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> Major Lake-Effect Outbreak January 3-6
knorthern_knight
post Jan 4 2018, 01:57 PM
Post #41




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Jan 4, 12Z GFS text for London. There's another 3 inches on the 7th/8th, but it looks to me like a separate event.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  4JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 01/04 12Z    8      7    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 01/04 15Z   12      8    0.01 -SN     12      8    0.3  0.01    0.3
    6 01/04 18Z   10      6    0.01 -SN     12      8    0.1  0.02    0.4
    9 01/04 21Z    7      3    0.00         10      7    0.1          0.5
   12 01/05 00Z    4      2    0.01         10      4    0.1  0.01    0.6
   15 01/05 03Z    5      3    0.01 -SN      5      5    0.3  0.02    0.9
   18 01/05 06Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.4  0.04    1.3
   21 01/05 09Z    2      1    0.02 -SN      3      2    0.4  0.06    1.7
   24 01/05 12Z    4      2    0.02 -SN      4      2    0.4  0.08    2.1
   27 01/05 15Z    5      2    0.02 -SN      5      4    0.4  0.10    2.5
   30 01/05 18Z    8      4    0.02 -SN      8      4    0.4  0.12    2.9
   33 01/05 21Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.4  0.14    3.3
   36 01/06 00Z    5      2    0.02 -SN      8      5    0.3  0.16    3.6
   39 01/06 03Z    5      3    0.02 -SN      5      5    0.3  0.18    3.9
   42 01/06 06Z    5      3    0.02 -SN      6      4    0.7  0.20    4.6
   45 01/06 09Z    3      2    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.7  0.22    5.3
   48 01/06 12Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.3  0.24    5.6
   51 01/06 15Z    3      1    0.02 -SN      3      2    0.4  0.26    6.0
   54 01/06 18Z    6      3    0.02 -SN      6      2    0.4  0.28    6.4
   57 01/06 21Z    7      5    0.01 -SN      8      6    0.3  0.29    6.7
   60 01/07 00Z    2      1    0.01 -SN      8      2    0.3  0.30    7.0
   63 01/07 03Z   -4     -5    0.00          2     -4    0.0
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 01:59 PM
Post #42




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Lack of agreement among the models regarding the future of the Huron band. NAM is further east than the RDPS, taking the death band into the heart of London while the RDPS keeps it parked over strathroy for the majority of the event.

Has ~17" downtown.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_1.57.13_PM.png ( 1.8MB ) Number of downloads: 12



Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_1.57.51_PM.png ( 1.33MB ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Jan 4 2018, 02:01 PM


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Astronomer
post Jan 4 2018, 02:09 PM
Post #43




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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 4 2018, 12:19 PM) *
Astronomer, you'd better have plenty of gas for your snowblower. Be surprised if you get less than 50cm from this event. Going to be hitting you hard as this squall heads across your area towards central London, then back West again, then back East.

I still believe Western sections of London and areas to the West will end up being the biggest beneficiaries of this event. The NAM 3k is still holding that line.


It's near white-out conditions, still. That squall has barely moved all morning!
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Astronomer
post Jan 4 2018, 02:11 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Jan 4 2018, 01:47 PM) *
Strathroy and areas west of London getting pounded. Band doesn't seem to be moving in a significant way ATM.



Definitely. It's been quite the event so far. I'll head out in about an hour to measure snowfall.

This post has been edited by Astronomer: Jan 4 2018, 03:02 PM
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Lake effect
post Jan 4 2018, 03:56 PM
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The 18Z 3k NAM keeps this bad-boy in the same spot it is now till tomorrow morning before it shifts North East. Holy cow...that's got to be over a meter for some places.
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TriC
post Jan 4 2018, 04:26 PM
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Just 10min west of london! Band should start moving slowly into london. Wind shift has already started to shift a tad over northen lake huron and moving south.

This post has been edited by TriC: Jan 4 2018, 04:30 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  received_10156018819518695.jpeg ( 293.07K ) Number of downloads: 4
 


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-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Lake effect
post Jan 4 2018, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(TriC @ Jan 4 2018, 04:26 PM) *
Just 10min west of london! Band should start moving slowly into london. Wind shift has already started to shift a tad over northen lake huron and moving south.


I use a broom to de-snow the car now...much easier when you have a foot of the stuff!
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Stl
post Jan 4 2018, 04:43 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Jan 4 2018, 01:59 PM) *
Lack of agreement among the models regarding the future of the Huron band. NAM is further east than the RDPS, taking the death band into the heart of London while the RDPS keeps it parked over strathroy for the majority of the event.

Has ~17" downtown.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_1.57.13_PM.png ( 1.8MB ) Number of downloads: 12

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_04_at_1.57.51_PM.png ( 1.33MB ) Number of downloads: 5


Hi blizzardof96 , how is the kuchera ? it seem overdone especially looking at here.

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snowbelt
post Jan 4 2018, 04:57 PM
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You guys in the London area are getting pounded by these squalls and its not even close to being over. At least another 12-24 hrs of it.
Very light squalls here off and on this afternoon but I can see some bigger squalls forming now on G Bay so hope these can develop into something and move into the area .
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PGM
post Jan 4 2018, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Jan 4 2018, 04:57 PM) *
You guys in the London area are getting pounded by these squalls and its not even close to being over. At least another 12-24 hrs of it.
Very light squalls here off and on this afternoon but I can see some bigger squalls forming now on G Bay so hope these can develop into something and move into the area .


Blue skies in the northeast end. Hard to believe how much is falling a few miles away.


--------------------
Warm season 2018 stats
Severe weather days: 0
Thunderstorm count: 0
Largest hail: N/A
Strongest thunderstorm related wind gust: N/A

Hottest temperature: N/A
Days entirely above 20*C: 0



Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th ongoing
Days entirely below freezing: 41
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First flakes: October 31st
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 189.8cm
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Astronomer
post Jan 4 2018, 05:04 PM
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Hard to measure accurately with drifting, but 20+ cm down in Mount Brydges, and if anything, it's snowing even harder now.
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TriC
post Jan 4 2018, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Jan 4 2018, 05:01 PM) *
Blue skies in the northeast end. Hard to believe how much is falling a few miles away.

That's the cool thing about London one side of the city can get 3 to 4 ft and nothing in the other end of the city. Because london is spread over such a wide area.


--------------------
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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


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PGM
post Jan 4 2018, 05:28 PM
Post #53




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QUOTE(TriC @ Jan 4 2018, 05:09 PM) *
That's the cool thing about London one side of the city can get 3 to 4 ft and nothing in the other end of the city. Because london is spread over such a wide area.


Yes, it's fun! Maybe not so much for the weather forecasters though. wink.gif


--------------------
Warm season 2018 stats
Severe weather days: 0
Thunderstorm count: 0
Largest hail: N/A
Strongest thunderstorm related wind gust: N/A

Hottest temperature: N/A
Days entirely above 20*C: 0



Cold season 2017-18 stats
First/last freeze (below 0*C): November 8th ongoing
Days entirely below freezing: 41
Coldest temperature: -19.7*C on January 7th
First flakes: October 31st
Biggest snowfall: 33cm on December 12th
Season total: 189.8cm
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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 4 2018, 04:43 PM) *
Hi blizzardof96 , how is the kuchera ? it seem overdone especially looking at here.


Kuchera tends to be the most useful with LES events because ratios are rarely as low as 10:1 and normally between 15:1 and 20:1. Always best to err on the side of cation though.


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blizzardOf96
post Jan 4 2018, 05:55 PM
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The banding plume is clearly shifting east on exeter radar now. Only a matter of time before it moves over downtown London. How long it lasts in that position is up for debate.


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TriC
post Jan 4 2018, 06:14 PM
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Band is now in West London... Also as the wind increases with less wind shear tonight and the colder air moves in over the water it should become stronger and more organized.

This post has been edited by TriC: Jan 4 2018, 06:18 PM


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Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


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NWLondon
post Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM
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Hate to say it London guys, but looks like this event could be a near miss. That first band got choked off pretty quickly as it moved east, now being replaced by another strong band in the strathroy area. Having lived there for most of my life, Im pulling for ya, but its not looking good IMO
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TriC
post Jan 4 2018, 06:40 PM
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QUOTE(NWLondon @ Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM) *
Hate to say it London guys, but looks like this event could be a near miss. That first band got choked off pretty quickly as it moved east, now being replaced by another strong band in the strathroy area. Having lived there for most of my life, Im pulling for ya, but its not looking good IMO

Wind change is still not at the south end of the lake yet.. Wind Shear broke that smaller band down give it some time.. smile.gif West end of the city will get hit hard soon..


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Click to see current weather conditions.


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bwfan
post Jan 4 2018, 06:42 PM
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QUOTE(NWLondon @ Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM) *
Hate to say it London guys, but looks like this event could be a near miss. That first band got choked off pretty quickly as it moved east, now being replaced by another strong band in the strathroy area. Having lived there for most of my life, Im pulling for ya, but its not looking good IMO

Radar trends are still slowly shifting East. I agree with TriC on the wind shear lessening and things ramping up overnight, especially with the temps plunging. Maybe a few cms for St Thomas on the way.
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NWLondon
post Jan 4 2018, 06:50 PM
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Hope you guys get whacked tonight. Needless to say we get tons of snow up here but have yet to see anything that compares to the 2006, 2010 and 2013 events in London. Maybe one day laugh.gif
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