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> Lake Effect Snow Potential Dec 29th-31st, Primarily NW winds
travis3000
post Dec 28 2016, 07:49 PM
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I am creating this thread to highlight the potential for heavy lake effect squalls, expected to develop Thursday evening and continue into early Saturday. Right now I am looking at a primarily NW event.

Here's my map


Attached File  LES_Dec_29_30th.png ( 359.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Right now it looks like the squalls will begin tomorrow early evening and strengthen overnight tomorrow. The bands will move around through Friday as winds will be oscillating but overall a primary NW flow, at times WNW off Huron and NNW off GB. However NW will be the primary direction.

This will take the heaviest Huron activity north of London in my opinion. I like the Kincardine down to Goderich corridor and in-land from there. Listowel down to Stratford will be dealing with squalls oscillating in and out of the area with areas closer to the lake getting hit hard (Wingham down through Mitchell and Exeter) where I feel 30-40cm is possible. London is a close call, the northeastern part of the city stands a better chance but from what I'm seeing the highest accumulations occur well north of the city. The actual city should not see anything significant.


Off Georgian Bay the highest accumulations will be felt from the Wasaga Beach to Barrie corridor and to the SW of that in areas like Angus, CFB Borden, New Lowell, Essa Township, Baxter, Cookstown/Innisfil, etc. Up to 40cm is possible in this region. Alliston will again be too SW for the heaviest accumulations, but stands a possibility of receiving 6-15cm if the squall can stall over this area. I think you'll see it cream areas just to the north and east, at times affecting the town. The east side of the town will likely fare better.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 29 2016, 11:06 AM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Dec 28 2016, 11:16 PM
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Heading to Barrie for new years, the fresh snow will make it nice
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Lake effect
post Dec 29 2016, 03:49 AM
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Annoyed I'm missing this one. Could be the best of the season so far. In fact I will probably have missed the snowiest little period of all. 10cms yesterday, 5-10 today. 20-40 Thursday and Friday, 10-15 Saturday. Get back Sunday for the rain storm on Monday though...Great. My wife is also not amused.
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:49 AM
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06z 3km NAM @ hour 24 - valid Friday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png ( 207.78K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 30 - valid Friday 7 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_30.png ( 200.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 36 - Friday 1 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_36.png ( 187.03K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 42 - Friday 7 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_42.png ( 184.67K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 48 - Saturday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_48.png ( 180.01K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 04:51 AM
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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son

QUOTE
Ontario - south

Snow squall watch

Lake effect flurries and local snow squalls are expected to develop late this afternoon and shift through the region tonight. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm will be possible under the most intense bands.

The squalls are forecast to persist through Friday in some areas.

Snow squalls cause weather conditions to vary considerably; changes from clear skies to heavy snow within just a few kilometres are common. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Snow squall watches are issued when conditions are favourable for the formation of bands of snow that could produce intense accumulating snow or near zero visibilities.
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 09:39 AM
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12z 3km NAM @ hour 18 - valid Friday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_18.png ( 211.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 24 - Friday 7 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png ( 202.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 30 - Friday 1 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_30.png ( 186.66K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 36 - Friday 7 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_36.png ( 184.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 42 - Saturday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_42.png ( 178.95K ) Number of downloads: 1
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blizzardOf96
post Dec 29 2016, 11:30 AM
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Looks like the setup could get interesting for London if the REG is correct. The NAM focuses the activity further North.

The HRRR is usually the deciding factor.


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blizzardOf96
post Dec 29 2016, 11:30 AM
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NAM v. REG at 15z Friday.

Attached File  nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_27.png ( 190.9K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png ( 202.2K ) Number of downloads: 2


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Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Check out my Wx Blog: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 11:33 AM
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...rs-eve/70000417

Attached File  accuweather.brightspotcdn.com.jpg ( 37.41K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Locally dangerous New Year's Eve travel conditions will riddle the Great Lakes region in the wake of the northern New England blizzard to end the week.

Lake-effect snow and flurries will diminish Friday night ahead of a weak storm system expected to sweep through during New Year's Eve.
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 03:52 PM
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18z 3km NAM @ hour 12 - valid Friday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_12.png ( 204K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 18 - Friday 7 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_18.png ( 200.21K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 24 - Friday 1 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_24.png ( 185.2K ) Number of downloads: 2


Hour 30 - Friday 7 PM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_30.png ( 185.24K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 36 - Saturday 1 AM EST:

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_36.png ( 179.14K ) Number of downloads: 1
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bigmt
post Dec 29 2016, 06:07 PM
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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son

QUOTE
Ontario - south

Snow squall warning

Snow squalls are expected. Under the snow squall bands, visibilities will be significantly reduced due to the heavy snow combined with blowing snow, and snow will quickly accumulate.

Flurries off Lake Huron are expected to become organized early this evening. Snow accumulations of 10 to 15 cm are possible under the heaviest snow bands By Friday morning. The squalls will likely persist on Friday.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.
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travis3000
post Dec 29 2016, 07:14 PM
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Squalls already forming, a large one affecting the Mount Forest/Durham to Shelburne area right now.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 29 2016, 07:15 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Ottawa blizzard
post Dec 29 2016, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 29 2016, 07:14 PM) *
Squalls already forming, a large one affecting the Mount Forest/Durham to Shelburne area right now.

Do you think any of the squalls will make their way into Scarborough?
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MrMusic
post Dec 30 2016, 07:58 AM
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Not something you see everyday. Or ever.... a snow squall watch was just issued here due to the Huron band.
Looks to be just south of Hamilton at the moment. Nothing happening here but it's close.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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winter48
post Dec 30 2016, 08:05 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 30 2016, 07:58 AM) *
Not something you see everyday. Or ever.... a snow squall watch was just issued here due to the Huron band.
Looks to be just south of Hamilton at the moment. Nothing happening here but it's close.

I just saw that! Very rare and cool! I'm hoping it also reaches here in Burlington but can't really tell ATM as the King City radar on EC doesn't show that far out. Looks to hit Hamilton very soon thoughts. Enjoy! Might need to take a little drive to if it looks to be a good there!
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MrMusic
post Dec 30 2016, 08:13 AM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Dec 30 2016, 08:05 AM) *
I just saw that! Very rare and cool! I'm hoping it also reaches here in Burlington but can't really tell ATM as the King City radar on EC doesn't show that far out. Looks to hit Hamilton very soon thoughts. Enjoy! Might need to take a little drive to if it looks to be a good there!


Just started downtown here. Nice big flakes. Coming down moderately. Would be great to get a few cm to cover up the grass.

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Dec 30 2016, 08:14 AM


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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winter48
post Dec 30 2016, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 30 2016, 08:13 AM) *
Just started downtown here. Nice big flakes. Coming down moderately. Would be great to get a few cm to cover up the grass.

LOVE those big flakes! Let's hope it quickly accumulates like you said. Get out there and enjoy it if you can! We had a quick little burst of snow last night that I was able to get out for a walk. It was so nice!

This post has been edited by winter48: Dec 30 2016, 08:20 AM
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MrMusic
post Dec 30 2016, 08:32 AM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Dec 30 2016, 08:19 AM) *
LOVE those big flakes! Let's hope it quickly accumulates like you said. Get out there and enjoy it if you can! We had a quick little burst of snow last night that I was able to get out for a walk. It was so nice!


Ended pretty quick. Just flurries now.
I think the watch might be for the western rural areas of Hamilton. A friend out there said you can barely see in front of you. In the past, EC usually specifies when a watch is for the western rural areas of Hamilton and not the actual city. Wonder if they expect it to slide east into the city?


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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winter48
post Dec 30 2016, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 30 2016, 08:32 AM) *
Ended pretty quick. Just flurries now.
I think the watch might be for the western rural areas of Hamilton. A friend out there said you can barely see in front of you. In the past, EC usually specifies when a watch is for the western rural areas of Hamilton and not the actual city. Wonder if they expect it to slide east into the city?

Looking at the radar on TWN I think it will come your way and maybe even here in Burlington. Squalls can be quite fickle in these regions (as you know) so only time will tell.
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MrMusic
post Dec 30 2016, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Dec 30 2016, 09:06 AM) *
Looking at the radar on TWN I think it will come your way and maybe even here in Burlington. Squalls can be quite fickle in these regions (as you know) so only time will tell.


They're getting pasted out in flamborough.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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