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> Kentucky Derby 2018 Weather Forecast...(Louisville, Kentucky), weather for the Kentucky Oaks (Fri. May 4th) also...
idecline
post Apr 25 2018, 08:15 PM
Post #1




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...The 144th edition of The Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 5th...
...the Kentucky Oaks is on Friday May 4th...both races are run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY

Rain, thunderstorms or even a wet track can have a profound effect on the running of the Kentucky Derby...
It can effect the track condition(dry, wet, or muddy) and change the strategies of the riders or trainers...
Also, some horses tend to run better in the mud or wet track than others...all these factors play an important role in the running and outcome of this "Run for the Roses"...

We will try to keep informed of the possibilities...especially starting Sunday Night into Monday...when a clearer picture of what is to come 10 days from now...so far the long term upper air models are forecasting strong thunderstorms in the Plains mid-week...so it looks like a wet or drying out track are already a big possibility...

...taken from the AccuWeather thread about Severe Weather from Apr. 30-May?
Attached File  r0P64ou.png ( 443.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this shows the 'possibility' of severe weather coming up next week...and Louisville and Churchill Downs may be in the firing line following this first mid-week outbreak...

Attached File  500wh.conus.png ( 632.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the upper air for midday Friday shows a definite system of some type may be encroaching on the area

Stay Tuned...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 30 2018, 07:40 PM
Post #2




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...a strong round of severe storms is going to hit the Plains into the MidWest/Great Lakes on Tuesday into Wednesday...bringing wet weather into the Louisville as early as Friday...as the front drags through some thunderstorms and rain may be falling on Churchill Downs late Friday into Saturday...
...this is an edit from the Louisville NWS Forecast Discussion...
QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
712 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018.
Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

The warmer weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s will
continue through mid week as upper level ridging remains in place
over the southeastern CONUS. A few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across portions
of southern IN as the atmosphere becomes unstable. PWATs will have
risen to around 1.25 inches, with surface dewpoints into the lower
60s. But without a focus for convection, most places should stay
dry. We will see a SCT-BKN cu field develop, so skies will trend
from mostly to partly sunny. It`ll feel like summer!

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by Thursday,
especially along and north of the Ohio River. But will pull slight
chance PoPs down through Fort Knox and Frankfort. The atmosphere
will become moderately unstable as the primary upper wave swings
east across the Plains.

A cold front will push through Friday into Friday night. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front as
it moves through. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures
Friday into the weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Showers could linger across southern KY into Saturday morning. An
upper trough swings through this weekend, and a secondary sfc
boundary drops south toward the Ohio River on Saturday. But it still
looks mainly dry at this point.


...this looks to be a close call...as much of the energy seems to head towards the Great Lakes...but rain likely at some point during the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby (Friday May 4 and Saturday May 5) time period...
Attached File  95ep48iwbg_fill.gif ( 28.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the QPF's (precipitation forecast) gives just lighter rain chances in the Louisville region...there is hope for a 'dry' track on Saturday... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 1 2018, 07:30 PM
Post #3




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...severe storms (w/isolated tornadoes)! are now moving through Kansas towards SE Nebraska...
Attached File  iswvcg8us.gif ( 202.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this energy is going to move northeast of the Louisville area...by Thursday the next round of sever is just north of the Louisville area...this should produce some rain into the area late Thursday into Friday...beyond that one more wave of energy could come through...perhaps buffeted a bit more north by high pressure in the SouthEast...
SPC Day 3 Forecast...sever weather forecast for Thursday...
Attached File  day3otlk_0730.gif ( 29.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 1 2018

On Thursday, surface high pressure over the SE US will continue to
drift eastward. A fair amount of upper level ridging will still be
seen across the region. Just to our west, on the periphery of the
ridge, a return flow of low-level moisture will gradually pool
across the mid-MS valley. CAMs shows the potential for some
scattered convection developing Thursday afternoon mainly from SE MO
through southern IL and into southern IN. Much of KY looks to
remain dry given the stronger ridging holding sway. Highs look to
warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s across southern IN where
more clouds will be located. Highs south and southeast of the Ohio
River look to warm into the 80-85 degree range.

As we move into Thursday night and Friday, a well advertised upper
level trough axis will push into the Ohio Valley. Associated with
the upper trough, a surface cold front will slowly push through the
region. Plentiful amounts of cloud cover are expected Thursday
night and Friday. Accompanying the front will be a band of showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two Thursday night. The front looks
to cross the region during the day on Friday with additional showers
and some thunderstorms. While the front will be stretching out and
jet support aloft pulls north and east, we may be able to realize
some surface based instability Friday afternoon. Much of the
instability will depend on cloud cover. In general, more clouds
would result in less instability while some breaks may allow pockets
of instability to develop. Based on current model trends, the best
instability looks to remain generally south and southwest of our
area. This is not all that different from the ongoing forecast, so
for now, will continue to carry mainly showers with a chance of
Thunderstorms. The showers and storms are expected to diminish
Friday evening from west to east. The expected amount of cloud cover
will likely keep temperatures down for Friday with highs in the mid-
upper 70s. Lows Friday night look to cool into the lower-mid 50s.

As we move into Saturday, the upper trough will settle across the
region as a slow moving cold front continues to drop south and east.
Majority of the model guidance keeps the front strung out across our
far southern forecast area. This would result in mainly dry
conditions across southern IN and northern KY with more clouds and
scattered showers across the south. Current indications suggest
that the best chances of precip on Saturday would generally south of
a line from Hartford to Richmond. Highs on Saturday look to warm
into the mid-upper 70s with lows Saturday night dropping into the
middle 50s.

For the Sunday through Tuesday period, the upper level pattern will
remain fairly amplified across North America. In general, a mean
trough looks to hold sway across the eastern third of the US which
will place the Ohio Valley in a northwesterly flow. A secondary
boundary looks to push through late Sunday night into Monday
bringing another round of showers to the region. After that, weak
high pressure looks to build into the region for Tuesday bringing
drier weather. Highs through the period will range from the lower
to middle 70s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.




--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 2 2018, 07:27 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...storms will be moving to the north of the Louisville area on Thursday...leading to a small chance of severe weather...mostly thunderstorms and rain overnight into Friday...could be a wet day and track on Friday for the Kentucky Oaks...by Saturday high pressure will start to build back in...leaving the possibility for a dry or at least a 'drying out' track by the post time for the Kentucky Derby rolls around at about 6:34 p.m. EDT...
Attached File  day3otlk_0730.gif ( 28.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


above is the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) graph of severe storm possibilities for Friday...it seems as if the front rolls through overnight Friday with lingering showers into Saturday according to NWS Louisville

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
746 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Thursday night, the Plains storm system finally ejects northeast
toward the Great Lakes. A wave of showers and thunderstorms is
likely to develop out ahead of the cold front and push into the
region after midnight. Friday looks to start showery for much of the
region with ISO-SCT thunder. It appears we could see a lull during
the afternoon, with some instability developing. Convective
initiation would then be likely along the cold front as it sinks
south Friday evening into Friday night. Highs on Friday look to
end up around 80.

Latest trend in the models is to slow this storm system as it passes
through this weekend. The surface boundary weakens considerably and
hangs up over KY Friday night into Saturday. Primary mid-level
trough finally swings in Saturday afternoon, pushing the precip out
of the region after 00z Saturday. Highest rain chances and amounts
are still over the southern half of Kentucky, but showers could
redevelop with daytime heating as far north as the Ohio River. There
is some uncertainty where the northern extent of the precip will be.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s.



Good Luck to everyone on Friday and Saturday...!!!


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 3 2018, 08:15 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...all of the severe storms yesterday really threw a 'monkey wrench' into the weather scene forecasts...
Attached File  iswvcg8us.gif ( 229.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


...todays WV (water vapor) loop shows all the seperate areas of 'disturbed' weather in the Plains, Great Lakes and some forming in Texas...this has redirected some energy of the front that is bearing down on the Louisville forecast area...the Kentucky Oaks on Friday may be hit by rain and thunderstorms...perhaps these will avoid the Churchill Downs area and move southeast before any of the 'big' races on Friday...
SPC day2
Attached File  day2otlk_1730.gif ( 28.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
SPC AC 031727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms, with a primary threat of damaging winds,
will be possible from New England to the Ohio Valley Friday. A few
severe storms, capable of damaging winds and isolated severe hail,
will also be possible over parts of Texas.

...Upper OH Valley into the Northeast...
A positive-tilt larger scale mid-level trough will push east into
the region as the primary vorticity maximum moves from the central
Great Lakes to the mouth of the St. Lawrence River. Likewise, a
surface low will develop northeast from central Lower MI during the
morning to near the NY/Quebec/Ontario border by early evening. A
plume of lower 60s dewpoints and some diurnal heating will result in
weak instability by early afternoon ahead of a cold front located
from Lake Erie southwestward into the lower OH Valley. The front
will sweep eastward during the afternoon and promote low-topped
thunderstorms developing near the front over the OH Valley and lower
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings show strong westerly low- to
mid-level flow which will support a risk for wind damage with the
stronger downdrafts. Farther east, a couple of isolated to
scattered clusters of thunderstorms will probably develop during the
afternoon as height falls overspread the area. A localized
wind/small hail risk may develop with this activity as well. Storm
intensity will likely diminish during the evening as instability
wanes.


only a marginal chance of 'severe' storms...the highly energetic front should roll through midday Friday with strong winds possible...dragging most of the rain and instability through in time for a 'clearing out' day into Saturday...

one last AFD from Louisville NWS(edited for tonight into Saturday) wink.gif

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
806 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018

Tonight

Overnight, the aforementioned low pressure races toward Wisconsin
and will bring a cold front toward the lower Ohio Valley by Friday
morning. Some moisture transport along the front interacting with
the low level jet overnight may bring scattered showers and storms
to the western forecast area by sunrise, then across the entire
forecast area during the morning hours. The NAM and GFS are the most
aggressive with the QPF, while a lot of the hi-res models such as the
WRF ARW, NMM and NSSL WRF along with the ECMWF indicate a lot less
QPF. As a result, kept precipitation chances in the 40 to 50 percent
range, highest west of I-65 overnight and generally kept thunder
chances low. But if the trends shown in the hi-res models continue,
then later forecasts may need to adjust precip chances down overnight
and Friday morning.

Friday Afternoon

The main forcing with this system quickly lifts toward New England
Friday and the surface front sags through the area during the
afternoon. Depending on destabilization and clearing potential
during the afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop across
southern IN then track southward into central KY. But the models
have backed off on the strength of the shear profiles and
instability parameters, so while a few stronger storms are possible,
the greater threat for severe weather is northeast of the forecast
area. Plan on highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Shower and storm
chances will remain low into Friday evening, especially across
central KY.

.Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 3 2018

Saturday

The front from Friday is expected to wash out across the TN/OH
Valley Friday night into Saturday. On Saturday, an area of low
pressure is forecast to track through the southern Appalachians
while a compact upper level low swings through the region. This
would bring moisture back into central Kentucky. The big question
for Saturday is how far north into Kentucky will showers reach. With
the 03.12z deterministic and ensemble guidance, there continues to
be an northward trend in the data that warrants precipitation
chances at least to the Ohio River. The highest chances for a
prolonged area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms continues to
be south central Kentucky. It is also worth noting that with the
increased rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures were brought
down a few more degrees. It may be a cooler day with highs staying
in the 60s where rain/clouds are most widespread. And some of the
raw gridded guidance suggests readings may not get out of the mid
60s across central Kentucky.


...hopefully the weather doesn't cause any problems...a little water will be on the track both days...perhaps they will be "sealing' the track tonight and tomorrow night...so the conditions may only be a 'wet fast' or fast...hopefully not a muddy track...turf races are hopefully not going to see enough rain to be taken"off the turf"...

Good Luck to Everyone...idee


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 7 2018, 06:14 PM
Post #6




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...well almost all of the rain fell on Kentucky Derby day...of course...and it was a 'sloppy' track... ohmy.gif

...my affiliation with "El-Lipsis" weather (known for it's 'omission' of words(and some insight)) does not "Justify" my poor forecast analysis of Kentucky Derby weather...

...on the other hand ...the horse "Justify" did 'justify' his hype and being made the 'post-time favorite by running the other 19 horses off their feet....
rolleyes.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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