelt
post Jan 3 2018, 11:27 AM
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I have looked at some wind forecasts this morning and they look to be shifting a bit more NNW which is great news for us snow lovers in the G Bay snow belts . Still looking like the Grand Bend to Goderich area is going to get hit hard Thursday-Saturday . Lots of fetch there for those cold N winds to build up some impressive squalls . I might be the only one here but as I mentioned the winds seem to be shifting a bit more out of the W to a NNW flow over G Bay which will fire up some squalls in the Meaford to Collingwood areas. Both squall areas will stretch inland 100km. I'm sure squall warnings will start being issued for these areas over the next 24hrs

These winds are coming off the backside of that impressive low on the east coast so wind direction in this area will change with the movement of that low.
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Astronomer
post Jan 3 2018, 11:36 AM
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My village of Mount Brydges is mentioned specifically. I may be working from home the next 2 days...

10:48 AM EST Wednesday 03 January 2018
Snow squall watch in effect for:

Goderich - Bluewater - Southern Huron County
London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County
Strathroy - Komoka - Western Middlesex County
Watford - Pinery Park - Eastern Lambton County

Lake effect snow squalls are expected to develop southeast of Lake Huron before dawn on Thursday. Local snowfall amounts of 15 cm in 12 hours are likely.

Current indications suggest that the snow squalls will set up from near Grand Bend and extend inland towards Strathroy and Mount Brydges affecting highways 21, 402 and to a lesser extent the 401.

In addition to the quickly accumulating snow and poor visibilities, very cold wind chill values of minus 20 to 25 are forecast.

Travel may be hazardous due to sudden changes in the weather. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Road closures are possible. Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. If you become stranded in a vehicle do not leave. The vehicle offers a form of protection from the cold. A single person walking through the snow is harder to find than a stranded car or truck.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.
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Lake effect
post Jan 3 2018, 11:45 AM
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So this is my amateur attempt at a prediction for the major squall forming off Huron over the next few days. I have used the 3k NAM for this as I am less familiar with the way the winds work for Huron, compared to GB. The 3k NAM has been very reliable up here in this kind of range, of late.

The squall will form overnight tonight and become strong hitting London in the early hours:

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png ( 241.56K ) Number of downloads: 2


It will then head just West of London, maybe hitting Western sections and stay there for a good 12 hours. This is where the biggest accumulations will be as it will be a static squall with very high accumulation rates. There could be greater than 50cms over a 12-15 hour period.

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 266.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Later on Thursday and into the early hours Friday, the squall will start heading East over central London,

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png ( 270.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png ( 258.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


and then leave the city settling to the North East for several hours.

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_58.png ( 238.02K ) Number of downloads: 1


It will be slow moving and dump 15-25cms as it passes over.

Around this time it looks a big squall will form off GB that will hit Angus and areas to the west of Barrie.

Predictions - timing:

Green - Tonight and late Thursday early hours on Friday

red - most of thursday

Purple Friday into saturday


Attached File  jan_3rd_6th.jpg ( 268.36K ) Number of downloads: 8


Predictions - amounts

red-25-70cms

blue 15-50cms

green 5-20cms
Attached File  London_squall_amounts.jpg ( 269.12K ) Number of downloads: 6


usual caveats apply...squalls are b*ggers to predict! The amounts could be very different and locales could be as well smile.gif
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snowbelt
post Jan 3 2018, 12:00 PM
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^^^ Amateur , looks great to me lake effect .
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Lake effect
post Jan 3 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Jan 3 2018, 12:00 PM) *
^^^ Amateur , looks great to me lake effect .


the proof is in the pudding...but it is along the lines of what the 3kNAM predicts in terms of timing...but they go for lower amounts, but they always do.
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 3 2018, 01:36 PM
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And here is the Jan 3, 12Z GFS text output for London...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/03 12Z    2     -1    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/03 15Z    7      2    0.00          7      1    0.0
    6 01/03 18Z   14      9    0.00         14      1    0.0
    9 01/03 21Z   13     10    0.01 -SN     14     13    0.3  0.01    0.3
   12 01/04 00Z   10      9    0.01 -SN     14     11    0.3  0.02    0.6
   15 01/04 03Z    7      7    0.00 -SN     10      7    0.0
   18 01/04 06Z    8      8    0.00         11      6    0.0
   21 01/04 09Z    7      5    0.00         11      7    0.0
   24 01/04 12Z    8      6    0.00         11      6    0.0
   27 01/04 15Z   12      9    0.01 -SN     12      8    0.1  0.01    0.1
   30 01/04 18Z   11      8    0.01 -SN     12      8    0.3  0.02    0.4
   33 01/04 21Z    9      6    0.01 -SN     11      9    0.3  0.03    0.7
   36 01/05 00Z    7      5    0.01 -SN     11      7    0.4  0.04    1.1
   39 01/05 03Z    6      4    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.4  0.06    1.5
   42 01/05 06Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      7      4    0.4  0.08    1.9
   45 01/05 09Z    4      3    0.02 -SN      4      4    0.4  0.10    2.3
   48 01/05 12Z    5      2    0.02 -SN      5      4    0.4  0.12    2.7
   51 01/05 15Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      6      4    0.4  0.14    3.1
   54 01/05 18Z    7      3    0.02 -SN      7      4    0.4  0.16    3.5
   57 01/05 21Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.4  0.18    3.9
   60 01/06 00Z    5      3    0.02 -SN      7      5    0.7  0.20    4.6
   63 01/06 03Z    5      3    0.02 -SN      5      5    0.6  0.22    5.2
   66 01/06 06Z    3      2    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.7  0.24    5.9
   69 01/06 09Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      3      1    0.7  0.26    6.6
   72 01/06 12Z    0     -1    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.7  0.28    7.3
   75 01/06 15Z   -1     -2    0.02 -SN      0     -1    0.4  0.30    7.7
   78 01/06 18Z    2      0    0.01 -SN      2     -1    0.4  0.31    8.1
   81 01/06 21Z    2      0    0.01          3      2    0.1  0.32    8.2
   84 01/07 00Z   -3     -3    0.00 -SN      3     -3    0.1          8.3
   87 01/07 03Z   -7     -9    0.00         -3     -7    0.0
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Astronomer
post Jan 3 2018, 01:47 PM
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Thanks, Lake Effect!
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Lake effect
post Jan 3 2018, 05:01 PM
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The 18Z hi-res NAM has this slightly further East, so London may well get a shedload from this. Somewhere is going to really hit the jackpot, that's for sure, as the band is static and very active.
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TriC
post Jan 3 2018, 05:07 PM
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Ya london looks to get a big evènt front the leatest runs


--------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 3 2018, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE(TriC @ Jan 3 2018, 05:07 PM) *
Ya london looks to get a big evènt front the leatest runs


Agree. This will be a very significant event, with a large impact in the London area. Where exactly the heaviest zone occurs will be tough to pinpoint until the event is underway. The band will shift around some but the longevity of the event is incredible with it lasting through early saturday on the NAM suite.


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