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> California Weather 'Coffee Talk'-S.F. Bay Area, Forecasts and Observations- "Discuss amongst yourselves"
idecline
post Aug 23 2011, 06:11 AM
Post #21




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Coffee Talk:
Aug. 23, 2011


Update....Fog, fog and more fog....Saturday was the worst of the weekend days....no break until 4pm in the San Lorenzo Valley and the beaches barely at all.....fog rolled in heavy everywhere by 5:30 pm.

Well i guess i missed the decent weather Santa Cruz had when i was up in Santa Rosa jinxing their weather....i seem to at the place that has the most fog when i am there...Tonight and this morning the NWS has issued a dense fog advisory for the Coastal regions of Northern California..

.DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS PLUS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY.

*

* VISIBILITY: A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS -- POSSIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS: MOTORISTS WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER AREAS THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL HIGHWAYS AND ADJACENT ROADS WHERE DRIVING BECOMES DIFFICULT DUE TO VERY POOR VISIBILITIES. ANYONE PLANNING ON TRAVELING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE TIME TO GET TO DESTINATIONS.

* LOCATION: THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DENSE FOG WILL STRETCH FROM POINT REYES SOUTHWARD TO THE MONTEREY COASTLINE. PLACES ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 1 SUCH AS HALF MOON BAY...PACIFICA...AND AROUND WATSONVILLE WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES. THE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH INTO THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY AND COULD IMPACT AREAS AROUND THE CITY OF SALINAS ALONG WITH HIGHWAY 68 GOING BETWEEN SALINAS AND MONTEREY.

*

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

So there i wasn't kidding...fog horns are doing their best across the whole region to warn vessels away from peril....and hot coffee is being consumed by the cupful in the month of August...

Coffee in August...you ask? Well...come to 'Sunny California' and drink coffee all morning....then go to beach when the sun peeks through the gray haze and enjoy pleasant afternoon breezes.

Our best weather is still ahead of us..*fingers crossed* ....September is the 'warmest' month on the Central Coast....so we are looking for Off-shore Flow to come to town....

In the meanwhile Irene churning in the Atlantic makes all of this seem very silly....Keep your eyes and ears open to all advisories if anywhere near hwer potential path...Irene will be quite a storm to say the least...Goodnight


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Aug 30 2011, 04:04 AM
Post #22




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Coffee Talk

August 30, 2011

Here we are only 4 days from the last big weekend Holiday of the summer....Labor Day Weekend....

Our weather here in Santa Cruz has basically been poor...fog has persisted every morning lately..with slow clearing to the coast...it is hard to get to 70F lately with a marine layer more reminiscent of June rather than August. Inland areas have finally been heating up some...San Jose has been in the 80's and Morgan Hill and Gilroy have had a few 90's...but definitely no heat waves this summer.

The Pacific Ocean satellite looks pretty innocuous right now with only a slight push of troughy-ness coming from the North...the usual monsoon push from the deserts has been almost non-existent this year with no major ridge setting up shop offshore and the Southwestern high has seemed less of an influence to California's weather...especially at the Coast.

Up here on the Central Coast we are really hoping for our version of Indian Summer...when offshore winds from the interior of the State blow towards the coast and are heated further by the compression of moving 'downhill'. This often allows the marine layer to be pushed far offshore with warm to hot conditions right on the Coast.....Here's hoping to heat in September and October...

Coffee Talk:
Sitting here at 1:45 am PDT with an outside temp. of 55F and foggy you really couldn't tell what month it was if you didn't know....On night shift this is the weather I get to 'enjoy' most of the year...the winter is usually the best season on night shift because wind, rain, and storminess is more interesting to watch. Since it is dark and dreary outside ...it must be time for a cup of coffee and a snack...I brought my own coffee from home...so I am ready to enjoy a cup of Sumatran coffee...

Everyone enjoy the last big weekend of the summer and BBQ whatever you can for maybe the last time this year....We will be drinking coffee and maybe having S'mores around a blazing campfire on the beach.

Just a tidbit I borrowed from Accuwx news page:

This Day In Weather History

Santa Cruz (1929)
Coastal steamer San Juan (over 2,000 tons) was rammed off Pigeon Point near Santa Cruz, Calif., by the oil tanker S.C.T. Doss which was proceeding at "excessive speed in fog without sounding fog signals". 70 passengers and crew of San Juan drowned.

A piece of local history that is confirmed by the foghorns that still sound almost every night when the fog is heavy....Pigeon Point is actually quite a ways North of Santa Cruz along the Highway 1...but that was the 'headline' city at the time.....

I getting misty eyed (from the fog)...Local History on Accuwx......A cup of hot coffee....Labor Day Weekend

It's all too much to think about...I'm getting Verklempt....Topic:."The demise of Summer and onset of Fall"
Discuss....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Sep 25 2011, 06:19 AM
Post #23




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Coffee Talk!


September 25, 2011



Headline: Rain In California!?


Here it is folks....I'm already having a time of it telling you this.....Rain..yes...R..A..I..N...(sorry for yelling!)

I was listening to NOAA radio broadcast earlier in the day, and they were predicting rain on Sunday afternoon as far South as the Monterey Bay...(coincidentally where the NWS station is...) ...

When I viewed the satellite of the front moving down like it was going to impact the Bay Area...I was thrilled....well....at least weather is interesting again...instead of the fog and then the warm spell we've been having....

It looks like a reinforcement of moist air got pulled in at the last minute and this should insure that at least sprinkles reach our Coast...but the Santa Cruz Mountains could scare up a half inch of rain if the airmass is as moist as it appears to be...

So...careful driving is needed...wet pavement is always very slippery after many months of dry weather..
In fact the radio stated 'The First Significant Pacific Cold Front of the Season' or something like that...

I feel vindicated in enjoying a cup of coffee...looking a real live weather system approaching the California Coast...it's already raining in Eureka and sliding South...I'm a little too jittery from all the caffeine....can't talk right now ...just going to observe....and here is a subject for you to discuss...

Is the pattern across NA as it looks right now --Trough, Ridge, Trough--W>E...a harbinger of the Winter pattern?

Discuss.....Talk Amongst Yourselves....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 3 2011, 04:51 AM
Post #24




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Coffee Talk


Oct. 3, 2011
2:15 am PDT

Welcome....To the future of California weather.....The first real rainstorm of the season is quickly approaching the Central California Coast...Last weeks front did the usual (not living up to the hype)..
With the dry air in place for so long it always takes a little more oomph for the first few storms to get very far South this early in the rainy season. The approaching 'storm' has a classic extra-tropical cyclone shape, with an intense low spinning up near the Gulf of Alaska. A good fetch of moisture is being pulled up into the front..so it looks like the Bay Area will get a good dose of rain tomorrow. With a very active jet stream and a high-amplitude pattern setting up...it looks like several days of stormy weather are in store for the West Coast.

Monday's rain should reach as far as Monterey by early afternoon....then with the low seeming to be gathering strength in the GOA, the second wave of the storm could be quite a rain and snow producer depending on the elevation. Satellite photos show a classic comma shaped storm with a jet stream pattern very reminiscent of later season storms.

We will see how this storm plays out..the moisture feed seems very good..it just depends on where the focus of the jet places the greatest intensity in the trailing cold front...and which areas get lined up with the heaviest concentration of rain and winds.

I don't think it would be off by much to think that some Coastal mountains regions could get 3-5" of rain by the time we get to Friday....The San Lorenzo Valley got 10"+ of rain in a similar early season storm just 2 years ago...and the Mendocino coast will probably get a large amount of rainfall with the current storm by looking at the axis of the storm tonight.

Put on your coffee pots, espresso machines, or (bleh!) make some instant coffee...if you like winter-type weather..then we could be in for a wacky ride this week. The Sierras will definitely be pummeled by rain and snow in what may be a good start to a long season.

I'm getting too excited already....I'm getting Verklempt....can't go on...

Subject...Is this the beginning of a pattern set-up of what the winter storm pattern will look like for the rest of the CONUS?.....

Of course only time will tell...but a highly amplified pattern signals the onset of new 'attractors' that the jet stream utilizes as is 'navigational' guides for its storm enhancing power....The rest of the country should keep their eyes open and follow the progress of these 'waves' of energy off of the Pacific...and how they traverse across the country riding the Westerlies and an active Polar jet.

Update next week (hopefully)....

This post has been edited by idecline: Oct 3 2011, 07:35 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 11 2011, 06:06 AM
Post #25




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Coffee Talk


Oct. 11, 2011

Well it was a wet week for Northern California...the last of the showers were Thursday night into Friday morning from the big trough of low pressure that moved through early last week.
Now it has lightly rained or drizzled most of yesterday and this morning (Tuesday early am) with warm temperatures and high dewpoints. All of the Bay Area is staying warm and humid tonight as is about 60 degrees at this late hour.

A very strong low is still spinning up in the Gulf Of Alaska and helped propel this most recent front through a very weak ridge of high pressure...it feels like the atmosphere is trying to set up a West to East flow with ample moisture being fed in by the jet stream and the rotation of the Gulf of Alaska low pressure.

If the ridge builds once this moisture moves out...then an offshore flow pattern may send the temperatures soaring for a day or two....the jet will focus its next wave of storminess on the Northwest.
If the low persists in the Gulf of Alaska instead of moving inland then California may be back in the range of rain showers by late next week if a front sneaks in like this most recent one did.

With 70's and 80's expected for the region in the next few days we could be back to some of the best weather of the year....Autumn brings offshore winds to the Central and Southern California coasts often producing high temperatures...and the often windy, dry conditions that make for fire danger....hopefully the recent rains have upped the moisture content so that the fields and hillsides are not tinder-dry.

A dose of 'Summer' sun would be a nice way to segue into the colder, wetter months to come...
So here's hoping to a week or two of warmer more pleasant conditions....sunny with light offshore winds....a little bit of a front or two sliding by to the very Northern edge of the State but no big rainstorms...for the time being....

Coffee Break: If you are a late shift worker and you like coffee ...I recommend using a single cup drip filter or a French press to make your own personal cup of coffee...vending machine coffee is terrible....and instant is coffee-flavored water most of the time....plus you'll probably enjoy it more because it won't be lukewarm, or boiled or bitter like cheap or overheated coffee can taste...

Rain one day...heat wave a couple days later...California's weather for the first 10 days of October has been interesting...it makes up for the mild, foggy summer that seemed to be somewhat cool with very few heatwaves...

Speaking of heatwaves...I'm listening to our Governor's ex-girlfriend (from his previous incarnation as Governor of California...when he drove a Plymouth Valiant and dated girls like Linda Ronstadt.) sing her hit song "Heatwave"....it's warm, humid, I'm getting Verklempt... need to sit down before i /,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;;;;;;;;;;;;;,o[[[[[[[[
[[[[[oooooz[ka[
o[sssssssooooooosssssssssssssssseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
ouneeexxxttwweeeeeeeeek!





--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 17 2011, 09:00 AM
Post #26




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Coffee Talk



Oct. 17, 2011



Good Morning!

Clear skies and fair weather is dominating the Central Coast today. The temperature should get up to the high 70's today at most of the South facing beaches like Santa Cruz. An anomalous low pressure system is sitting well offshore and is directing storms to the North. This cutoff low has scrubbed away the marine layer and winds are light, and October sun can heat up the area pretty quickly without the usual fog and marine influence. A bit of mugginess may set in today as the low has been sending bands of high to mid-level clouds over our area.

You just can't beat the Central Coast for weather this time of year...Fall is being delayed so that people have time to go to the beach whilst ruminating about what costume to wear for Halloween.

Coffee Talk: One of my favorite dance club songs of the 1980's was "Everyday Is Like Halloween" by Ministry....Santa Cruz would certainly love that....Halloween is the biggest holidays of the year in Santa Cruz...the town that likes being weird really gets weird near Halloween...and just about everybody has some alter-ego that they feel compelled to dress up as...

I guess mine should be a big cup of coffee....but I might scald myself permanently if I spilled my costume...

That's it for now ...see you at the beach.....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Oct 31 2011, 09:01 AM
Post #27




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Coffee Talk



Halloween Talk!





Oct. 31, 2011

Well it's official....The Brazilians have taken over Santa Cruz....and not we are not talking about waxing.

Unless, of course, you are an oldtimer and are thinking of surfboard wax....because it's official Miguel Pupo was the Champion of the 2011 O'Neill Coldwater Classic at Santa Cruz.

The Brazilian ace beat his countryman Willian Cardoso to not only collect top prize for this event , but to garner the 3 race series Championship...a cool $90,000 dollars total.

Waves were small and Sunday's event was moved to Waddell Creek Beach North of Santa Cruz...the beach break as windy with small jumbled waves, but Miguel aired many times and pulled off the win.


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 1 2011, 01:14 AM
Post #28




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Oct. 31, 2011

Well....Downtown Santa Cruz is packed with people tonight as the biggest holiday in town holds sway.
Halloween is like a national holiday in Santa Cruz, everybody dresses up and crowds the whole downtown, bar-hopping, partying, and generally just being weird. For the town famous for The Lost Boys, the Halloween festivities take on a whole new meaning to the locals.

Luckily the weather has held up the last few weeks and stayed warm and dry. The days have been mild in the 70's and nights are getting cooler with lows in the 40's to low 50's.

But the NWS has provided a local weather advisory...(couresy Accuweather):

QUOTE
...BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER WITH SHOWERY...BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...

A COUPLE OF COLD WEATHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES...ALONG WITH COOL CONDITIONS...TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...USHERING IN A CHILLY AIRMASS. BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 3000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO IN THE INLAND VALLEYS OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

ANOTHER COLD WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS...AND THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION...SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE FROST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


We will see if this pans out to be as cold and wet as predicted....but the first cold storm and Northern air is definitely headed our way. The frosts will of most concern in the Napa Valley wine growing regions and in some of the more isolated areas of the Salinas Valley.

The witching hour will soon be upon us here on the Left Coast....so everybody be safe....and if you are in Santa Cruz (Santa Carla) then watchout for vampires...especially if they look like Kiefer Sutherland...

And remember.....
People Are Strange


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Nov 29 2011, 07:15 AM
Post #29




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Coffee Talk!


Nov. 29, 2011

So everyone is upset at Idee, the cards and letters have been streaming into the mailbox.

Everyone's upset about the lack of Coffee Talk updates and weather info about the Monterey and San Francisco Bay Areas. Well we are in luck as something is blowing in the winds of change tonight.

Courtesy Accuweather:
QUOTE
Santa Cruz, CA Weather Advisories, Watches & Warnings
HIGH WIND WARNING
in effect until Thursday, Dec 1, 6:00 AM

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN FRANCISCO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM PST THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 40 MPH WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HILLS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

* IMPACTS: A POTENTIALLY DAMAGING AND PROLONGED WIND STORM WILL BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ANY LOOSE OBJECTS NOT TIED DOWN WILL BLOW AROUND. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE PRONE TO THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRUCTURE OR WILDFIRES COULD BE UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&


I know that this is not really that exciting, but California weather is not always predictable or interesting.
It just gives people the chance to be prepared for any potential effects from one of notorious Santa Ana wind storms..actually named Diablo winds in Central California...
These winds usually occur in the Fall and Early Winter when a dry front from the Northwest creates a steep pressure gradient over the State of California, the winds can be channeled through mountain passes at speeds of 70-80 mph. In Southern California these winds play havoc with trucks that dare try to cross some of the passes above the LA basin.

Sometimes these strong NE winds will heat up the coast in what we call an off-shore wind event, but it looks as if this will be a cooler wild wind event rather than something to send everyone to the beaches.
It will pleasant with very little coastal fog for the next several days and the coast may end being warmer than some of the inland valleys that are experiencing Tule (raditional) fog.

Either way it is time to take a break ...have a nice cup of coffee and maybe a pastry...just let the mind wander....

Soon enough the weather will turn to our usual 'rainy season' type of regime...with extratropical cyclones being sent into the Pacific Northwest and the stronger, deeper lows making inroads into California for our welcomed rains...I will be more diligent in reporting about the wild , wet winter weather when we start to get a series of storms setting up in the Gulf Of Alaska...

For now...subject of discussion......Global Warming and the semantics of meteorological terms as they reflect upon the non-scientific community and their perceptions of weatherpersons and forecasting...

Talk amongst yourselves......


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Dec 6 2011, 04:22 AM
Post #30




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Coffee Talk!


Dec. 6, 2011

So Idee made fun of the wind event....and boy was he sorry.......

Power was out in the San Lorenzo Valley...(just above Santa Cruz)....for 36-72 hours....29,000 people were without power at the height of the wind storm. Wednesday had consistent winds of about 20-30 mph with gusts to 50, 60 and even 70 mph...Needless to say many trees and limbs came down.

Idee was pummeled for 3 days by giant redwood limbs crashing down on the cabin...we have about 80 redwoods on the lot and they were slamming against each other and sending limbs raining down from 200ft plus heights...Needless to say Idee was huddled in the corner...hoping that none of them would severely damage any thing or anyone!

Having only electric heat the house was without power....so it got cold inside...no cooking and no shower...

couldn't find his single burner campstove...so no Coffee! mad.gif

This made idee very upset...Thursday morning drove to Scotts Valley to find the power out there also...a restaurant that had a gas stove was serving ...and all the 'mountain' people were there to get some food and hot coffee...that made the day tolerable...

The winds eased off Thursday afternoon but began to blow again by nightfall....still strong but most of the limbs had already come down by then.....Idees power came back on at 6 pm Friday afternoon...

So next time a 'high' pressure center is moving in.....he can raise as much havoc as those pesky 'lows'..

Another case of where weather is like most things...we look at the things that catch our eyes...like low pressure systems and storms do on a satellite picture...But the less obvious things like 'highs' have as much influence on the weather as anything else...and despite no 'storminess'..this 'wind event' caused significant damage all over the Western US.

It seems that it is best to pay attention to both highs and lows....the 'stars' and the 'supporting' cast...
because the frame work of everything is made of many parts...not just the things that grab our attention.....

Idee is getting verklempt...can't talk....too much to take in.....life lessons.....

See you next week...hopefully with some rain to report and the end of this dry, cool weather ....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Dec 12 2011, 05:35 AM
Post #31




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Coffee Talk!


Dec. 12, 2011

The wind event is over, but the clean up is still continuing...we have taken over 5 pick-up loads of redwood litter and limbs to the recycling/ waste dumpsite...Some green limbs were 30-40 ft. long and only came down because of the jousting match that the trees were forced into by the fierce winds.

Now a little over a week later we have had a brief bit of light rain come through...On Saturday night an odd little wave of low pressure came up from the South..and spun over Central California...It was just enough to cloud up the sky and leave a little energy behind for today's front to drop a little rain on the Coast...As this front slides South the vorticity from the Southern flow will spin up a little more rain in the Southern California area before the sub-tropical jet sends the moisture Eastwards. and Central California seem to be in a pattern of moisture starved storms barely making inroads before they are forced East over the Sierras. La Nina pattern can be very unpredictable in its generosity of rain that it provides to California. Last year the 'inside slider' pattern we had gave us some cool rainstorms as the lows came generally straight down the coast or just inland. This year we seem to be drier with a tendency for the Pacific high pressure to be nosing closer to the coast and a little farther North for this time of year. This has prevented any major rainstorms from slamming into the West Coast so far.

Another weak front is predicted to graze the coastline later this week...A large storm is approaching the Aleutian Islands in the Gulf of Alaska...it remains to be seen if this storm can create some momentum for a more typical wet winter pattern to set up...Hopefully we will get a period of soaking rains sometime this Winter...otherwise it could be a long, dry summer without the significant winter rains that we rely upon.

Coffee Talk: The last two weeks have some very cold nights along the Central Coast and Salinas Valley...frost has been widespread in the mountains and southern Salinas Valley...at least the cloudiness has raised the nighttime lows up and moistened the extremely dry air that the windstorm left. So cool damp weather is coffee weather and Holiday shopping gets people outside looking for a cup of 'Joe' to heal tired shopping minds...Coffee and coffee making accessories also make great gifts.

So the question is..."Will California get significant rainfall this Winter...or has La Nina's grip on the weather got a chokehold on the moisture trail for the State"? Stay tuned....



--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Dec 19 2011, 03:29 AM
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Coffee Talk ~ Holiday Edition


Dec. 18, 2011

Only 1 week left 'til Christmas.....so get your preparations ready....or get your travelin' shoes on...and Go!

The weather here in Central California has really gotten out of control....the Bay Area is basking in the throes of a La Nina winter dry spell...A big ridge of high pressure is parked in the Pacific and is not letting much activity through it's dry, sinking air. The few moisture starved fronts that have made it to California have slid by the Bay Area with little or no significant rainfall. When the lows hit the bottom of trough they spin up over S. Cal and leave a small amount of rain and mixed precipitation in the Southland. This energy gets picked up by a rather active sub-tropical jet which sends the moisture up through the desert Southwest.
This pattern is what is creating a nightmare rain and snowstorm for the middle of the country this week.

It is the time of year when Californians start to worry about the dreaded 'd' word...drought....We have had an extremely dry December with a serious windstorm to top it off. The warm days are nice but the cold nights with high pressure near 30.25in are really uncomfortable...the chill is a lot for us spoiled Californians to take...frost has been widespread with some areas getting into the 20's at night..

The odd thing about the present weather pattern seems to be the lack of activity from the polar jet...everything is being shunted far North and the Pacific high seems stronger and more Northerly this year. Even an odd bit of tropical clouds seems to be pushing across the E. Pacific from Hawaii by slipping under the ridge from time to time...and cut-off lows over SoCal have been the norm.

All in all a very aggravating pattern for N.Cal because we are not quite warm enough to pretending it is still Fall like Southern Californians can...Most are looking for some rain and storms to drop in from the Gulf of Alaska and give us our seasonal rain plus move out the stagnant winter air trapped by the valleys inversion layer.

: Bring on the rain.....then there is something interesting to watch on the satellite weather and we don't have to start fretting about 'water' problems and restrictions in the summer months.
Meanwhile ......Back at the Ranch....some areas of the State are near record dry levels for December...and the forecast is for rain to be absent until maybe even January...

Happy Holidays everyone......Merry Christmas...Happy Hanukkah...or whatever your religious or non-religious way to celebrate the darkest days of the year....the end of the cycle...the reaching towards light once again...and the end of the old year......Celebrate!


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Jan 3 2012, 07:11 AM
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Drought Talk?


January 3, 2012

So Christmas....Chanukah....Kwanzaa.....Winter Solstice.....Bah Humbug...or whatever you celebrate or ignore or believe or dis-believe.....

Well the Holidays are OVER....and New Years has come and gone.....and the "D" word has been spoken...

Cards and letters have been pouring in....certainly no rain has been...to our offices (Mom's sewing room) and begging Idee to discuss openly his orientation....on the subject of drought ...of course....

I have been amiss in posting...only because the Holidays were upon us and I have cut back on employees(both lies).
Okay...well ...Drought seems to be upon us....only a mild Winter so far ...little to no rain most areas especially some locales in Southern California...

But 'Caveat Emptor' (or is it 'Carpe Diem' huh.gif ) ...to those who buy into the 'Drought' theory...I have seen many a Winter with nary a drop of rain until even February end up close to 'normals' by the end of the rain season (June).
Finally a storm is wrapping up nicely in the GOA...and causing some circulation which draws in some colder air from the North...this in turn keeps the Jet Stream a little more active and maybe by February we can get some actual troughs to dig South enough to take advantage of the moisture seeping North from more Equatorial climes...

So the word has been 'outed'.....as a Californian we have a right to worry about the "D" word..

Drought


So with models in disarray as to the future....What say you? Dry...or rain....or wait for the "March Miracle"?

Discuss amongst yourselves....Idee is getting Verklempt....no ...It's just the dry, stale air of rainless days...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Feb 7 2012, 09:45 AM
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Coffee Talk!


Feb. 7, 2012

Well we are back after a month-long hiatus....but the doctor said just wait until the weather changes...

Finally much needed rain is spreading across California. Unfortunately the front has become occluded and the low jettisoned up towards the GOA. This often happens when a blocking ridge sets up over Oregon and Idaho, the jet grabs the moisture and feeds it all the way back up towards Alaska. Its seems that there is a lot of activity forming out in the Central N. Pacific and if a consistent low can form in the GOA, then maybe storms can make it inland without the jet stream pulling the energy Northward.

We will just have to settle for strong winds with some gale force gusts today. If some of the moisture can stick around then maybe we will get more rain than wind once the main front passes. It is really hard to predict this winter weather this year, the jet wants to send the moisture back into Alaska. If this first front makes a decent dent in the dry air over the Great Basin, then it looks like some more energy may be headed our way. For now we just have to watch storm after storm get pulled apart like it is made of Salt-Water Taffy.

Attached File  post_19931_1327909577.gif ( 54.47K ) Number of downloads: 0



Let's hope that the Sub-Tropical jet stream is going to grab more moisture and start helping these systems out in the next few weeks.

In the meanwhile: Continued Drought or Turn-about?

Discuss amongst yourselves...I'm getting light headed....maybe even Verklempt....where's the doctor..


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Feb 13 2012, 06:14 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 7 2012, 06:45 AM) *
Coffee Talk!


Feb. 7, 2012

Well we are back after a month-long hiatus....but the doctor said just wait until the weather changes...

Finally much needed rain is spreading across California. Unfortunately the front has become occluded and the low jettisoned up towards the GOA. This often happens when a blocking ridge sets up over Oregon and Idaho, the jet grabs the moisture and feeds it all the way back up towards Alaska. Its seems that there is a lot of activity forming out in the Central N. Pacific and if a consistent low can form in the GOA, then maybe storms can make it inland without the jet stream pulling the energy Northward.

We will just have to settle for strong winds with some gale force gusts today. If some of the moisture can stick around then maybe we will get more rain than wind once the main front passes. It is really hard to predict this winter weather this year, the jet wants to send the moisture back into Alaska. If this first front makes a decent dent in the dry air over the Great Basin, then it looks like some more energy may be headed our way. For now we just have to watch storm after storm get pulled apart like it is made of Salt-Water Taffy.

Attached File  post_19931_1327909577.gif ( 54.47K ) Number of downloads: 0

Let's hope that the Sub-Tropical jet stream is going to grab more moisture and start helping these systems out in the next few weeks.

In the meanwhile: Continued Drought or Turn-about?

Discuss amongst yourselves...I'm getting light headed....maybe even Verklempt....where's the doctor..


The first half of February has been a bust, but hopefully the second half will have a lot more to offer. If not, then maybe we can get a "March Miracle" like in 2006. And if not that, then - well..... unsure.gif


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.37" (+0.21")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.16"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Feb 14 2012, 04:31 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Feb 13 2012, 06:14 PM) *
The first half of February has been a bust, but hopefully the second half will have a lot more to offer. If not, then maybe we can get a "March Miracle" like in 2006. And if not that, then - well..... unsure.gif


rolleyes.gif Thanks Beck for reading!

Coffee Talk!
subtitle: It never rains in Southern California?


GOA is getting busy....storms are lining up and looking vigorous...Where will the jet stream take them?

Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 828.72K ) Number of downloads: 1

^^^
This low in the GOA is really spinning tightly and is deepening in pressure. If it can keep its act together then we may be seeing the beginning of a pattern change . The jet stream has been getting a little more amplified lately across the CONUS and cold air is pushing down from Canada in the Great Lakes region.
If some persistence in this pattern can maintain then a series of storms should be impacting the West Coast and venture across the US in the next two weeks. The dynamics in the Pacific Ocean are looking the most 'winter-like' that I have observed all season. If my well-trained (yet unprofessional) eye does not deceive me then we still have a shot at some 'winter' rains and snow for the Sierras. Especially the snowpack in the Sierras has been well below normal and these storms look well connected with the sub-tropics.

SO everybody put on your make-up, or Rain-God outfit, or be Burt Lancaster in the 'Rainmaker'...

AND let's start our Rain Dances and get the entire State of California some lasting beneficial rain and snow to put a dent in our potential water-defecit future.....water restrictions and Forest fires are not good..

I'm running out of breath...I just hope my long-winded diatribe has some merit...Too much coffee?


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Beck
post Feb 15 2012, 01:28 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 14 2012, 01:31 AM) *
rolleyes.gif Thanks Beck for reading!

Coffee Talk!
subtitle: It never rains in Southern California?


GOA is getting busy....storms are lining up and looking vigorous...Where will the jet stream take them?

Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 828.72K ) Number of downloads: 1

^^^
This low in the GOA is really spinning tightly and is deepening in pressure. If it can keep its act together then we may be seeing the beginning of a pattern change . The jet stream has been getting a little more amplified lately across the CONUS and cold air is pushing down from Canada in the Great Lakes region.
If some persistence in this pattern can maintain then a series of storms should be impacting the West Coast and venture across the US in the next two weeks. The dynamics in the Pacific Ocean are looking the most 'winter-like' that I have observed all season. If my well-trained (yet unprofessional) eye does not deceive me then we still have a shot at some 'winter' rains and snow for the Sierras. Especially the snowpack in the Sierras has been well below normal and these storms look well connected with the sub-tropics.

SO everybody put on your make-up, or Rain-God outfit, or be Burt Lancaster in the 'Rainmaker'...

AND let's start our Rain Dances and get the entire State of California some lasting beneficial rain and snow to put a dent in our potential water-defecit future.....water restrictions and Forest fires are not good..

I'm running out of breath...I just hope my long-winded diatribe has some merit...Too much coffee?

It definitely should be that way, but none of the computer models nor forecasts are hinting at it. We'll have to deal with this dry February (and most of the winter so far), for the time being.

But even after these dry winter months, we could still avoid a potentially devastating fire season later this year if we just get a wet Spring like we did in 2006. The months of March, April, and May being as wet as they were prevented what could have been a horrible fire season - despite the exceptionally dry winter up until late February; despite the record-shattering hot June and July months.

Since it's looking like this February will remain well below normal, we're counting on a "March Miracle" at this point. There have only been a small handful of "March Miracle" winters recorded in SoCal since 1921, and those were 1923-24, 1962-63, 1990-91 and 2005-06.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.37" (+0.21")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.16"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.81"

Temecula Weather Pages

QUOTE(wingsovernc @ Sep 13 2014, 04:20 PM) *
You're cute when you're whining Becky :)
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idecline
post Mar 6 2012, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Feb 15 2012, 01:28 AM) *
It definitely should be that way, but none of the computer models nor forecasts are hinting at it. We'll have to deal with this dry February (and most of the winter so far), for the time being.

But even after these dry winter months, we could still avoid a potentially devastating fire season later this year if we just get a wet Spring like we did in 2006. The months of March, April, and May being as wet as they were prevented what could have been a horrible fire season - despite the exceptionally dry winter up until late February; despite the record-shattering hot June and July months.

Since it's looking like this February will remain well below normal, we're counting on a "March Miracle" at this point. There have only been a small handful of "March Miracle" winters recorded in SoCal since 1921, and those were 1923-24, 1962-63, 1990-91 and 2005-06.


Well computers are only computers, the dynamics of a 'chaotic' system are very hard to determine in long-term forecasts. The general pattern of ENSO affects how the 'usual' patterns of weather progress.
In El Nino years, it is a true aberration of 'normal' conditions with warmer water along the West Coast and the main area of convection in the N. Pacific ocean shifts East towards the US. In 'normal' and La Nina years we have upwelling along the coast with the cooler waters prevailing.

In general the Pacific Basin acts likes a large bathtub with more convection and lower pressure over the Indonesian archipelago, this 'collects' the warmer ocean waters in the Western Pacific basin. The thermocline stays depressed (no upwelling). while the Eastern Pacific water is cooler with onshore winds and upwelling. The surface water builds up also creating a build-up of water in the Western basin, it can be several feet higher of the coast of Borneo than it is off the coast of Peru. When the water sloshes back towards the Eastern Pacific it comes over courtesy of the Kelvin waves which use the equator as a wave guide. This is when an El Nino can occur, when a consistent change in the equatorial trade winds blows towards the East and pushes warmer, moist air Westward and creates more convection along the Eastern Pacific Basin. to be continued...


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Mar 11 2012, 07:56 AM
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So the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is favorable....and jet stream amplitude occurring....

NWS Weather Statement ! :

QUOTE
..SEVERAL DAYS OF WET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MEAN WET WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON SUNDAY. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY A WETTER AND MORE VIGOROUS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY IN THE NORTH BAY AND ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN FLOODING AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL OCCUR BY LATER THIS WEEK AND SOME OF THESE SMALLER STREAMS MAY REACH BANKFULL...PARTICULARLY IF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS OVER ANY ONE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS WEEK...LARGER RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AMPLE CAPACITY TO HANDLE RUNOFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ANY CASE...PEOPLE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY AND FROM 1.5 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THESE PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ONLY ROUGH ESTIMATES BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY...PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY AT TIMES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE WINDIER LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN AHEAD AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE TRAFFIC DELAYS. ANYONE PLANNING TRAVEL TO THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE WINTER STORM CONDITIONS AND SHOULD CHECK LOCAL WEATHER AND ROAD REPORTS BEFORE DEPARTING.


Patience....Grasshopper....Patience.....


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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idecline
post Mar 13 2012, 02:54 AM
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Coffee Talk

subtitle: Let It Rain!


Welcome to the first day of Winter! dry.gif

Finally the jet stream has dug a big enough trough for the State of California to get a series of wet storms,
bringing much needed rain to the valleys and snow to the Sierra's.

Oh happy happy joy joy!!!
What a wonderful sight to see masses of clouds circulating in the GOA sending down fronts screaming into California with drenching rains, winds and general storminess.
A lot of people complain (there's a thread for that in games) that California doesn't get any weather but in reality it almost all comes in the months between October and April. After that chances for rain drop substantially and only summer monsoon brings a few downpours(mostly to SoCal and the Sierras).

With much of the State 50-70% below normal rainfall to date...let's make a dent in that deficit (sounds Presidential doesn't it) dry.gif

As for Coffee Talk: Santa Cruz just held a regional competition for Barista's...those people who make exquisite espresso drinks at your local coffehouse...hosted by local up and coming coffee powerhouse Verve coffee roasters I'm sure the event left everyone shaking with excitement (too much caffeine)

It fact with too much caffeine and the excitement of the rain...Idee is getting Verklempt...can't talk..

Topic: Do solar flares impact the Stratosphere in such a way that electron excitation increase(or decreases) stormy weather, electrical discharges, and rainfall amounts?

Discuss amongst yourselves....
Off to continue the Rain Dancing.....until next weekend....Idee


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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