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> Jan 8-9 Birthday Threat, Have your snow & eat it!
snowgeek93
post Jan 2 2018, 06:20 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,990
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Yup, plenty of time for change. Hopefully it trends snowier for the region.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 3 2018, 01:36 AM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 910
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





Still looking bad for southern Ontario, with temperatures in mid-30's Fahrenheit and snow switching over to rain at the extreme end of the forecast Jan 9 00Z, i.e. Januaty 8th, 7:00 PM EST. We'll have to wait 12 hours for the next run to catch the forecast for the full event in southern Ontario, let alone Quebec.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 01/07 15Z   12     10    0.02 -SN     12      6    0.4  0.02    0.4
  114 01/07 18Z   17     15    0.06 -SN     17      6    1.1  0.08    1.5
  117 01/07 21Z   21     20    0.06 -SN     21     17    0.8  0.14    2.3
  120 01/08 00Z   23     21    0.04 -SN     23     17    0.6  0.18    2.9
  123 01/08 03Z   26     25    0.03 -SN     26     23    0.3  0.21    3.2
  126 01/08 06Z   28     27    0.01 -SN     28     23    0.0  0.22
  129 01/08 09Z   29     28    0.01 -SN     29     28    0.0  0.23
  132 01/08 12Z   30     29    0.03 -SN     30     28    0.3  0.26    0.3
  135 01/08 15Z   30     29    0.08 -SN     30     29    0.7  0.34    1.0
  138 01/08 18Z   32     32    0.07 -SN     32     29    0.4  0.41    1.4
  141 01/08 21Z   33     33    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.2  0.43    1.6
  144 01/09 00Z   33     32    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.45

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 01/07 15Z   16     14    0.04 -SN     16     13    0.8  0.04    0.8
  114 01/07 18Z   19     18    0.13 -SN     19     13    2.2  0.17    3.0
  117 01/07 21Z   22     21    0.14 -SN     22     19    2.1  0.31    5.1
  120 01/08 00Z   25     24    0.09 -SN     25     19    1.3  0.40    6.4
  123 01/08 03Z   29     27    0.04 -SN     29     25    0.3  0.44    6.7
  126 01/08 06Z   30     29    0.01 -SN     30     25    0.0  0.45
  129 01/08 09Z   31     30    0.01 -SN     31     30    0.1  0.46    0.1
  132 01/08 12Z   31     30    0.04 -SN     31     30    0.4  0.50    0.5
  135 01/08 15Z   32     32    0.09 -SN     32     31    0.6  0.59    1.1
  138 01/08 18Z   33     33    0.06 -SN     33     31    0.3  0.65    1.4
  141 01/08 21Z   33     33    0.01 -RA     33     33    0.0  0.66
  144 01/09 00Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.69

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 01/07 15Z   13     10    0.02 -SN     13     10    0.5  0.02    0.5
  114 01/07 18Z   17     15    0.06 -SN     17     10    1.0  0.08    1.5
  117 01/07 21Z   22     20    0.02 -SN     22     17    0.4  0.10    1.9
  120 01/08 00Z   26     24    0.05 -SN     26     17    0.6  0.15    2.5
  123 01/08 03Z   29     27    0.03 -SN     29     26    0.3  0.18    2.8
  126 01/08 06Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     26    0.0  0.19
  129 01/08 09Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     31    0.0  0.20
  132 01/08 12Z   31     29    0.03 -FZRN   31     30    0.1  0.23    0.1
  135 01/08 15Z   31     30    0.07 -SN     31     30    0.5  0.30    0.6
  138 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.08 -SN     33     30    0.5  0.38    1.1
  141 01/08 21Z   34     33    0.01 -SN     34     33    0.0  0.39
  144 01/09 00Z   34     34    0.02 -RA     34     33    0.0  0.41

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 01/07 15Z   15     12    0.04 -SN     15      9    0.7  0.04    0.7
  114 01/07 18Z   18     16    0.08 -SN     18      9    1.3  0.12    2.0
  117 01/07 21Z   22     19    0.03 -SN     22     18    0.6  0.15    2.6
  120 01/08 00Z   25     23    0.04 -SN     25     18    0.4  0.19    3.0
  123 01/08 03Z   28     25    0.03 -SN     28     25    0.3  0.22    3.3
  126 01/08 06Z   30     28    0.01 -SN     30     25    0.0  0.23
  129 01/08 09Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     30    0.0  0.24
  132 01/08 12Z   32     30    0.04 -SN     32     30    0.4  0.28    0.4
  135 01/08 15Z   32     30    0.10 -SN     32     32    0.7  0.38    1.1
  138 01/08 18Z   34     32    0.13 -SN     34     32    0.7  0.51    1.8
  141 01/08 21Z   35     33    0.03 -RA     35     34    0.1  0.54    1.9
  144 01/09 00Z   35     34    0.02 -RA     35     34    0.1  0.56    2.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  111 01/07 15Z  -12    -14    0.00        -12    -22    0.1          0.1
  114 01/07 18Z   -1     -2    0.03 -SN     -1    -22    0.6  0.03    0.7
  117 01/07 21Z    3      3    0.03 -SN      3      0    0.7  0.06    1.4
  120 01/08 00Z    1      1    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.5  0.08    1.9
  123 01/08 03Z    0      0    0.01 -SN      1      0    0.2  0.09    2.1
  126 01/08 06Z    2      2    0.01 -SN      2      0    0.4  0.10    2.5
  129 01/08 09Z    3      3    0.00 -SN      3      2    0.0
  132 01/08 12Z    3      3    0.01 -SN      4      2    0.2  0.01    0.2
  135 01/08 15Z    5      4    0.02 -SN      5      3    0.3  0.03    0.5
  138 01/08 18Z   10      9    0.06 -SN     10      3    0.8  0.09    1.3
  141 01/08 21Z   13     13    0.15 -SN     13      9    2.0  0.24    3.3
  144 01/09 00Z   20     19    0.05 -SN     20      9    0.6  0.29    3.9
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+Quote Post
snowgeek93
post Jan 3 2018, 09:11 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,990
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





06z GFS:
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png ( 184.53K ) Number of downloads: 5


00z CMC
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 162.45K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by snowgeek93: Jan 3 2018, 09:11 AM


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 3 2018, 01:29 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 910
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





12Z Jan 3 GFS text is looking a little better. Surface temps get to, or slightly above 32 F, but precipitation is forecast to remain as snow. If it would track just a little bit further south,..

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/07 18Z   15     12    0.01 -SN     15     -3    0.0  0.01
  105 01/07 21Z   17     14    0.02 -SN     17     15    0.5  0.03    0.5
  108 01/08 00Z   19     17    0.02 -SN     19     15    0.3  0.05    0.8
  111 01/08 03Z   22     20    0.02 -SN     22     19    0.3  0.07    1.1
  114 01/08 06Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     19    0.2  0.08    1.3
  117 01/08 09Z   26     24    0.01 -SN     26     24    0.1  0.09    1.4
  120 01/08 12Z   27     25    0.03 -SN     27     24    0.3  0.12    1.7
  123 01/08 15Z   29     27    0.03 -SN     29     27    0.3  0.15    2.0
  126 01/08 18Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.0  0.16
  129 01/08 21Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     32     31    0.0
  132 01/09 00Z   31     30    0.01 -SN     32     31    0.0  0.01
  135 01/09 03Z   31     30    0.00 -SN     31     31    0.0
  138 01/09 06Z   31     30    0.02 -SN     31     31    0.0  0.02
  141 01/09 09Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     31    0.0  0.03
  144 01/09 12Z   25     22    0.00 -SN     31     25    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/07 18Z   17     12    0.00         17      2    0.1          0.1
  105 01/07 21Z   18     16    0.04 -SN     18     17    0.5  0.04    0.6
  108 01/08 00Z   20     19    0.09 -SN     20     16    1.4  0.13    2.0
  111 01/08 03Z   23     22    0.09 -SN     23     21    1.3  0.22    3.3
  114 01/08 06Z   25     24    0.05 -SN     25     21    0.8  0.27    4.1
  117 01/08 09Z   26     25    0.04 -SN     26     25    0.4  0.31    4.5
  120 01/08 12Z   27     26    0.09 -SN     27     25    1.2  0.40    5.7
  123 01/08 15Z   29     28    0.06 -SN     29     27    0.6  0.46    6.3
  126 01/08 18Z   31     30    0.02 -SN     31     27    0.0  0.48
  129 01/08 21Z   32     31    0.01 -SN     32     31    0.0  0.49
  132 01/09 00Z   32     31    0.01 -SN     32     31    0.0  0.50
  135 01/09 03Z   32     31    0.01 -SN     32     32    0.0  0.51
  138 01/09 06Z   31     31    0.03 -SN     32     31    0.3  0.54    0.3
  141 01/09 09Z   31     30    0.02 -SN     31     31    0.0  0.56
  144 01/09 12Z   23     22    0.00 -SN     31     23    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  105 01/07 21Z   18     13    0.01 -SN     18     14    0.1  0.01    0.1
  108 01/08 00Z   21     18    0.01 -SN     21     14    0.1  0.02    0.2
  111 01/08 03Z   25     23    0.01 -SN     25     21    0.1  0.03    0.3
  114 01/08 06Z   27     25    0.01 -SN     27     21    0.2  0.04    0.5
  117 01/08 09Z   28     26    0.01 -SN     28     27    0.3  0.05    0.8
  120 01/08 12Z   29     27    0.02 -SN     29     27    0.3  0.07    1.1
  123 01/08 15Z   31     29    0.03 -SN     31     29    0.3  0.10    1.4
  126 01/08 18Z   32     30    0.01 -SN     32     29    0.0  0.11
  129 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.12
  132 01/09 00Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.13
  135 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
  138 01/09 06Z   32     31    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.02
  141 01/09 09Z   32     30    0.03 -SN     32     32    0.2  0.05    0.2
  144 01/09 12Z   30     27    0.00 -SN     32     30    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/07 18Z   16     13    0.01         16      1    0.1  0.01    0.1
  105 01/07 21Z   19     15    0.02 -SN     19     16    0.4  0.03    0.5
  108 01/08 00Z   22     18    0.01 -SN     22     16    0.1  0.04    0.6
  111 01/08 03Z   26     22    0.02 -SN     26     22    0.2  0.06    0.8
  114 01/08 06Z   28     25    0.02 -SN     28     22    0.2  0.08    1.0
  117 01/08 09Z   29     27    0.04 -SN     29     27    0.3  0.12    1.3
  120 01/08 12Z   30     28    0.04 -SN     30     27    0.6  0.16    1.9
  123 01/08 15Z   32     29    0.05 -SN     32     30    0.4  0.21    2.3
  126 01/08 18Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.1  0.22    2.4
  129 01/08 21Z   34     31    0.00         34     33    0.0
  132 01/09 00Z   33     31    0.00         34     33    0.0
  135 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.00         33     33    0.0
  138 01/09 06Z   33     31    0.03 -SN     33     33    0.1  0.03    0.1
  141 01/09 09Z   33     30    0.03 -SN     33     33    0.2  0.06    0.3
  144 01/09 12Z   31     27    0.00 -SN     33     31    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  102 01/07 18Z    6      4    0.00          6    -21    0.1          0.1
  105 01/07 21Z   12     10    0.03 -SN     12      6    0.7  0.03    0.8
  108 01/08 00Z   13     11    0.02 -SN     13      6    0.4  0.05    1.2
  111 01/08 03Z   16     15    0.02 -SN     16     13    0.4  0.07    1.6
  114 01/08 06Z   19     18    0.02 -SN     19     13    0.1  0.09    1.7
  117 01/08 09Z   22     20    0.01 -SN     22     19    0.0  0.10
  120 01/08 12Z   25     24    0.02 -SN     25     19    0.4  0.12    0.4
  123 01/08 15Z   30     28    0.05 -SN     30     25    0.4  0.17    0.8
  126 01/08 18Z   32     30    0.07 -SN     32     25    0.5  0.24    1.3
  129 01/08 21Z   32     30    0.04 -SN     33     32    0.3  0.28    1.6
  132 01/09 00Z   32     30    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.29
  135 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.31
  138 01/09 06Z   33     31    0.04 -SN     33     32    0.2  0.35    0.2
  141 01/09 09Z   32     31    0.05 -SN     33     32    0.3  0.40    0.5
  144 01/09 12Z   32     31    0.04 -SN     33     32    0.3  0.44    0.8

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  105 01/07 21Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7     -1    0.5  0.02    0.5
  108 01/08 00Z    9      8    0.03 -SN      9     -1    0.5  0.05    1.0
  111 01/08 03Z    9      8    0.01 -SN     10      9    0.4  0.06    1.4
  114 01/08 06Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     13      9    0.1  0.07    1.5
  117 01/08 09Z   15     14    0.01 -SN     15     13    0.3  0.08    1.8
  120 01/08 12Z   17     16    0.02 -SN     17     13    0.5  0.10    2.3
  123 01/08 15Z   23     21    0.03 -SN     23     17    0.5  0.13    2.8
  126 01/08 18Z   27     26    0.04 -SN     27     17    0.5  0.17    3.3
  129 01/08 21Z   29     28    0.06 -SN     29     27    0.5  0.23    3.8
  132 01/09 00Z   32     30    0.02 -SN     32     27    0.0  0.25
  135 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.27
  138 01/09 06Z   33     31    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.1  0.29    0.1
  141 01/09 09Z   32     30    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.2  0.31    0.3
  144 01/09 12Z   31     30    0.02 -SN     33     31    0.2  0.33    0.5

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  3JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  105 01/07 21Z   -9    -10    0.00 -SN     -8    -10    0.1          0.1
  108 01/08 00Z   -7     -8    0.01 -SN     -7    -10    0.4  0.01    0.5
  111 01/08 03Z   -3     -4    0.02 -SN     -3     -7    0.5  0.03    1.0
  114 01/08 06Z    0      0    0.01 -SN      0     -7    0.3  0.04    1.3
  117 01/08 09Z    2      1    0.01 -SN      2      0    0.3  0.05    1.6
  120 01/08 12Z    4      3    0.01 -SN      4      0    0.3  0.06    1.9
  123 01/08 15Z   12     10    0.01 -SN     12      5    0.3  0.07    2.2
  126 01/08 18Z   18     16    0.02 -SN     18      5    0.4  0.09    2.6
  129 01/08 21Z   19     18    0.05 -SN     20     18    0.8  0.14    3.4
  132 01/09 00Z   20     20    0.06 -SN     20     18    1.1  0.20    4.5
  135 01/09 03Z   23     22    0.03 -SN     23     20    0.5  0.23    5.0
  138 01/09 06Z   26     25    0.02 -SN     26     20    0.4  0.25    5.4
  141 01/09 09Z   28     27    0.04 -SN     28     26    0.5  0.29    5.9
  144 01/09 12Z   29     28    0.05 -SN     29     26    0.6  0.34    6.5
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+Quote Post
NortheastWind
post Jan 3 2018, 04:28 PM
Post #25




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From: Crown Point West, Hamilton, Ontario
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The text shows Hamilton with 4-5" and Toronto with 11-12". It seems like a wide margin between the two. Does this include lake enhancement?

This post has been edited by NortheastWind: Jan 3 2018, 04:29 PM
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MrMusic
post Jan 3 2018, 05:47 PM
Post #26




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QUOTE(NortheastWind @ Jan 3 2018, 04:28 PM) *
The text shows Hamilton with 4-5" and Toronto with 11-12". It seems like a wide margin between the two. Does this include lake enhancement?


The text shows 1.4 inches of snow in Hamilton and 2.4 inches in TO.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 3 2018, 05:53 PM
Post #27




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QUOTE(NortheastWind @ Jan 3 2018, 04:28 PM) *
The text shows Hamilton with 4-5" and Toronto with 11-12". It seems like a wide margin between the two. Does this include lake enhancement?

I think you're mis-interpreting the output. The numbers under...

CODE
Snowfall
   in

...are the 3-hour amounts. The number under "SNOW" is the running total for the current contiguous string of non-zero 3-hour intervals. E.g. Toronto
HR 102; Snowfall in 0.1; SNOW = 0.1
HR 105; Snowfall in 0.4; SNOW = 0.1 + 0.4 = 0.5
HR 108; Snowfall in 0.1; SNOW = 0.1 +0.4 + 0.1 = 0.6
...
HR 126; Snowfall in 0.1; SNOW = 0.1 + 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.6 + 0.4 + 0.1 = 2.4

HR 129 has no snow, so the accumulator resets to zero. The next snowfall occurs during the period starting at HR 136. Hamilton has 2 "events" with 1.4" and 0.2" respectively; total 1.6". Toronto has 2 events, with 2.4" and 0.3"; total 2.7". Note that the numbers in the "snow" column are always rising during each "event".
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snowgeek93
post Jan 3 2018, 06:02 PM
Post #28




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Seems to be trending a bit better. With the front end snow and temps close to freezing, hopefully snow melt is only minor.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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jsut
post Jan 3 2018, 08:01 PM
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I really dont want to shovel snow thats been rained on. Hopefully it stays cold enough to be all snow.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 4 2018, 09:49 AM
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Models still seem a bit off with this system. I think we need to get the east coast storm out of the way before we can get a better idea on how this one will play out.
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NortheastWind
post Jan 4 2018, 10:44 AM
Post #31




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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 3 2018, 05:53 PM) *
I think you're mis-interpreting the output.


Yes, thank you for pointing that out.
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markj138
post Jan 4 2018, 04:38 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 4 2018, 09:49 AM) *
Models still seem a bit off with this system. I think we need to get the east coast storm out of the way before we can get a better idea on how this one will play out.


CMC looked better,but i agree get the east coast bomb out of the way & see how things look in a couple of days.

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png ( 168.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


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markj138
post Jan 4 2018, 05:02 PM
Post #33




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18Z GFS is getting there........

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png ( 188.4K ) Number of downloads: 3
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 5 2018, 08:52 AM
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Jan 5, 00Z run shows southern Ontario, plus Ottawa/Montreal, getting to 33 or 34 F during the event. Quebec City only gets to 30 F. The precipitation is all snow, according to the forecast.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   66 01/07 18Z   16     13    0.01 -SN     16      4    0.1  0.01    0.1
   69 01/07 21Z   19     17    0.06 -SN     19     16    1.0  0.07    1.1
   72 01/08 00Z   22     21    0.12 -SN     22     16    1.7  0.19    2.8
   75 01/08 03Z   25     23    0.08 -SN     25     22    1.0  0.27    3.8
   78 01/08 06Z   27     26    0.02 -SN     27     22    0.3  0.29    4.1
   81 01/08 09Z   30     28    0.03 -SN     30     28    0.3  0.32    4.4
   84 01/08 12Z   30     29    0.09 -SN     30     28    0.8  0.41    5.2
   87 01/08 15Z   32     31    0.03 -SN     32     30    0.2  0.44    5.4
   90 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.45
   93 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     33    0.0  0.46
   96 01/09 00Z   31     28    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.47
   99 01/09 03Z   28     25    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.0  0.48
  102 01/09 06Z   25     22    0.00 -SN     31     25    0.0
  105 01/09 09Z   23     21    0.00         25     23    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/07 21Z   18     16    0.02 -SN     18     16    0.3  0.02    0.3
   72 01/08 00Z   21     20    0.05 -SN     21     16    0.8  0.07    1.1
   75 01/08 03Z   24     22    0.04 -SN     24     21    0.6  0.11    1.7
   78 01/08 06Z   26     24    0.01 -SN     26     21    0.1  0.12    1.8
   81 01/08 09Z   29     27    0.01 -SN     29     26    0.1  0.13    1.9
   84 01/08 12Z   30     28    0.04 -SN     30     26    0.4  0.17    2.3
   87 01/08 15Z   32     30    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.18
   90 01/08 18Z   33     30    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.19
   93 01/08 21Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   96 01/09 00Z   30     27    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.01
   99 01/09 03Z   27     24    0.01 -SN     30     27    0.0  0.02
  102 01/09 06Z   24     21    0.00 -SN     30     24    0.0
  105 01/09 09Z   23     21    0.00 -SN     24     23    0.0
  108 01/09 12Z   19     15    0.00 -SN     24     19    0.0
  111 01/09 15Z   22     19    0.00         22     18    0.0
  114 01/09 18Z   24     19    0.01 -SN     24     18    0.0  0.01

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/07 21Z   20     15    0.01 -SN     20     16    0.1  0.01    0.1
   72 01/08 00Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     16    0.1  0.02    0.2
   75 01/08 03Z   27     25    0.03 -SN     27     24    0.4  0.05    0.6
   78 01/08 06Z   29     26    0.02 -SN     29     24    0.4  0.07    1.0
   81 01/08 09Z   31     29    0.02 -SN     31     29    0.1  0.09    1.1
   84 01/08 12Z   31     29    0.03 -SN     32     29    0.4  0.12    1.5
   87 01/08 15Z   33     31    0.03 -SN     33     31    0.2  0.15    1.7
   90 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.16
   93 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     33    0.0
   96 01/09 00Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   99 01/09 03Z   30     27    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.01
  102 01/09 06Z   26     23    0.00 -SN     32     26    0.0
  105 01/09 09Z   24     21    0.00         26     24    0.0
  108 01/09 12Z   22     19    0.00         26     22    0.0
  111 01/09 15Z   23     19    0.00         23     20    0.0
  114 01/09 18Z   26     21    0.00 -SN     26     20    0.0
  117 01/09 21Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.01
  120 01/10 00Z   18     16    0.00 -SN     26     18    0.0
  123 01/10 03Z   14     13    0.00         18     14    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   63 01/07 15Z   15     11    0.00 -SN     15      4    0.0
   66 01/07 18Z   18     13    0.00         18      4    0.1          0.1
   69 01/07 21Z   21     17    0.02 -SN     21     18    0.4  0.02    0.5
   72 01/08 00Z   24     21    0.05 -SN     24     18    0.7  0.07    1.2
   75 01/08 03Z   27     24    0.08 -SN     27     24    1.0  0.15    2.2
   78 01/08 06Z   29     26    0.03 -SN     29     24    0.3  0.18    2.5
   81 01/08 09Z   30     28    0.02 -SN     30     29    0.2  0.20    2.7
   84 01/08 12Z   32     30    0.06 -SN     32     29    0.4  0.26    3.1
   87 01/08 15Z   34     31    0.02 -SN     34     32    0.0  0.28
   90 01/08 18Z   34     32    0.00 -SN     34     32    0.0
   93 01/08 21Z   34     31    0.00 -SN     34     34    0.0
   96 01/09 00Z   32     29    0.00 -SN     34     32    0.0
   99 01/09 03Z   30     26    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.01
  102 01/09 06Z   27     22    0.00 -SN     32     26    0.0
  105 01/09 09Z   26     22    0.00         27     26    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/07 21Z   13     12    0.04 -SN     13     10    0.8  0.04    0.8
   72 01/08 00Z   15     13    0.06 -SN     15     10    1.2  0.10    2.0
   75 01/08 03Z   19     18    0.05 -SN     19     15    0.7  0.15    2.7
   78 01/08 06Z   22     21    0.04 -SN     23     15    0.5  0.19    3.2
   81 01/08 09Z   24     23    0.02 -SN     24     23    0.4  0.21    3.6
   84 01/08 12Z   26     25    0.01 -SN     26     23    0.1  0.22    3.7
   87 01/08 15Z   31     30    0.05 -SN     31     26    0.3  0.27    4.0
   90 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.07 -SN     33     26    0.4  0.34    4.4
   93 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.00         33     33    0.0
   96 01/09 00Z   33     30    0.00 -SN     33     33    0.0
   99 01/09 03Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01
  102 01/09 06Z   25     22    0.00 -SN     33     25    0.0
  105 01/09 09Z   25     23    0.00 -SN     25     25    0.0
  108 01/09 12Z   23     20    0.00 -SN     25     23    0.0
  111 01/09 15Z   23     19    0.00         23     20    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/07 21Z   10      8    0.01 -SN     10      2    0.1  0.01    0.1
   72 01/08 00Z   11     10    0.04 -SN     11      2    0.8  0.05    0.9
   75 01/08 03Z   13     12    0.04 -SN     13     11    0.8  0.09    1.7
   78 01/08 06Z   17     16    0.02 -SN     17     11    0.3  0.11    2.0
   81 01/08 09Z   20     18    0.03 -SN     20     17    0.5  0.14    2.5
   84 01/08 12Z   22     21    0.04 -SN     22     17    0.7  0.18    3.2
   87 01/08 15Z   28     27    0.03 -SN     28     23    0.3  0.21    3.5
   90 01/08 18Z   32     31    0.06 -SN     32     23    0.5  0.27    4.0
   93 01/08 21Z   33     32    0.05 -SN     33     32    0.3  0.32    4.3
   96 01/09 00Z   32     30    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.33
   99 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.34
  102 01/09 06Z   33     30    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.35
  105 01/09 09Z   27     25    0.00 -SN     33     27    0.0
  108 01/09 12Z   25     23    0.00 -SN     33     25    0.0
  111 01/09 15Z   26     23    0.00         26     25    0.0
  114 01/09 18Z   28     23    0.00 -SN     28     25    0.0
  117 01/09 21Z   21     16    0.00         28     21    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/07 21Z   -5     -7    0.01 -SN     -5     -7    0.4  0.01    0.4
   72 01/08 00Z   -3     -4    0.02 -SN     -3     -7    0.5  0.03    0.9
   75 01/08 03Z    0     -1    0.01 -SN      0     -3    0.4  0.04    1.3
   78 01/08 06Z    2      1    0.01 -SN      2     -3    0.3  0.05    1.6
   81 01/08 09Z    6      5    0.02 -SN      6      3    0.5  0.07    2.1
   84 01/08 12Z    8      7    0.01 -SN      8      3    0.2  0.08    2.3
   87 01/08 15Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     15      8    0.3  0.09    2.6
   90 01/08 18Z   21     19    0.03 -SN     21      8    0.5  0.12    3.1
   93 01/08 21Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     20    0.5  0.15    3.6
   96 01/09 00Z   23     22    0.03 -SN     23     20    0.5  0.18    4.1
   99 01/09 03Z   26     25    0.05 -SN     26     23    0.7  0.23    4.8
  102 01/09 06Z   29     28    0.04 -SN     29     23    0.3  0.27    5.1
  105 01/09 09Z   30     28    0.03 -SN     30     29    0.3  0.30    5.4
  108 01/09 12Z   25     24    0.01 -SN     30     25    0.1  0.31    5.5
  111 01/09 15Z   25     23    0.02 -SN     25     24    0.3  0.33    5.8
  114 01/09 18Z   28     24    0.02 -SN     28     24    0.3  0.35    6.1
  117 01/09 21Z   23     17    0.00         28     23    0.1          6.2
  120 01/10 00Z   13      8    0.00         28     13    0.0
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Lake effect
post Jan 5 2018, 09:47 AM
Post #35




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Quite a difference in terms of amounts between the CMC and GFS. Like to see the Euro today.

CMC

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_13.png ( 134.96K ) Number of downloads: 8


GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_11.png ( 149.81K ) Number of downloads: 2
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snowgeek93
post Jan 5 2018, 11:24 AM
Post #36




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Temps look to barely get above freezing with this event. It's the Jan 10th/11th system that looks concerning for snowpack atm.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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plowguy
post Jan 5 2018, 11:59 AM
Post #37




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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 5 2018, 09:47 AM) *
Quite a difference in terms of amounts between the CMC and GFS. Like to see the Euro today.

CMC

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_13.png ( 134.96K ) Number of downloads: 8


GFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_11.png ( 149.81K ) Number of downloads: 2

To my eye, both look to show around 5 cms for Brantford. Just a nice plow and salt will work again!
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 5 2018, 01:43 PM
Post #38




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Mehh amounts for K/W, Hamilton, and Toronto. But London, Ottawa, montreal, and Quebec get somethong noticable.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   17     16    0.07 -SN     17     15    1.1  0.07    1.1
   60 01/08 00Z   20     19    0.09 -SN     20     15    1.3  0.16    2.4
   63 01/08 03Z   23     22    0.09 -SN     23     21    1.3  0.25    3.7
   66 01/08 06Z   26     25    0.06 -SN     26     21    0.7  0.31    4.4
   69 01/08 09Z   28     26    0.04 -SN     28     26    0.6  0.35    5.0
   72 01/08 12Z   29     28    0.02 -SN     29     26    0.2  0.37    5.2
   75 01/08 15Z   31     30    0.01 -SN     31     29    0.0  0.38
   78 01/08 18Z   32     32    0.01 -SN     32     29    0.0  0.39
   81 01/08 21Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.40
   84 01/09 00Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   87 01/09 03Z   31     29    0.00         33     31    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   17     15    0.02 -SN     17     16    0.3  0.02    0.3
   60 01/08 00Z   20     17    0.03 -SN     20     16    0.3  0.05    0.6
   63 01/08 03Z   22     20    0.01 -SN     22     20    0.3  0.06    0.9
   66 01/08 06Z   25     23    0.01 -SN     25     20    0.0  0.07
   69 01/08 09Z   27     25    0.01 -SN     27     25    0.0  0.08
   72 01/08 12Z   28     27    0.01 -SN     28     25    0.0  0.09
   75 01/08 15Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.0  0.10
   78 01/08 18Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     28    0.0  0.11
   81 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     33    0.0  0.12
   84 01/09 00Z   32     29    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   87 01/09 03Z   31     28    0.00 -SN     32     31    0.0
   90 01/09 06Z   28     25    0.00 -SN     32     28    0.0
   93 01/09 09Z   27     24    0.00         28     27    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   19     14    0.01 -SN     19     16    0.1  0.01    0.1
   60 01/08 00Z   23     19    0.01 -SN     23     16    0.1  0.02    0.2
   63 01/08 03Z   26     23    0.01 -SN     26     23    0.1  0.03    0.3
   66 01/08 06Z   28     26    0.03 -SN     28     23    0.2  0.06    0.5
   69 01/08 09Z   29     27    0.03 -SN     29     28    0.2  0.09    0.7
   72 01/08 12Z   30     28    0.02 -SN     30     28    0.2  0.11    0.9
   75 01/08 15Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     32     30    0.0
   78 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.02 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.02
   81 01/08 21Z   33     32    0.00 -SN     33     33    0.0
   84 01/09 00Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     33    0.0
   87 01/09 03Z   33     30    0.00         33     33    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   20     16    0.02 -SN     20     18    0.4  0.02    0.4
   60 01/08 00Z   23     20    0.04 -SN     23     18    0.6  0.06    1.0
   63 01/08 03Z   26     22    0.06 -SN     26     23    1.0  0.12    2.0
   66 01/08 06Z   28     24    0.02 -SN     28     23    0.4  0.14    2.4
   69 01/08 09Z   29     26    0.00 -SN     29     28    0.0
   72 01/08 12Z   31     28    0.01 -SN     31     28    0.0  0.01
   75 01/08 15Z   33     29    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.1  0.02    0.1
   78 01/08 18Z   34     32    0.00 -SN     34     31    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   15     13    0.03 -SN     15     11    0.6  0.03    0.6
   60 01/08 00Z   15     13    0.05 -SN     15     11    1.0  0.08    1.6
   63 01/08 03Z   19     17    0.06 -SN     19     15    1.0  0.14    2.6
   66 01/08 06Z   22     21    0.04 -SN     22     15    0.7  0.18    3.3
   69 01/08 09Z   24     22    0.02 -SN     24     22    0.1  0.20    3.4
   72 01/08 12Z   26     25    0.05 -SN     26     22    0.6  0.25    4.0
   75 01/08 15Z   30     28    0.07 -SN     30     26    0.6  0.32    4.6
   78 01/08 18Z   33     31    0.03 -SN     33     26    0.3  0.35    4.9
   81 01/08 21Z   33     30    0.00         33     33    0.0
   84 01/09 00Z   33     30    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01
   87 01/09 03Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     33    0.0
   90 01/09 06Z   32     29    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01
   93 01/09 09Z   30     26    0.01 -SN     32     30    0.0  0.02
   96 01/09 12Z   22     18    0.00 -SN     32     22    0.0
   99 01/09 15Z   22     18    0.00         22     21    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   12     10    0.01 -SN     12      4    0.3  0.01    0.3
   60 01/08 00Z   12     11    0.03 -SN     12      4    0.6  0.04    0.9
   63 01/08 03Z   14     13    0.03 -SN     14     12    0.7  0.07    1.6
   66 01/08 06Z   17     15    0.04 -SN     17     12    0.7  0.11    2.3
   69 01/08 09Z   20     19    0.03 -SN     20     17    0.5  0.14    2.8
   72 01/08 12Z   24     23    0.03 -SN     24     17    0.5  0.17    3.3
   75 01/08 15Z   29     27    0.03 -SN     29     24    0.3  0.20    3.6
   78 01/08 18Z   33     31    0.05 -SN     33     24    0.3  0.25    3.9
   81 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.02 -SN     33     33    0.2  0.27    4.1
   84 01/09 00Z   32     30    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   87 01/09 03Z   33     30    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.01
   90 01/09 06Z   33     31    0.00 -SN     33     31    0.0
   93 01/09 09Z   33     29    0.01 -SN     33     33    0.0  0.01
   96 01/09 12Z   29     25    0.01 -SN     33     29    0.0  0.02
   99 01/09 15Z   26     21    0.00         28     25    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z  5JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/07 21Z   -4     -5    0.02 -SN     -4     -7    0.6  0.02    0.6
   60 01/08 00Z   -2     -3    0.02 -SN     -2     -7    0.4  0.04    1.0
   63 01/08 03Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      1     -2    0.4  0.06    1.4
   66 01/08 06Z    6      5    0.02 -SN      6     -2    0.4  0.08    1.8
   69 01/08 09Z    9      8    0.02 -SN      9      6    0.5  0.10    2.3
   72 01/08 12Z   11     10    0.02 -SN     11      6    0.5  0.12    2.8
   75 01/08 15Z   17     15    0.02 -SN     17     11    0.3  0.14    3.1
   78 01/08 18Z   23     21    0.03 -SN     23     11    0.4  0.17    3.5
   81 01/08 21Z   25     24    0.03 -SN     25     23    0.5  0.20    4.0
   84 01/09 00Z   27     26    0.05 -SN     27     23    0.7  0.25    4.7
   87 01/09 03Z   30     29    0.04 -SN     30     28    0.5  0.29    5.2
   90 01/09 06Z   30     28    0.03 -SN     30     28    0.4  0.32    5.6
   93 01/09 09Z   30     29    0.03 -SN     30     30    0.4  0.35    6.0
   96 01/09 12Z   28     25    0.02 -SN     30     28    0.2  0.37    6.2
   99 01/09 15Z   27     24    0.02 -SN     28     26    0.3  0.39    6.5
  102 01/09 18Z   29     22    0.01 -SN     29     27    0.0  0.40
  105 01/09 21Z   20     15    0.00         28     20    0.0
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 5 2018, 05:03 PM
Post #39




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18z GFS has around 10cm or so from this system for around the GTA and North. Looks like west end of Lake Ontario gets cut off from the main bands of moisture and doesnt get much from this system. You see this sometimes with systems of this type.

18z GFS snowfall

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 5 2018, 05:03 PM
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markj138
post Jan 5 2018, 05:43 PM
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From: Agincourt,Scarborough
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 5 2018, 05:03 PM) *
18z GFS has around 10cm or so from this system for around the GTA and North. Looks like west end of Lake Ontario gets cut off from the main bands of moisture and doesnt get much from this system. You see this sometimes with systems of this type.

18z GFS snowfall


Still surprised that Southern energy dosen`t head more North east,if you look at hr 54 you would think it will head that way but the high holds its ground & it heads South East instead......anyway still time for some changes for the better...........and maybe something to keep an eye on around the 14th.

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