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> January 2nd-4th MidAtl / NE storm, Possibility: Medium range (4-8 days out)
NYCSuburbs
post Dec 31 2013, 04:04 PM
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Just a reminder of the surface temps we're dealing with once those winds turn northerly and the tightening pressure gradient leads to strong winds which aid in strong CAA and rapidly drain the frigid Canadian temps into the region... if anything I'm concerned with flash freezing for the Mid Atlantic where temps crash from the 30s/40s into the 10s.


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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Dec 31 2013, 04:07 PM
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Violant V
post Dec 31 2013, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(coasterstorm @ Dec 31 2013, 04:04 PM) *
The notification bar on my iPod says for where I love in central/Southern New Jersey for Thursday with a high of 43 with a low of 16 and Friday with a high of 19 with a low of 3!

WSW just issued for NE NJ. Nothing for central or southern


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LUCC
post Dec 31 2013, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 31 2013, 03:46 PM) *
Looks more like a catch up than a new trend... we'll see where later runs take us. Interestingly the SREFs seem to be NW of the models with the low close to the benchmark although some members develop a low pressure over or very close to NJ.

Yup, even though the NAM totals look more like the GFS/Euro/etc. it does have the coastal a bit more NW than the others. All models have the snows for the SNE region, if the GFS and Euro move the coastal to the NAM we will be talking more snow in MidAtl.


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Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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DomNH
post Dec 31 2013, 04:11 PM
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Come on guys let's try to hold the quality of discussion to at least a little better standard.


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DiehardFF
post Dec 31 2013, 04:16 PM
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Lets see what the 18z GFS does... I like the trends on the NAM.



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UFASUPERSTORM
post Dec 31 2013, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(boblogic123 @ Dec 31 2013, 04:05 PM) *
i do think so.
this storm is now finished for my area. its over.

Perhaps you should post surface temps when precip is actually falling. (By the way surface temps do not determine when it can snow) smile.gif

Here are surface temps when precip is actually falling in those areas. (and they are falling fast) New Jersey and Pennsylvania will do just fine. Your area does not do as well due to a lack of QPF.

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Dec 31 2013, 04:19 PM
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USCG AST
post Dec 31 2013, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 31 2013, 04:04 PM) *
Just a reminder of the surface temps we're dealing with once those winds turn northerly and the tightening pressure gradient leads to strong winds which aid in strong CAA and rapidly drain the frigid Canadian temps into the region... if anything I'm concerned with flash freezing for the Mid Atlantic where temps crash from the 30s/40s into the 10s.


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Hey burbs!


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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 31 2013, 04:19 PM
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NAM is 16-18" for Cape Cod, MA with ratios taken into account.
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gloryboy1417
post Dec 31 2013, 04:21 PM
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Folks your not helping we are in Zero Tolerance Mode, if you reply to offenders instead of reporting you can be warned too.
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RochesterSnow
post Dec 31 2013, 04:19 PM
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NWS Buffalo is playing their hand tight, they keep saying that with the flip-flopping models and general inconsistency it's too early still to 'call' anything. Given the recent observations made by many others in this thread further illustrates the point.

Pretty much everyone will get snow, but how much and where is still way early.


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norr'easter
post Dec 31 2013, 04:30 PM
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Is the next Euro run at midnight??
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Astella2
post Dec 31 2013, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(norr'easter @ Dec 31 2013, 04:30 PM) *
Is the next Euro run at midnight??

Around 1 AM , yes


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DomNH
post Dec 31 2013, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(norr'easter @ Dec 31 2013, 04:30 PM) *
Is the next Euro run at midnight??

1AM-ish.


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jacksonjeff
post Dec 31 2013, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(norr'easter @ Dec 31 2013, 04:30 PM) *
Is the next Euro run at midnight??

Around 1am
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ctdryslot
post Dec 31 2013, 04:34 PM
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1am...
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norr'easter
post Dec 31 2013, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(Astella2 @ Dec 31 2013, 04:33 PM) *
Around 1 AM , yes

Thank you wink.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 31 2013, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Dec 31 2013, 04:18 PM) *
Hey burbs!

Hey... seems like a decent storm for Long Island, first one with mostly snow this season if I remember correctly. I don't like to use the term "blizzard" unless the criteria is actually met, which as we know is wind-based rather than snow total-based, although this one could get close in LI and SNE with sustained winds likely up to 25-30 mph with even higher gusts as the snow falls with temps crashing into the 20s and 10s. Upton's inclusion of "blowing snow" into the forecast is a good move IMO, even if their totals are too high which I still think is the case especially W of NYC.
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 31 2013, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 31 2013, 04:32 PM) *
Hey... seems like a decent storm for Long Island, first one with mostly snow this season if I remember correctly. I don't like to use the term "blizzard" unless the criteria is actually met, which as we know is wind-based rather than snow total-based, although this one could get close in LI and SNE with sustained winds likely up to 25-30 mph with even higher gusts as the snow falls with temps crashing into the 20s and 10s. Upton's inclusion of "blowing snow" into the forecast is a good move IMO, even if their totals are too high which I still think is the case especially W of NYC.


yeah I think 4-8 was a little bullish for us here in NENJ but i could see the lower end verifying if things work out..
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 31 2013, 04:38 PM
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GFS @ 36
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norr'easter
post Dec 31 2013, 04:37 PM
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Just looked outside and man is it snowing hard with a quick dusting!!!! I love winter!!!
Really need to step away till tonight see ya folks and Happy New Year All!!!!!!!!!!!!
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