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> Feb 6th-8th Eastern Canada Winter Storm
markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 03:57 PM
Post #41




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IWM of the 18z nam

Attached File  capture1.png ( 53.9K ) Number of downloads: 19
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 04:15 PM
Post #42




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3 km nam using 10:1 ratios

Attached File  nam3km_asnow_neus_54.png ( 180.15K ) Number of downloads: 8
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travis3000
post Feb 5 2018, 04:19 PM
Post #43




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Im still sticking with 5-10cm for Southern ON right now.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 04:21 PM
Post #44




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Id say overall a good sign seeing the NAM come in with higher totals. This year the NAM has performed well with many of the sytems weve seen.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 04:23 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 5 2018, 04:19 PM) *
Im still sticking with 5-10cm for Southern ON right now.

While its good seeing the NAM with higher totals I agree with you on 5-10cm atm. Lake enhancement not withstanding.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 5 2018, 04:24 PM
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 04:50 PM
Post #46




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Slight improvement on the 18 z gfs 10:1 ratios

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_11.png ( 157.44K ) Number of downloads: 6

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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 05:14 PM
Post #47




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I am sitting around bored out of my skull while my GF & her BFF are in Toronto for a girls day out
so i got a little more invested in this storm today laugh.gif

here is the RGEM with 10:1 ratios

Attached File  rgem_asnow_neus_54.png ( 137.48K ) Number of downloads: 8
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2018, 07:11 PM
Post #48




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In my view, this is going to be a nothing burger except for St Catherines. I am more hopeful for the storm at the weekend.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 5 2018, 07:47 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 5 2018, 04:19 PM) *
Im still sticking with 5-10cm for Southern ON right now.

Sounds good!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Lake effect
post Feb 5 2018, 09:32 PM
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OK, maybe not a nothingburger, it's a Namburger:

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_17.png ( 140.33K ) Number of downloads: 4
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 09:45 PM
Post #51




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00z NAM still showing around 5 for GTA on east and over 6 in St Catherines area with kuchera. Im thinking those totals might be a bit inflated. Im leaning closer to 6-10 cm for the GTA and 8-14cm for St Catherines area with similar 8-14cm amounts for eastern Lake Ontario. Still time for minor shifts and the chance of heavier banding from some lake enhancement.
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MrMusic
post Feb 5 2018, 09:54 PM
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Winter Storm Watch for western NY....15-30cm


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 10:53 PM
Post #53




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0Z RGEM looks the same as its 12Z run


Attached File  rgem_asnow_neus_48.png ( 136.68K ) Number of downloads: 3

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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 11:24 PM
Post #54




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0z CMC looks better than its 12z run

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_8.png ( 130.3K ) Number of downloads: 3
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travis3000
post Feb 6 2018, 12:26 AM
Post #55




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Like I said Im still sticking with 5-10cm for Southern ON. Recent runs only confirm my initial thoughts.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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players1
post Feb 6 2018, 07:18 AM
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we got a bit of a snow squall down towards fort Erie last last night. best guess 10-15cms of really powdery snow. (good ol cold SW winds!) Buffalo stations are calling for 10-15 cms for tomorrow. EC say 10. At least its sticking for a bit.

at work in St. Catherine's there is maybe 2-3 cms on the ground from last nights flurries.
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Lake effect
post Feb 6 2018, 07:39 AM
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NAM and RGEM gone a bit SE this morning. 5cm for the GTA, maybe 7-10 for the Eastern most parts of Ontario but hello PEI and NB!

Attached File  rgem_asnow_secan_54.png ( 107.05K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 6 2018, 08:42 AM
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BIG Snowstorms
post Feb 6 2018, 10:01 AM
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Everything shifts SE...maybe its time I move SE! tongue.gif
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plowguy
post Feb 6 2018, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(BIG Snowstorms @ Feb 6 2018, 10:01 AM) *
Everything shifts SE...maybe its time I move SE! tongue.gif

No, because then everything will move NW! laugh.gif
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Lake effect
post Feb 6 2018, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Feb 6 2018, 10:42 AM) *
No, because then everything will move NW! laugh.gif


So true. NAM 12z gone a bit further SE. Could see this one coming a mile off which is why I never really bought into it. Hamilton may get 8cms, and Kingston could get 10-15, but everyone else outside of the maritimes 5cm tops.

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_13.png ( 141.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 6 2018, 11:00 AM
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