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> 2017-2018 La Niņa watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
MaineJay
post Oct 19 2017, 05:05 AM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Oct 18 2017, 03:03 PM) *
This is looking much more substantial than last winter.



If you edit your initial post in this thread, the thread title can be updated to "La Niņa watch". smile.gif


I think El Niņo is safely off the table. laugh.gif


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scwxman
post Oct 19 2017, 07:20 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 19 2017, 06:05 AM) *
If you edit your initial post in this thread, the thread title can be updated to "La Niņa watch". smile.gif
I think El Niņo is safely off the table. laugh.gif


Done. I never knew you could edit a thread title! Usually that is off limits to prevent some bad things smile.gif

Unfortunately El Nino is done. Sad because the SE will have a very boring winter again.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 19 2017, 02:59 PM
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Cool water has really pushed west







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 19 2017, 03:27 PM
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This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 19 2017, 03:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Oct 19 2017, 03:31 PM
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Any of you thinking moderate Nina possible?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 19 2017, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 19 2017, 04:31 PM) *
Any of you thinking moderate Nina possible?

High-end weak, low-end moderate is reasonable IMO.

Very strong trade winds are ongoing.. somewhere around 10-12 m/s stronger than average. GFS is hinting at weakened trades though, possibly reversed.



What CFS shows suggests this a part of the MJO.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 19 2017, 08:18 PM
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Euro update. Appears it's favoring a high-end weak or low-end moderate.

Regions from east to west




Compare 3.4 forecast to last month. Unfortunately not easy to compare side-by-side because the scale is different. Definitely less spread, mean might be a bit weaker.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 20 2017, 12:21 AM
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-3C contour showing up in region 3 now. Nina is looking pretty healthy.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 20 2017, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 19 2017, 09:18 PM) *
Euro update. Appears it's favoring a high-end weak or low-end moderate.

Regions from east to west


Compare 3.4 forecast to last month. Unfortunately not easy to compare side-by-side because the scale is different. Definitely less spread, mean might be a bit weaker.


Yup, comparison is difficult, but I think you are spot on with identifying less spread that is still centered near the -1C threshold suggesting a high-end weak/low-end moderate.

The SSTA maps you posted look like a well established Nina and it will be interesting to see how the MJO influences that. My guess is the cold SSTAs in place will limit the influence of the MJO.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 20 2017, 06:01 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 16 2017, 11:27 PM) *



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Oct 20 2017, 06:01 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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