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> Feb 6th-8th Eastern Canada Winter Storm
SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 08:25 PM
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We know the drill. Letís track.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 2 2018, 08:28 PM
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GFS
Attached File  E8766B34_F2DB_4E79_A9B8_7C248C321C23.png ( 186.87K ) Number of downloads: 6


CMC
Attached File  C7F63DA7_A046_4CC7_97A1_758F9FD6FA87.png ( 172.17K ) Number of downloads: 4


ECM
Attached File  2A381F58_0E9D_4D86_A344_A6F8AB276724.png ( 143.97K ) Number of downloads: 2
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travis3000
post Feb 2 2018, 08:39 PM
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Let this baby come north! I have a good feeling about this one.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 3 2018, 09:28 AM
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Models are mostly a very close miss for S ON atm. Euro grazes ON. A NW shift will be needed and thereís still lots of time for that to happen.
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akula
post Feb 3 2018, 10:17 AM
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The weather network says 20CM+ is likely for us with this system. we will see if the NW shift occurs!
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travis3000
post Feb 3 2018, 12:57 PM
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Euro, GFS and CMC all a total miss for Ontario. However it would not take much to put us in the game. TWN has been advertising this storm for a few days now promising it to be the biggest of the winter for Southern ON. They must be expecting a NW push. Runs tomorrow into Monday will be crucial to see if we can get this NW trend happening.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 3 2018, 01:34 PM
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12z ECM

Attached File  64F8BE2A_33C0_4F02_A1CB_6A10EBB793B2.png ( 107.22K ) Number of downloads: 2
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travis3000
post Feb 3 2018, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 3 2018, 01:34 PM) *
12z ECM

Attached File  64F8BE2A_33C0_4F02_A1CB_6A10EBB793B2.png ( 107.22K ) Number of downloads: 2


12z Euro has crept north of the 00z. Good sign. Lets hope the rest jump in.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 3 2018, 07:25 PM
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Would be nice to get some more snow around my B-Day on Tuesday tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 115.1cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 69
Days with Snow Cover: 53

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm)
February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2018, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 3 2018, 07:25 PM) *
Would be nice to get some more snow around my B-Day on Tuesday tongue.gif


Go wash your car, and you may have a birthday treat.
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Jeremy404
post Feb 3 2018, 09:49 PM
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Looks to be suppressed again dry.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 4 2018, 08:17 AM
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Models have shifted NW with this system. Most models do have the precip reaching ON again.
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dsichewski
post Feb 4 2018, 09:54 AM
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You put your left foot in then you take your left foot out... you put your left foot in.....gah make up your mind Mother Nature! Lol!
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winter48
post Feb 4 2018, 10:09 AM
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laugh.gif
QUOTE(dsichewski @ Feb 4 2018, 09:54 AM) *
You put your left foot in then you take your left foot out... you put your left foot in.....gah make up your mind Mother Nature! Lol!

laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif No kidding though, right?!
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travis3000
post Feb 4 2018, 10:36 AM
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06z GFS has indeed come north! Spills 3-5cm of snow into Southern ON and 5-10cm into parts of E Ontario (Kingston, Cornwall). CMC agrees on that same track. Its nice to see both have come north. Still not a big storm at all, but considering earlier runs had us receiving 0cm its nice to see.

12z NAM also delivers a decent hit for Southern/Eastern ON.

EDIT: 12z GFS stays on course with 06z run, delivering 3-6cm of snow across Southern ON and 5-10cm in parts of extreme E ON. Heaviest snows 15-25cm stay in NY state across into Maine.

12z CMC agrees on 2-5cm for S ON, keeps the heaviest snow across Southern NY State into Southern Vermont and Connecticut.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 4 2018, 11:23 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 50.5cm (28cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 4 2018, 02:35 PM
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Itís good to see the NAM on board with the low tracking NW. The NAM has been the best and most consistent model this winter IMO.

12z euro looks a touch SE of the 00z.
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markj138
post Feb 4 2018, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 4 2018, 02:35 PM) *
ItÔŅĹs good to see the NAM on board with the low tracking NW. The NAM has been the best and most consistent model this winter IMO.

12z euro looks a touch SE of the 00z.


I was just checking out the Ohio thread & the 12z Euro EPS Mean looks pretty good,now the question is does it come further NW or was that as far as it comes & now it heads back SE.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 4 2018, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Feb 4 2018, 02:47 PM) *
I was just checking out the Ohio thread & the 12z Euro EPS Mean looks pretty good,now the question is does it come further NW or was that as far as it comes & now it heads back SE.

Time will tell I suppose. We havenít seen those NW late in the game shifts on models like we have seen in some years so Iím not sure which way to lean with this system.
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Jeremy404
post Feb 4 2018, 10:25 PM
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Soooo

We throwing in the white flag for this?

Seems a 20cm+ or more storm won't be happening anytime soon.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 4 2018, 10:32 PM
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QUOTE(Jeremy404 @ Feb 4 2018, 10:25 PM) *
Soooo

We throwing in the white flag for this?

Seems a 20cm+ or more storm won't be happening anytime soon.

Why would you throw in the towel already? To get to a 20cm snowfall we will need to get shifts in the models which is still possible but no guarantee yet, but a moderate snowfall is seeming plausible atm for the lower lakes.

Hereís the 00z NAM
Attached File  42B01765_A6BD_449A_81D2_0C976675C76C.png ( 152.39K ) Number of downloads: 3
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