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> Jan. 7-9 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 10:52 AM
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Cold air arrives on the 7th, storm comes on 8th. Question is, where does it go??

This post has been edited by StormTracker: Dec 28 2016, 06:09 PM
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Ryan Duff
post Dec 28 2016, 12:12 PM
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Not on the GFS...


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phillyfan
post Dec 28 2016, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 28 2016, 12:12 PM) *
Not on the GFS...

Rain on the 4th with quite the cold shot behind it. Maybe something looming around the 9th...

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--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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jdrenken
post Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:52 AM) *
Cold air arrives on the 5th, storm comes on 6th. Question is, where does it go??


A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!


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stilko4
post Dec 28 2016, 12:37 PM
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Maybe the coast gets a YUGE snowstorm in jan? ... so far winter has favored the interior


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 12:41 PM
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I need a storm I am thirsty for snow
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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM) *
A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!

None are so bold as those who know no different. Our thread creator is "relatively" new to this - so let's not get to quashing too heavily. As you always say JD - if the threat does not pan out, the thread will wither and be relegated to the bottom of the page.

That being said, this time period holds "some" potential - just not a solid signal ATTM.

Looking at LR GFS, we see a stronger signal for ~9th - but that is for another time, perhaps.



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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM
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On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS
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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM) *
On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS

GFS-p also has this system (shown above) - but your dates are in conflict with the images.

I'll let you and JD hash it out as to what to do with this.
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 12:46 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 12:45 PM) *
GFS-p also has this system (shown above) - but your dates are in conflict with the images.

I'll let you and JD hash it out as to what to do with this.

What is the CORRECT date?
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jdrenken
post Dec 28 2016, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 11:46 AM) *
What is the CORRECT date?


It's not a matter of date...it's a matter of model choice to support your thoughts. As UT stated, if nothing transpires it will fall to the depths of non-posting threads before it.


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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:46 PM) *
What is the CORRECT date?

IF you are speaking of the threat for the image you posted, your answer is there.

Mind you, just 4 runs ago - even this system was shown to be a cutter.

So, I would say the adjustment in dates would be 1/9-11. Again, you should PM JDRenken and consult on the dates, if you plan to adjust them.

Hope that helps.
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shaulov4
post Dec 28 2016, 01:50 PM
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Hope everyone had a merry Christmas and or a Happy Chanukah, Good that you changed the date StormTracker, GEFS has been flirting with this time frame as well as the ECWMF,and GFS. Feeling more optimistic as we head into January.
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 01:50 PM) *
Hope everyone had a merry Christmas and or a Happy Chanukah, Good that you changed the date StormTracker, GEFS has been flirting with this time frame as well as the ECWMF,and GFS. Feeling more optimistic as we head into January.

Me too, hopefully the jet shifts east instead of having cutters.
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shaulov4
post Dec 28 2016, 02:02 PM
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Euro shows a suppressed look, but thats just the op, need to look at the ESP will updated you guys later.
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stilko4
post Dec 28 2016, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM) *
On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS

I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Dec 28 2016, 04:01 PM) *
I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area

You answered your own question pal, it's too far out. Right now all we care about is the fact that it's a colder period and hopefully a storm rides the jet.
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yamvmax
post Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Dec 28 2016, 05:01 PM) *
I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area

This is the best look we have had so far for the coast. although, we are far out though.

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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 05:17 PM
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So, I went and looked at the CFS time frame that started this post. I found that the dates for that image are in line with the original date of 1/6-8.

Now, we've switched to the 9-11. If that is allowed to stand as is, then the thread creator is somewhat obligated to show images or other support for this time pd. Otherwise, it could be understood by some to be wishcasting.

IF you are going to stick to the 9-11 dates, you should edit the original post - and place images that support that time period.

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jdrenken
post Dec 28 2016, 05:24 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 04:17 PM) *
So, I went and looked at the CFS time frame that started this post. I found that the dates for that image are in line with the original date of 1/6-8.

Now, we've switched to the 9-11. If that is allowed to stand as is, then the thread creator is somewhat obligated to show images or other support for this time pd. Otherwise, it could be understood by some to be wishcasting.

IF you are going to stick to the 9-11 dates, you should edit the original post - and place images that support that time period.


I didn't even realize the original dates were the 6th-8th! That being said...let's allow this to die since it was based on the CFS anyway.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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