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> December 19-20 Southeast Winter Storm, Thread closed...See OBS thread
ShawnEastTN
post Dec 15 2009, 05:37 PM
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QUOTE(Winterskyline @ Dec 15 2009, 05:14 PM) *
The Euro has a whopper of a storm lined up....unfortunately all other models have lost it


Hopefully the Euro will be the winning solution. Its been the most consistent of the models on this storm, not that you can't be consistent and wrong though. GFS doesn't look as good


--------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter 2013/2014

Total Accumulating Snow: 13"

Total Accumulating Ice: 0"

Total Days with frozen precipitation observed: 7

Coldest High Temp: 26

Coldest Low Temp: 2.4
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athensga
post Dec 15 2009, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE(ShawnEastTN @ Dec 15 2009, 05:18 PM) *
Poor Henry... lol Anyone seen his blog, he's not the most popular guy at the moment.

A couple busted forecasts tends to do that to you wink.gif


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Live by the models and die by the models,
its a crazy place to be with a big storm

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cgm333
post Dec 15 2009, 06:10 PM
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The anticipation is the worst. Bring on the SNOW! Things are looking to line up well for us in the valley. Wonder if we can pull a 6er out of this pattern?
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ShawnEastTN
post Dec 15 2009, 06:44 PM
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Well we do have some in our corner. Here is a blog entry from Brett Anderson about the potential weekend storm.

"In terms of storms, computer models are still at odds with the track and intensity of the potential snowstorm late this coming weekend/Monday. I do believe at this time that it will impact the Maritimes, Newfoundland and New England, based on the developing pattern. Farther west, it is too early to say, but I can easily see some correction to the west over the next couple days with the modeling.

There are a lot of potential players on the field for this one, its just a matter of getting them to get together all at once, and at this early in the game it is almost impossible to say if that will happen. I do like the European solution over the GFS.
"

Hope he is right, and the GFS will continue to undergo correcting to the west with the low. It already corrected from a lakes storm to the atlantic, so maybe further correcting is going to occur and bring the storm further west.


--------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter 2013/2014

Total Accumulating Snow: 13"

Total Accumulating Ice: 0"

Total Days with frozen precipitation observed: 7

Coldest High Temp: 26

Coldest Low Temp: 2.4
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winterwarlock
post Dec 15 2009, 07:09 PM
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Greg Fishel on WRAL channel 5 in Raleigh, NC is a true snow lover, but he seems to be way too cautious about callingl for snow here lately? In his 6PM forecast he only called for highs in the 40s and rain this weekend even though the Model are indicating that it might be much colder and snowing for most of this storm? I guess getting burned by the models will do that too you? Also you don't want to mention the "S" word around the south unless you are 100 percent sure it will happen!


--------------------
SNOW LOVER IN SOUTH EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL VA, ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF EMPORIA, VA
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Removed_Member_Garrett_*
post Dec 15 2009, 07:11 PM
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QUOTE(ShawnEastTN @ Dec 15 2009, 06:44 PM) *
Well we do have some in our corner. Here is a blog entry from Brett Anderson about the potential weekend storm.

"In terms of storms, computer models are still at odds with the track and intensity of the potential snowstorm late this coming weekend/Monday. I do believe at this time that it will impact the Maritimes, Newfoundland and New England, based on the developing pattern. Farther west, it is too early to say, but I can easily see some correction to the west over the next couple days with the modeling.

There are a lot of potential players on the field for this one, its just a matter of getting them to get together all at once, and at this early in the game it is almost impossible to say if that will happen. I do like the European solution over the GFS.
"

Hope he is right, and the GFS will continue to undergo correcting to the west with the low. It already corrected from a lakes storm to the atlantic, so maybe further correcting is going to occur and bring the storm further west.


Do you want to ruin my chances? sad.gif

I thought TN has seen snow already. We've seen snow but nothing that amounted to anything yet. If this storm trends a very TINY smidge west that's okay but far enough west to give places like TN and KY snow and I'm screwed. sad.gif
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ShawnEastTN
post Dec 15 2009, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(Garrett @ Dec 15 2009, 07:11 PM) *
Do you want to ruin my chances? sad.gif

I thought TN has seen snow already. We've seen snow but nothing that amounted to anything yet. If this storm trends a very TINY smidge west that's okay but far enough west to give places like TN and KY snow and I'm screwed. sad.gif


Yeah that is the downside to these things, some get it, some dont or mother nature says forget all of you, I'm doing something entirely different, and no one will get any. While I do want all of us in the southeast to get plenty of snow, because I think we all equally want it badly after the last few years of next to nil, I have to admit I am selfish... lol

yes I did see an inch and a half; while it was nice, it hardly satisfied my snow appetite, especially since it was gone by the late afternoon.


--------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter 2013/2014

Total Accumulating Snow: 13"

Total Accumulating Ice: 0"

Total Days with frozen precipitation observed: 7

Coldest High Temp: 26

Coldest Low Temp: 2.4
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1234snow
post Dec 15 2009, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(ShawnEastTN @ Dec 15 2009, 06:44 PM) *
Well we do have some in our corner. Here is a blog entry from Brett Anderson about the potential weekend storm.

"In terms of storms, computer models are still at odds with the track and intensity of the potential snowstorm late this coming weekend/Monday. I do believe at this time that it will impact the Maritimes, Newfoundland and New England, based on the developing pattern. Farther west, it is too early to say, but I can easily see some correction to the west over the next couple days with the modeling.

There are a lot of potential players on the field for this one, its just a matter of getting them to get together all at once, and at this early in the game it is almost impossible to say if that will happen. I do like the European solution over the GFS.
"

Hope he is right, and the GFS will continue to undergo correcting to the west with the low. It already corrected from a lakes storm to the atlantic, so maybe further correcting is going to occur and bring the storm further west.


The clipper has always been there and will still be there, it is just that now the GFS has brought the southern low further to the west and phased it better with the clipper. Earlier solution had the southern branch just drifting harmlessly off to sea.


--------------------
"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

John F. Kennedy

Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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feelnopain
post Dec 15 2009, 07:35 PM
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se ky and east tenn will see several inches at least with up coming system and then we get into end of next week BIG DADDY.
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ShawnEastTN
post Dec 15 2009, 07:45 PM
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QUOTE(1234snow @ Dec 15 2009, 07:33 PM) *
The clipper has always been there and will still be there, it is just that now the GFS has brought the southern low further to the west and phased it better with the clipper. Earlier solution had the southern branch just drifting harmlessly off to sea.


Right. Without phasing, with the southern stream the clipper would just breeze through with maybe a flurry for the mountains.


--------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Winter 2013/2014

Total Accumulating Snow: 13"

Total Accumulating Ice: 0"

Total Days with frozen precipitation observed: 7

Coldest High Temp: 26

Coldest Low Temp: 2.4
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carolinasnowstor...
post Dec 15 2009, 07:50 PM
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The NWS doesnt seem to show anything for winston-salem, not even rain... I wonder why. The local news even mentioned a decent 30-50% chance of snow friday into saturday.
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1234snow
post Dec 15 2009, 08:00 PM
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QUOTE(ShawnEastTN @ Dec 15 2009, 07:45 PM) *
Right. Without phasing, with the southern stream the clipper would just breeze through with maybe a flurry for the mountains.


Ya, it looks like the mountains will get snow regardless of where the low goes as a favorable upslope pattern looks to be on the table.


--------------------
"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

John F. Kennedy

Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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1234snow
post Dec 15 2009, 08:06 PM
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Morristown seems pretty optimistic about snow this weekend which is a rarity in itself.

CODE
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF THE

WEEK...SHOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCING MILLER A

CYCLONGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MERGING OF THE SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SPREADS PRECIP

NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE 12Z GFS IS NOW IN BETTER

AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF REGARDING THIS PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS

INCREASED.
WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ON

FRIDAY MORNING...AND BRING CHANCE POPS IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

SATURDAY. WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BEING ACROSS BEING JUST

OFF THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WE WILL BE IN THE

FAVORED AREA FOR FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED SNOWFALL. GFS FORECAST

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN TRANSITION

TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE

STRENGTHENING LOW. AT THIS POINT...WILL USE WORDING OF RAIN OR SNOW

IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND

RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL BE NEEDED TO MORE CLOSELY TARGET THE

LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.



THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER

TROUGH AXIS OVER THE TN VALLEY. A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD

MIDLEVEL TEMPS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SATRUDAY

NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE FASTER TREND OF THE GFS AND ITS AGREEMENT

WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA...WILL REMOVE

POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD AS

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL GO DRY

FOR NOW.





--------------------
"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

John F. Kennedy

Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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Killerchaos
post Dec 15 2009, 08:12 PM
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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9ikW9SY7yeE/Syfo...0-h/GFS+SAT.png

Snow totals looking good so far... biggrin.gif
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carolinasnowstor...
post Dec 15 2009, 08:17 PM
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QUOTE(Killerchaos @ Dec 15 2009, 08:12 PM) *



That would be amazing. smile.gif wow.
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123
post Dec 15 2009, 08:41 PM
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Would love to see that much snow, especially in December!


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Andy911
post Dec 15 2009, 08:46 PM
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how does snow chances for atlanta georgia look this weekend???
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Solution Man
post Dec 15 2009, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(Killerchaos @ Dec 15 2009, 08:12 PM) *

Good for you, that would shut this area down for days
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athensga
post Dec 15 2009, 08:54 PM
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QUOTE(winterwarlock @ Dec 15 2009, 07:09 PM) *
Greg Fishel on WRAL channel 5 in Raleigh, NC is a true snow lover, but he seems to be way too cautious about callingl for snow here lately? In his 6PM forecast he only called for highs in the 40s and rain this weekend even though the Model are indicating that it might be much colder and snowing for most of this storm? I guess getting burned by the models will do that too you? Also you don't want to mention the "S" word around the south unless you are 100 percent sure it will happen!

Yep that's pretty much a cardinal rule, don't mention the word "snow" until like you said you're 100% about the forecast.


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Live by the models and die by the models,
its a crazy place to be with a big storm

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1234snow
post Dec 15 2009, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(Andy911 @ Dec 15 2009, 08:46 PM) *
how does snow chances for atlanta georgia look this weekend???



It could be better for Georgia, I'm thinking better chances for snow will be in North Carolina right now. Looks to be mostly rain with some wraparound snow showers currently.


--------------------
"The path we have chosen for the present is full of hazards, as all paths are. The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

John F. Kennedy

Total Snowfall for 2010-11 Winter: 13.25 inches

Total Ice Accumulation for 2010-11: .25 inches

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