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> ARCHIVE: CAT 2 HURRICANE ALEX, Saved for later searches! (2010 Atlantic Storms)
hurricanehunter
post Jun 25 2010, 01:51 PM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Jun 25 2010, 02:46 PM) *
This really nice 1KM Visible image, clearly shows the spin to the overall system. The more symmetrical structure and the WNW moving of the COC.




You can see the thunderstorm just exploding here. deep convection especially to the southern side. Those cloud tops must be 40-50 thousand feet in the air, and at least -50 degrees C.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jun 25 2010, 01:54 PM
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There is now some speculation to whether or not this is a Tropical Depression. I may have pulled the trigger to fast.....stay tuned...
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hckyplayer8
post Jun 25 2010, 01:54 PM
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Invest 93



Coastal low that comes up the EC








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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 01:56 PM
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Now the guidance will have a better handle on where the system will go as it now seems to have a defined COC the models can work with to gives a better idea of the track it should take.

00Z runs tonight should be good ones.


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jun 25 2010, 02:03 PM
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12 Z ECM is way south..

Attached Image
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:07 PM
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More info from the flight:

Extrapolated Surface Pressure: 1005.3 mb (~ 29.69 inHg)

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): From 136 at 26 knots (From the SE at ~ 29.9 mph)

Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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kab2791
post Jun 25 2010, 02:09 PM
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31.9 knots (~ 36.7 mph)
Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:10 PM
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Observation Number: 26


SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Estimated Reduction Factor: 31.9 knots (~ 36.7 mph)

Tropical depression winds at the surface it seems. It's even approaching Tropical storm surface wind speeds.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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123
post Jun 25 2010, 02:16 PM
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it definately looks to be getting better organized on the satelite imagery, a better circulation is now happening..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...isir2_floater_1

This post has been edited by 123: Jun 25 2010, 02:17 PM


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Removed_Member_sub900_*
post Jun 25 2010, 02:28 PM
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ohmy.gif



unsure.gif blink.gif
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kab2791
post Jun 25 2010, 02:29 PM
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Latest 30 sec Surface Wind Estimate:

32.9 knots (~ 37.8 mph)
18.117N 81.800W

This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 25 2010, 02:29 PM


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:31 PM
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Observation Number: 28

Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Estimated Reduction Factor: 32.9 knots (~ 37.8 mph)

Flight level and surface wind speeds continue to be above tropical depression threshold, and surface winds approaching tropical storm threshold.


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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:33 PM
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If things continue like this, we very well may get Alex later on tonight, like on the 2AM outlook update.


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kab2791
post Jun 25 2010, 02:35 PM
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We got the winds...we just got to make sure the LLC is defined enough to make NHC's standards of a TD.

This post has been edited by kab2791: Jun 25 2010, 02:36 PM


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jun 25 2010, 02:35 PM) *
We got the winds...we just got to make sure the LLC is defined enough to make NHC's standards of a TD.


And we got the pressure as well.

~1005mb.


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hurricanehunter
post Jun 25 2010, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Jun 25 2010, 03:33 PM) *
If things continue like this, we very well may get Alex later on tonight, like on the 2AM outlook update.



Well, the SMFR winds at the 10 sec. avg. is already at 40mph (alright, 39.1, kill me for 9/10th of a mph). Do you know is the COC is closed off yet. If so, TD #1 is here.
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Phased Vort
post Jun 25 2010, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 25 2010, 02:37 PM) *
Well, the SMFR winds at the 10 sec. avg. is already at 40mph (alright, 39.1, kill me for 9/10th of a mph). Do you know is the COC is closed off yet. If so, TD #1 is here.



laugh.gif


As far as if the COC is closed, I'm not sure. I have not found official info about it.


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IcyThor
post Jun 25 2010, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jun 25 2010, 01:31 PM) *
Yes i just said that...that was the confirmation that was needed...(though now there is some speculation and nothing official yet)

Realize i have never said this would not develop but i have pointed out present happenings and occurrences & why it was not developing and that it was not going to develop in the time frame which the models were showing etc (most not all) ..Not at one time did i ever come out and say that this will not become a depression etc..just what needed to happen such as the best divergence catching up to the system (which it had)

Now like i said the next question become does this develop enough to get named or is the close proximity to land going to effect this?
Along those lines of thought is that if this goes over the YUCUTAN or any other land mass now that we know it has a inner core and a defined center..could this be more harmful because of that land interaction? In other words the stronger a system becomes the more damage and harm land can do to that so the ideal conditions would have been for it to remain weaker.
So yes we do have a tropical depression and yes this morning it has taken on some good organization but there is still aways to go for Alex and some obstacles to over come..

I applaud you for calling them as you see them. You offered ideas that challenged our preconceived notions. You made us think. That what makes a discussion board great.




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hurricanehunter
post Jun 25 2010, 02:47 PM
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Just to let everyone know, Intellicast.com already has 93L as a depression.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane...icAnalysis.aspx

This post has been edited by hurricanehunter: Jun 25 2010, 02:49 PM
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dverchow
post Jun 25 2010, 02:58 PM
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I don't see where this thing isn't closed off? It looks like a tropical storm already. Surfact winds I've seen are at 32-39. The pressue is at 1005 milibars. It won't take more than a couple hours before this storm produces winds abvoe 50. They should just go ahead and name it in their next update.
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