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> Jan 8-9 Birthday Threat, Have your snow & eat it!
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 5 2018, 06:32 PM
Post #41




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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 5 2018, 05:43 PM) *
Still surprised that Southern energy dosen`t head more North east,if you look at hr 54 you would think it will head that way but the high holds its ground & it heads South East instead......anyway still time for some changes for the better...........and maybe something to keep an eye on around the 14th.


I know right? I thought the southern system would of interacted more with the clipper but it just doesn’t seem to want to. Like you say there’s still time.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 5 2018, 07:25 PM
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Looking much better now. The snow on Sunday night should help buffer up the snowpack before temps peak above zero Monday.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Lake effect
post Jan 6 2018, 07:35 AM
Post #43




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Looking like a solid 10cms for much of the GTA at least, with the CMC coming in lower today. Quite a decent hit up here, with some LES possible afterwards.

CMC 06z total snowfall:

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_12.png ( 130.44K ) Number of downloads: 7


GFS:

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_12.png ( 154.08K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 6 2018, 07:35 AM
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Lake effect
post Jan 6 2018, 08:41 AM
Post #44




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The NAM 12k has the hole over the 400 down to the GTA. Seen this happen many times in winter storms with the radar filling up just to the East of us here in Barrie. Hope not this time as I feel this might be peak snowpack for this winter.

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_29__1_.png ( 151.14K ) Number of downloads: 7
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 6 2018, 11:14 AM
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12z RGEM also has that area of moderate totals from Barrie down to the east end of the GTA. Some models are further east with that area of accumulation.

12z RGEM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  F8E221E1_F17F_4E1D_8577_D91C01F60CB4.png ( 107.04K ) Number of downloads: 17
 
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snowgeek93
post Jan 6 2018, 02:41 PM
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Bring it on! One last chance to buffer up the snowpack before it vanishes.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Jan 6 2018, 03:30 PM
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Here's the NAM 3K:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_06_at_3.30.13_PM.png ( 1.96MB ) Number of downloads: 5


Usual donut hole over the Nottawasaga Valley with barely 3cm in Alliston, maybe 5cm in Barrie. Heaviest snows to the lee of Lake Huron where 15-20cm is likely.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 6 2018, 03:31 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 04:54 PM
Post #48




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18Z 12k nam

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_23.png ( 150.37K ) Number of downloads: 3
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 06:58 PM
Post #49




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18Z RGEM

Attached File  rgem_asnow_neus_54.png ( 154.48K ) Number of downloads: 3
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travis3000
post Jan 6 2018, 07:38 PM
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18z NAM 3K

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_06_at_7.25.20_PM.jpg ( 534.04K ) Number of downloads: 4


Rgem showing 6 inches up this way , NAM is showing 2. Will be interesting to see who gets it right. I think given the wind direction (WSW) downsloping could really eat away at our totals especially in the Toronto to Wasaga corridor.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 6 2018, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 6 2018, 07:38 PM) *
18z NAM 3K

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_01_06_at_7.25.20_PM.jpg ( 534.04K ) Number of downloads: 4


Rgem showing 6 inches up this way , NAM is showing 2. Will be interesting to see who gets it right. I think given the wind direction (WSW) downsloping could really eat away at our totals especially in the Toronto to Wasaga corridor.


Yeah, I'm tempering my expectations.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 6 2018, 08:25 PM
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That 18z RGEM has a area of solid accumulation right imby in Whitby. I think east end of GTA has a better chance at more than 5cm. NAM continues to want to push that heavier band of snow further east though which is a possibility. Have to see what the HRRR has to show when it’s in range as it normally handles these types of systems well.
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puttin
post Jan 6 2018, 10:55 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 6 2018, 08:25 PM) *
That 18z RGEM has a area of solid accumulation right imby in Whitby. I think east end of GTA has a better chance at more than 5cm. NAM continues to want to push that heavier band of snow further east though which is a possibility. Have to see what the HRRR has to show when it’s in range as it normally handles these types of systems well.


You know it's funny how we measure snow... My partner has a son in Raleigh North Carolina... They had a cm or two, blue sky and green grass past the trees. They called for a state of emergency, people wanted to go home... So he sent him a picture of Barrie after your snow, imagine that, and it didn't stick to the roads their roads even...
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markj138
post Jan 6 2018, 11:06 PM
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0Z CMC & GFS

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_9.png ( 131.43K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_10.png ( 153.2K ) Number of downloads: 3
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 7 2018, 07:20 AM
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Jan 7th, 00Z GFS text output. We get some snow. Enjoy it while you can.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z   17     14    0.02 -SN     17     14    0.4  0.02    0.4
   24 01/08 00Z   19     17    0.05 -SN     19     14    0.7  0.07    1.1
   27 01/08 03Z   23     19    0.01 -SN     23     20    0.0  0.08
   30 01/08 06Z   25     24    0.08 -SN     25     20    1.1  0.16    1.1
   33 01/08 09Z   26     25    0.14 -SN     26     25    1.8  0.30    2.9
   36 01/08 12Z   28     27    0.18 SN      28     25    2.1  0.48    5.0
   39 01/08 15Z   32     31    0.10 -SN     32     28    0.7  0.58    5.7
   42 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     28    0.0  0.59
   45 01/08 21Z   33     30    0.01 -SN     33     33    0.0  0.60
   48 01/09 00Z   30     28    0.01 -SN     33     30    0.0  0.61
   51 01/09 03Z   28     25    0.01 -SN     30     28    0.0  0.62
   54 01/09 06Z   26     23    0.00 -SN     30     26    0.0
   57 01/09 09Z   23     21    0.00         26     23    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z   15     12    0.00 -SN     15     13    0.0
   24 01/08 00Z   18     16    0.02 -SN     18     13    0.2  0.02    0.2
   27 01/08 03Z   21     18    0.01 -SN     21     18    0.3  0.03    0.5
   30 01/08 06Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     18    0.3  0.04    0.8
   33 01/08 09Z   25     24    0.02 -SN     25     24    0.3  0.06    1.1
   36 01/08 12Z   27     25    0.07 -SN     27     24    0.9  0.13    2.0
   39 01/08 15Z   31     29    0.01 -SN     31     27    0.2  0.14    2.2
   42 01/08 18Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     27    0.0  0.15
   45 01/08 21Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.16
   48 01/09 00Z   29     26    0.00 -SN     33     29    0.0
   51 01/09 03Z   27     24    0.01 -SN     29     27    0.0  0.01
   54 01/09 06Z   23     20    0.00 -SN     29     23    0.0
   57 01/09 09Z   22     20    0.00         23     22    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   24 01/08 00Z   19     16    0.01 -SN     19     13    0.2  0.01    0.2
   27 01/08 03Z   23     19    0.01 -SN     23     19    0.0  0.02
   30 01/08 06Z   25     22    0.01 -SN     25     19    0.1  0.03    0.1
   33 01/08 09Z   26     24    0.03 -SN     26     25    0.5  0.06    0.6
   36 01/08 12Z   28     26    0.06 -SN     28     25    0.6  0.12    1.2
   39 01/08 15Z   32     30    0.01 -SN     32     28    0.0  0.13
   42 01/08 18Z   33     32    0.01 -SN     33     28    0.0  0.14
   45 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.01 -SN     33     33    0.0  0.15
   48 01/09 00Z   32     28    0.00 -SN     33     32    0.0
   51 01/09 03Z   29     26    0.01 -SN     32     29    0.0  0.01
   54 01/09 06Z   27     24    0.00 -SN     32     27    0.0
   57 01/09 09Z   22     20    0.00         27     22    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z   17     13    0.01         17     15    0.1  0.01    0.1
   24 01/08 00Z   20     17    0.02 -SN     20     15    0.1  0.03    0.2
   27 01/08 03Z   24     20    0.05 -SN     24     20    0.5  0.08    0.7
   30 01/08 06Z   26     23    0.03 -SN     26     20    0.3  0.11    1.0
   33 01/08 09Z   28     26    0.03 -SN     28     26    0.4  0.14    1.4
   36 01/08 12Z   29     27    0.06 -SN     29     26    0.5  0.20    1.9
   39 01/08 15Z   32     29    0.02 -SN     32     29    0.1  0.22    2.0
   42 01/08 18Z   34     32    0.01 -SN     34     29    0.0  0.23
   45 01/08 21Z   34     30    0.01 -SN     34     34    0.0  0.24
   48 01/09 00Z   31     27    0.00 -SN     34     31    0.0
   51 01/09 03Z   30     26    0.00         31     30    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z   12     10    0.00 -SN     12      8    0.0
   24 01/08 00Z   13     11    0.05 -SN     13      8    1.0  0.05    1.0
   27 01/08 03Z   16     15    0.04 -SN     16     13    0.9  0.09    1.9
   30 01/08 06Z   20     19    0.04 -SN     20     13    0.6  0.13    2.5
   33 01/08 09Z   23     22    0.03 -SN     23     20    0.4  0.16    2.9
   36 01/08 12Z   26     24    0.06 -SN     26     20    0.6  0.22    3.5
   39 01/08 15Z   29     28    0.08 -SN     29     26    0.9  0.30    4.4
   42 01/08 18Z   32     29    0.08 -SN     32     26    0.5  0.38    4.9
   45 01/08 21Z   33     30    0.02 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.40
   48 01/09 00Z   33     30    0.00 -SN     33     31    0.0
   51 01/09 03Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     33     32    0.0  0.01
   54 01/09 06Z   28     24    0.00 -SN     33     28    0.0
   57 01/09 09Z   24     20    0.00         28     24    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z    9      7    0.00 -SN      9      2    0.0
   24 01/08 00Z    9      7    0.02 -SN     10      2    0.5  0.02    0.5
   27 01/08 03Z   11     10    0.03 -SN     11      9    0.6  0.05    1.1
   30 01/08 06Z   14     13    0.04 -SN     14      9    0.7  0.09    1.8
   33 01/08 09Z   18     17    0.02 -SN     18     14    0.3  0.11    2.1
   36 01/08 12Z   21     19    0.02 -SN     21     14    0.3  0.13    2.4
   39 01/08 15Z   23     22    0.03 -SN     23     21    0.4  0.16    2.8
   42 01/08 18Z   31     30    0.08 -SN     31     21    0.6  0.24    3.4
   45 01/08 21Z   33     31    0.06 -SN     33     31    0.3  0.30    3.7
   48 01/09 00Z   31     28    0.01 -SN     33     31    0.0  0.31
   51 01/09 03Z   34     31    0.00         34     31    0.0
   54 01/09 06Z   32     28    0.01 -SN     34     31    0.0  0.01
   57 01/09 09Z   27     24    0.00         31     27    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  7JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   21 01/07 21Z   -4     -6    0.01 -SN     -3     -5    0.1  0.01    0.1
   24 01/08 00Z   -1     -3    0.02 -SN     -1     -5    0.6  0.03    0.7
   27 01/08 03Z    1      0    0.02 -SN      1     -1    0.4  0.05    1.1
   30 01/08 06Z    4      3    0.02 -SN      4     -1    0.3  0.07    1.4
   33 01/08 09Z    6      5    0.02 -SN      6      4    0.4  0.09    1.8
   36 01/08 12Z    8      7    0.01 -SN      8      4    0.3  0.10    2.1
   39 01/08 15Z   14     12    0.01 -SN     14      8    0.2  0.11    2.3
   42 01/08 18Z   19     17    0.05 -SN     19      8    0.7  0.16    3.0
   45 01/08 21Z   20     19    0.09 -SN     20     19    1.6  0.25    4.6
   48 01/09 00Z   22     21    0.04 -SN     22     19    0.6  0.29    5.2
   51 01/09 03Z   27     26    0.04 -SN     27     22    0.4  0.33    5.6
   54 01/09 06Z   29     28    0.03 -SN     29     22    0.4  0.36    6.0
   57 01/09 09Z   28     26    0.05 -SN     30     28    0.6  0.41    6.6
   60 01/09 12Z   24     21    0.02 -SN     30     24    0.3  0.43    6.9
   63 01/09 15Z   22     16    0.00         24     22    0.0
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 07:28 AM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





CMC and GFS still in agreement, but NAM sticking to its guns on pushing the juiciest snow band 30kms East. Should have it resolved in the 12Z run:

00z CMC
Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_8.png ( 130.52K ) Number of downloads: 2


06zGFS

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_8.png ( 151.35K ) Number of downloads: 2


06z NAM

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_15.png ( 148.88K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 7 2018, 07:29 AM
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Lake effect
post Jan 7 2018, 09:12 AM
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12Z NAM sticking to its guns. From experience, I suspect they are right with this one.

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snowgeek93
post Jan 7 2018, 10:45 AM
Post #58




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Not the snowiest look for the GTA on those runs. We're gonna lose it soon anyway so no big deal.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Jan 7 2018, 12:23 PM
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These type of systems with the WSW wind usually perform poorly in areas just to the east of the Niagara Escarpment due to downsloping. I've watched these storms many times over the past 15 years. Areas to the east of bodies of water on the other hand perform better.

I'd trust the NAM on this one.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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markj138
post Jan 7 2018, 02:40 PM
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maybe we can grab 5cm out of this in the GTA,we can start using HRRR soon
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