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> December 19-20 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Thread Closed; Please See "OBS"
NYCSuburbs
post Dec 17 2009, 06:42 PM
Post #7001




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Latest Upton discussion says it's too early to make snow accumulation forecasts...

QUOTE
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CUT OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A VARIETY OF
TRACKS WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z UKMET OFFER A
MORE OMINOUS SOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM HATTERAS TO
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION IS
INCREASING BASED ON THE 12Z GEFS AND SOMEWHAT BY THE 09Z SREF. ALL
IN ALL THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY LASTING UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO VENTURE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.
SHOULD THE HATTERAS TO THE BENCHMARK SCENARIO PLAY OUT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS ITS STILL TOO
EARLY AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY DISCUSSION OF HEADLINES.


AS OF RIGHT NOW...THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST ALL SNOW.-- End Changed Discussion --

Source

...Yet they already made a map.

Attached Image

Source
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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 17 2009, 06:43 PM
Post #7002




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Will be making a map soon.

Basically expecting a major event at MECS level to occur.


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niño? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 17 2009, 06:43 PM
Post #7003




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ugh i cant focus onanything other then wanting the 0Z runsto come out already, this isthe one thing i hate abouthese storms is i cant get anything done while anticipating them lol


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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PSUweatherman
post Dec 17 2009, 06:43 PM
Post #7004




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QUOTE(Steve9649 @ Dec 17 2009, 06:41 PM) *
Anyone see the the new 18Z NAM model? Looks like that storm will come more up the coast ? Looks like more of a close call for Upstate NY unsure.gif

18z NAM is out of control. I hope it holds it for 0z, but it probably won't.
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I-95blizzard
post Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM
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First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.


--------------------
Lead forecaster for Foot's Forecast SE PA Team
Follow my forecasts for eastern PA on Twitter and Facebook
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anysnowindc10
post Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM
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many DCA mets are being careful of totals exept bob ryan who says 6-12''
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Steve9649
post Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM
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QUOTE(PSUweatherman @ Dec 17 2009, 06:43 PM) *
18z NAM is out of control. I hope it holds it for 0z, but it probably won't.


I hope so too... That last run showed a huge storm right up the coast.. We'll see...
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sw03181
post Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM
Post #7008




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QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.

whatcha thinking for hartford?


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40“ ±/- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0“
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM
Post #7009




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QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.


richmond wont get 8-16, i dont think they will be ableto stay mainly snow.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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davidt08
post Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM
Post #7010




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QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.


nice to see something positive on here in the last thirty minutes..

keep up the hope. i personally am not discarding the euro and nam wink.gif
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Superstorm93
post Dec 17 2009, 06:47 PM
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If the 00z suite shows an OTS solution once again...

Im pretty sure there would be mass weenie suicide. ohmy.gif


--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major
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tick629
post Dec 17 2009, 06:47 PM
Post #7012




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Just a reminder that In my backyard questions should not be posted tonight as their is still much uncertainty on the track of the system. Warnings will be issued for those who do not comply to this rule.


--------------------
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Removed_Member_CTWeatherStorm_*
post Dec 17 2009, 06:47 PM
Post #7013







Guests








QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 07:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.



What would you say for HFD and Litchfield County CT since those areas pretty much fall in between NYC and BOS( I think Lol)

This post has been edited by CTWeatherStorm: Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM
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davidt08
post Dec 17 2009, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(anysnowindc10 @ Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM) *
many DCA mets are being careful of totals exept bob ryan who says 6-12''


he did say 12+ tho, and he said that if it tracks closer we will get more. he was definitely being conservative on those totals.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 17 2009, 06:36 PM) *
Thank you for also backing up my thoughts. As I said, it's only 2 runs. Out of 20 or more model runs in one day, that has only a 10% or less chance of happening. Not very good probabilities.

I agree with all u said but the NAM has been different then alot of models this yr, and its been rght.. Not to mention last yr the euro was the king and locks down on a solution usally within 72 hrs.. And we are in that period now.. So those are 2 pretty good models telling u that, its def not out of the queston..
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I-95blizzard
post Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 17 2009, 06:46 PM) *
whatcha thinking for hartford?

6-10"


--------------------
Lead forecaster for Foot's Forecast SE PA Team
Follow my forecasts for eastern PA on Twitter and Facebook
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM
Post #7017







Guests








QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.
im thinking a few flurries
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longislandwx
post Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 17 2009, 06:43 PM) *
ugh i cant focus onanything other then wanting the 0Z runsto come out already, this isthe one thing i hate abouthese storms is i cant get anything done while anticipating them lol

LOL I feel the same way! I'm currently have the laptop in my hand looking at all these posts and watching the Islander vs Rangers pregame! Im torn between which one to choose !

First snow accumulation Map coming after the 00z Nam. I would do it after the 00z GFS but i have to wake up at 4 o clock in the morning for work. sad.gif


--------------------
LONG ISLAND !

Snow Events:

11/8: 0.50"
12/14: 1"
12/27: 16"
1/7: 2.5"
1/9: 0.5"
1/12: 15.8
1/18: 0.6"
1/21: 4"
1/24: 0.5"
1/25: 16.5"


Total snowfall: 57.9"

Ronkonkoma's total accumulated snow fall for 2009-2010 : 63.5 Inches.
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SnowMan11
post Dec 17 2009, 06:49 PM
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QUOTE(I-95blizzard @ Dec 17 2009, 06:45 PM) *
First call:

RIC 8-16" with some mixing issues
DCA 12-20"
BWI 12-20"
PHL 10-15"
NYC 8-14"
BOS 5-10"

Basically a full-blown MECS for the I-95 corridor. GFS ensembles and Euro are probably right given the trends, NAM has the right idea but it's way overdone with QPF.


Nice call. Good luck. BTW, what did the Euro ensembles say?


--------------------
Anthony
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Steve9649
post Dec 17 2009, 06:50 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 17 2009, 06:48 PM) *
I agree with all u said but the NAM has been different then alot of models this yr, and its been rght.. Not to mention last yr the euro was the king and locks down on a solution usally within 72 hrs.. And we are in that period now.. So those are 2 pretty good models telling u that, its def not out of the queston..


I agree... cool.gif
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