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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
RobB
post Today, 08:45 AM
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1/21 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomalies (click to loop):

Attached File(s)
Attached File  850mbtempanomaly.gif ( 1.84MB ) Number of downloads: 11
Attached File  2meteranomaly.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 14
 
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telejunkie
post Today, 09:32 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 21 2018, 08:45 AM) *
1/21 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomalies (click to loop):

Certainly looks like EPS is picking up on the cold airmass building in western & central Canada by first week of Feb (EPO flip). We'll see if it has staying power or if the Pacific jet knocks it back down. Think this winter still has a lotta fun times ahead....

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Today, 09:33 AM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7
12/22 - 5
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 50

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
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kpk33x
post Today, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jan 21 2018, 12:58 AM) *
In Pittsburgh, the low temperature that day was -22F, and the high temperature was -3F, for a mean daily temperature of -13F. All three were record low temperatures (the high temperature tied February 9, 1899 and January 17, 1982 for the record). January 19, 1994 is the undisputed coldest day in Pittsburgh weather history.

I'll never forget sweeping the 2" or 3" of loose, granular snow off the sidewalk in my front yard that afternoon, and feeling the mucus in my nose freeze every time I inhaled. Come to think of it, January 1994 started off with a blockbuster snowstorm (14" from the 3rd-5th), and was very cold and snowy in Pittsburgh from beginning to end. Fun times. smile.gif


I was in college in Emmitsburg, MD at the time. We had an authentic zero day, low of -28F and a high of -1F (this may have been on the 20th, I'm not 100% sure). Classes were cancelled because no one could start cars that morning, including profs who had to get to campus.

I lived in northern NH for 3 years and never had a zero day, then have already had one here 3 degrees latitude to the south (1/1/18 - spread of -4/-15).


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: 4.25" (Dec. 27th)

# subzero lows to date: 1
Lowest temperature: -3F
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gulfofslides
post Today, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 20 2018, 04:22 PM) *
Nothing like extrapolating the MJO to make people believe it will go into those phases!

Two different Euro MJO forecast showing it diving towards the COD by the 19th of February while barely in Phase 8.





Paging gulfofslides... paging gulfofslides

Checking in, not quite sure of your inference about the MJO in phase 8 blink.gif
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RobB
post Today, 01:02 PM
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1/21 12Z NAEFS:
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Attached File  naefs.png ( 102.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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jdrenken
post Today, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Jan 21 2018, 11:51 AM) *
Checking in, not quite sure of your inference about the MJO in phase 8 blink.gif


It's pretty obvious what I said about the forecasted MJO and phase 8. Maybe if you stop drinking the JB kool-aide you would understand.



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RobB
post Today, 03:10 PM
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1/21 12Z Euro EPS daily 850 and 2 meter temp anomalies (Click to loop)

Attached File(s)
Attached File  850tempanomalies.gif ( 1.85MB ) Number of downloads: 7
Attached File  2metertempanomalies.gif ( 1.96MB ) Number of downloads: 7
 
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 04:43 PM
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This verified well. Tornado watch issued for southern Plains.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 15 2018, 11:34 PM) *
CIPS analogs have a pretty decent signal for severe weather in 6-8 days.

Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 1 severe report


Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 5 severe reports


It's this system



Now CIPS is picking up on another severe threat, albeit may be quite small.



Huge trough, surfce low will probably be far away from the severe threat.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 04:44 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 05:23 PM
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Look at that STJ... visible on upper-air maps and satellite.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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