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> Jan 21-23 Great Lakes Cutter / Rainstorm, Snowpack Eater
travis3000
post Jan 18 2018, 05:56 PM
Post #21




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From: Alliston,Ontario
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12z CMC still a solid rainstorm for all of Southern ON , all the way up into Sudbury. Same with 12z and 18z GFS.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 18 2018, 05:58 PM
Post #22




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From: Alliston,Ontario
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NAM is much colder this weekend, highs around -3C Friday for Southern ON, 1C on Saturday, and -2C again on Sunday. GFS is middle ground (-1C, 4C, 3C) , CMC is warmer (0C, 5C, 5C)

Storm is still projected for Monday

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 18 2018, 05:59 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 19 2018, 09:14 AM
Post #23




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ECM has the track of this system much further south than other op models. With the track it is currently projecting places through E ON would be in a mainly if not all frozen precip sector. Its quite the different look than the GFS has. Well have to see how it progresses and if the euro is on to something.


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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 19 2018, 09:17 AM
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Could also be several hours of freezing rain before a change over to rain for S ON if the more south track is to be believed.
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EOsnowmom
post Jan 19 2018, 09:30 AM
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The forecast given on CFRA radio this morning is saying 30cm snow for Ottawa Monday overnight into Tuesday. No mention of freezing rain. smile.gif
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ottawasnowstorm
post Jan 19 2018, 09:35 AM
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Yup. The Weather Network is currently saying the same thing for Ottawa. Up to 30 cm Monday night into Tuesday. Let's see what happens in future model runs and forecasts. Another forecast weather agency has a total of over 30 cm's, perhaps as much as about 40 cm.
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EOsnowmom
post Jan 19 2018, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE(ottawasnowstorm @ Jan 19 2018, 09:35 AM) *
Yup. The Weather Network is currently saying the same thing for Ottawa. Up to 30 cm Monday night into Tuesday. Let's see what happens in future model runs and forecasts. Another forecast weather agency has a total of over 30 cm's, perhaps as much as about 40 cm.


!! Made my day!! I better pick up some more milk and eggs. LOL
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Stl
post Jan 19 2018, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Jan 19 2018, 09:39 AM) *
!! Made my day!! I better pick up some more milk and eggs. LOL


Euro and Gem also show more than 30cm for here , GFS is still reluctant.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 19 2018, 10:21 AM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 19 2018, 10:10 AM) *
Euro and Gem also show more than 30cm for here , GFS is still reluctant.

In a time when ensembles are showing much warmer than avg condition, if you could get a 30cm snowfall Id take it and run.


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plowguy
post Jan 19 2018, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 18 2018, 05:58 PM) *
NAM is much colder this weekend, highs around -3C Friday for Southern ON, 1C on Saturday, and -2C again on Sunday. GFS is middle ground (-1C, 4C, 3C) , CMC is warmer (0C, 5C, 5C)

Storm is still projected for Monday

+1 in Brantford and the sun is out cool.gif Lets all take a few days off!
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Stl
post Jan 19 2018, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 19 2018, 10:21 AM) *
In a time when ensembles are showing much warmer than avg condition, if you could get a 30cm snowfall Id take it and run.



Ya for sure , GEM 12z though is North so that 30 cm is out of the question. Euro 12z will be the one to see.

There is a lot of time left so we will see.
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travis3000
post Jan 19 2018, 06:42 PM
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Nam predicted -3C here today, GFS predicted -1C, CMC predicted +1C .

High today was= +1C

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 19 2018, 06:42 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Jan 19 2018, 11:04 PM
Post #33




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Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 19 2018, 06:42 PM) *
Nam predicted -3C here today, GFS predicted -1C, CMC predicted +1C .

High today was= +1C


Looks to me like the NAM is full of *bleep* at the moment. We hit 2 here today. Currently 4, and short range models all take me to 4-5 tomorrow afternoon. NAM doesn't have us getting above zero at all today or tomorrow.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowball
post Jan 20 2018, 08:10 AM
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Significant ice threat for Monday commute
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robv1989
post Jan 20 2018, 08:20 AM
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QUOTE(snowball @ Jan 20 2018, 08:10 AM) *
Significant ice threat for Monday commute


I'm not liking the looks of that at all, any idea how much freezing rain we might be getting? I'd rather just have a rainstorm and have it clean the cars at this point then to see people sliding off of the roads :/
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Lake effect
post Jan 20 2018, 08:22 AM
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The NAM is the only one showing significant ice. I think they are too cold, and this will just be plain old snow eating rain. Any chance of LES also seems to be slipping away as the winds after are more northerly. Could mean we have a long stretch of no snow cover here, which is pretty much unheard of in these parts at this time of the year.
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snowball
post Jan 20 2018, 08:25 AM
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QUOTE(robv1989 @ Jan 20 2018, 08:20 AM) *
I'm not liking the looks of that at all, any idea how much freezing rain we might be getting? I'd rather just have a rainstorm and have it clean the cars at this point then to see people sliding off of the roads :/


Always hard to predict totals and likely NAM is quite inflated. But I've found NAM is better at recognizing an ice threat as opposed to GFS, and EC has already said they will likely be posting warnings so they see favourable conditions for it as well.

Latest run calling for close to an inch in some areas. But I doubt it. Really tough to tell until closer to and even then there's so many factors.


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MrMusic
post Jan 20 2018, 08:27 AM
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FWIW I'm already warmer than the NAM and GFS said I would hit today. TWN has me hitting 7. Those 2 models were around 1. It's currently 2. Lots of sun on the way as well.
No worries about this cutter eating snow down here. Our 6-8cm depth from earlier this week is going to be gone today. Already lots of grass poking through.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 20 2018, 08:29 AM
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Special weather statement issued for all you north of me for Monday for freezing rain potential.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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robv1989
post Jan 20 2018, 08:35 AM
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Thank you for the reply, I'm in stoney creek so it looks like my area might be spared, but I work in burlington which looks to be in the area of ice potential. Will wait and see the next 24 hours as the details get ironed out. It's plus 2 here also mr music, feels a lot warmer though since the polar vortex left
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