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> Major Lake-Effect Outbreak January 3-6
travis3000
post Jan 3 2018, 08:12 PM
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Attached File  Squalls_Jan_4th_6th.jpg ( 194.73K ) Number of downloads: 10


Heaviest action from this outbreak will be downward from Lake Huron from Goderich to Greater London where 40-55cm is not out of the question based on the current data. Kincardine should also get some action from less intense but persistent bands. Winds will be NNW from this event. GB squalls will be more like a persistent band of heavy flurries from Meaford and Collingwood down to Duntroon and Creemore. Up to 25cm is possible in the Blue Mountain to Meaford corridor, less as you go SE. Once you get down to Borden/Angus, Alliston the effect will be less. About 8-15cm here by Saturday afternoon. Less as you go into Barrie, although there is some confidence the band will drift over towards Barrie Friday, or just west of the city.

Overall, be on alert in Greater London and areas north through Lucan, towards Grand Bend. High threat for 40-60cm by Saturday as band will lock in for many hours in this area.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 3 2018, 08:16 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 3 2018, 08:38 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 3 2018, 08:12 PM) *
Attached File  Squalls_Jan_4th_6th.jpg ( 194.73K ) Number of downloads: 10


Heaviest action from this outbreak will be downward from Lake Huron from Goderich to Greater London where 40-55cm is not out of the question based on the current data. Kincardine should also get some action from less intense but persistent bands. Winds will be NNW from this event. GB squalls will be more like a persistent band of heavy flurries from Meaford and Collingwood down to Duntroon and Creemore. Up to 25cm is possible in the Blue Mountain to Meaford corridor, less as you go SE. Once you get down to Borden/Angus, Alliston the effect will be less. About 8-15cm here by Saturday afternoon. Less as you go into Barrie, although there is some confidence the band will drift over towards Barrie Friday, or just west of the city.

Overall, be on alert in Greater London and areas north through Lucan, towards Grand Bend. High threat for 40-60cm by Saturday as band will lock in for many hours in this area.


So you're seeing the action more just to the North and East of London then? Be intersting to see, I've never dome a predictiom for this area before...just been going on what the NAM 3k has been saying, but even though that is pretty good, it still can get it wrong on a local level, and it has been moving more north and East with passing runs. Someone, so ewhere will get 50-70cms from this.
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bwfan
post Jan 3 2018, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 3 2018, 08:38 PM) *
So you're seeing the action more just to the North and East of London then? Be intersting to see, I've never dome a predictiom for this area before...just been going on what the NAM 3k has been saying, but even though that is pretty good, it still can get it wrong on a local level, and it has been moving more north and East with passing runs. Someone, so ewhere will get 50-70cms from this.


A bust for St Thomas. Hooray!
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travis3000
post Jan 3 2018, 09:15 PM
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These bands are very tricky to forecast. You can be out by only 10KM and it would be a bust for someone. My hunch tells me the juicy spot for this one will be right over the city of London with a slight N/E bias in areas like Lucan to just east of Grand Bend up to Goderich. Any extremely minor changes could shift it 5-10KM west which would make the worlds of difference. But the entire city of London should be on high alert in my opinion for heavy snow. The band looks to stall over this area (with minor wiggles) for 15-20 hours. Expect some big accumulations.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowbelt
post Jan 3 2018, 09:18 PM
Post #25




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Like the maps lake effect and Travis . Definitely seeing a NNW flow off of G bay which should bring some impressive amounts of snow to the Collingwood area as pointed out in the maps . I'm thinking that 20-40 cm area will be further south . Still lots of open water on G bay to brew up some decent squalls.

That Huron Squall will be a beast , I can say that for sure.....
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travis3000
post Jan 4 2018, 12:51 AM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Jan 3 2018, 09:18 PM) *
Like the maps lake effect and Travis . Definitely seeing a NNW flow off of G bay which should bring some impressive amounts of snow to the Collingwood area as pointed out in the maps . I'm thinking that 20-40 cm area will be further south . Still lots of open water on G bay to brew up some decent squalls.

That Huron Squall will be a beast , I can say that for sure.....


Usually that would be the case but when you get into the specifics of the mid level air flow over Georgian Bay, it's highly conducive for a sharp cut off once you go inland. This happens the odd time and based on all the data I've looked at this will be a Huron event, with only the Blue Mountain corridor through Collingwood and down into Duntroon which will take a decent beating (25cm+). Once you head inland through north Dufferin County and South Simcoe County, amounts will drop off drastically. Still wouldn't surprise me to see a few places in-land pick up 8-15cm.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 4 2018, 01:04 AM
Post #27




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Member No.: 12,822





A more detailed look at the Lake Huron outbreak. Squalls will begin to form in the next several hours and continue right into Saturday. They will meander back and forth. I've spent a solid hour looking at the most recent data. Here's a town by town breakdown of the total snow I'm expecting:

Goderich: 15-30cm
Grand Bend: 40-70cm
Ailsa Craig: 50-80cm
Denfield: 50-80cm
Bornish: 40-70cm
Iderton: 50-80cm
Lucan: 35-60cm
Strathroy: 15-30cm
West London: 40-70cm
East London: 20-40cm
Mount Brydges: 20-40cm
Bayfield: 35-55cm
Exeter: 25-50cm

Kincardine: 20-40cm


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 4 2018, 01:31 AM
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Latest GFS text forecast calling for 20 cm for London...

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  4JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/04 00Z   10      9    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/04 03Z    8      8    0.00 -SN     10      8    0.0
    6 01/04 06Z    8      7    0.00         10      7    0.0
    9 01/04 09Z    6      5    0.00          8      6    0.0
   12 01/04 12Z   10      8    0.00         10      6    0.1          0.1
   15 01/04 15Z   10      7    0.01 -SN     11     10    0.3  0.01    0.4
   18 01/04 18Z    9      4    0.01 -SN     11      9    0.1  0.02    0.5
   21 01/04 21Z    6      3    0.00          9      6    0.1          0.6
   24 01/05 00Z    6      3    0.01 -SN      9      5    0.3  0.01    0.9
   27 01/05 03Z    5      3    0.02 -SN      6      5    0.4  0.03    1.3
   30 01/05 06Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      6      3    0.4  0.05    1.7
   33 01/05 09Z    3      2    0.02 -SN      4      3    0.4  0.07    2.1
   36 01/05 12Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      4      2    0.7  0.09    2.8
   39 01/05 15Z    5      2    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.4  0.11    3.2
   42 01/05 18Z    6      2    0.02 -SN      6      3    0.4  0.13    3.6
   45 01/05 21Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.4  0.15    4.0
   48 01/06 00Z    4      1    0.02 -SN      7      4    0.6  0.17    4.6
   51 01/06 03Z    5      2    0.02 -SN      5      4    0.6  0.19    5.2
   54 01/06 06Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.7  0.21    5.9
   57 01/06 09Z    2      1    0.02 -SN      4      2    0.4  0.23    6.3
   60 01/06 12Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      4      1    0.7  0.25    7.0
   63 01/06 15Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      1      0    0.4  0.27    7.4
   66 01/06 18Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      4      0    0.3  0.29    7.7
   69 01/06 21Z    6      4    0.01 -SN      6      4    0.3  0.30    8.0
   72 01/07 00Z    0      0    0.01 -SN      6      0    0.3  0.31    8.3
   75 01/07 03Z   -5     -6    0.00          0     -5    0.0
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 05:09 AM
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6z run of 3km NAM has a 54" max from the huron band using kuchero ratios. Demonstrates the potential at hand.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_4.57.32_AM.png ( 1.8MB ) Number of downloads: 13


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Jan 4 2018, 05:09 AM


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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 05:26 AM
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Snow Squall warnings in effect.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_5.26.15_AM.png ( 181.06K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Lake effect
post Jan 4 2018, 06:26 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Jan 4 2018, 05:09 AM) *
6z run of 3km NAM has a 54" max from the huron band using kuchero ratios. Demonstrates the potential at hand.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_4.57.32_AM.png ( 1.8MB ) Number of downloads: 13


54" would be insane, but given the stability and intensity of this band, not off the cards for some unlucky spot.
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Lake effect
post Jan 4 2018, 08:51 AM
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The NAM 3k is almost autistic in its squall precision now:

Attached File  Screenshot_20180104_084948.jpg ( 233.61K ) Number of downloads: 4
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TriC
post Jan 4 2018, 09:18 AM
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Band will start to move back into london this afternoon as the syatem moves up north on the east coast. Latest HRRR models show it parked over London later for hours!


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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 4 2018, 09:46 AM
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This is really just the perfect setup for a squall to develop and stick in one area. If this actually goes as currently modeled London or somewhere right around London is going to get a lot of snow to say the least.
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Astronomer
post Jan 4 2018, 11:12 AM
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Mount Brydges at about 11:00 AM Thursday

Attached File  January_4_2018_MG_8767a.jpg ( 1.45MB ) Number of downloads: 4
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bwfan
post Jan 4 2018, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(Astronomer @ Jan 4 2018, 11:12 AM) *
Mount Brydges at about 11:00 AM Thursday

Attached File  January_4_2018_MG_8767a.jpg ( 1.45MB ) Number of downloads: 4

St Thomas around 10 ish today.

Attached File  20180104_085504.jpg ( 866.9K ) Number of downloads: 3
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 11:47 AM
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The corridor just west of London has been in the jackpot for numerous events between this winter and last winter while the city itself has only been subject to 2-3 big events. This one could be more spread the wealth.


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Lake effect
post Jan 4 2018, 12:19 PM
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Astronomer, you'd better have plenty of gas for your snowblower. Be surprised if you get less than 50cm from this event. Going to be hitting you hard as this squall heads across your area towards central London, then back West again, then back East.

I still believe Western sections of London and areas to the West will end up being the biggest beneficiaries of this event. The NAM 3k is still holding that line.
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Electone
post Jan 4 2018, 01:33 PM
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Nothing but sunshine in SE London. Future radar shows squall pounding the west of the city, creeping in to the west end and meandering. It can stay there as far as I'm concerned.
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 01:47 PM
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Strathroy and areas west of London getting pounded. Band doesn't seem to be moving in a significant way ATM.


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