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> March 19-20 MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk level: Day 2 Marginal; Forecasts and OBS
so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 08:34 PM
Post #61




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Could really use this rain over our way. I think we are still down about 8" on the year (water year that is) so far. It seems like it doesnt want to cross the apps because most of western PA and OH and NY and MI are doing well on the year.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MichelleOH
post Mar 21 2017, 12:17 AM
Post #62




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2.02" in about 16 hours in my gauge.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 12:25 AM
Post #63




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Well that was an overachieving marginal hail risk day. Once that supercell got rolling, it really didn't wanna stop.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 10:05 AM
Post #64




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Out of our region but an enhanced risk has been added across Tennessee for wind. MCS rapidly forming and there are hail producing elevated supercells in SW MO
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 11:19 AM
Post #65




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Supercells have essentially died as HRRR predicted. Squall is beginning to form in SE MO.

HRRR has a lot of cells popping ahead of the bow later today. I feel like these could be supercells with hail before they feed into the bow echo. Could be a busy day after all, even though there was a day 2 marginal risk. It's kinda funny how hard these events are to predict. Classic MCSs.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 11:26 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 11:35 AM
Post #66




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 12:19 PM) *
Supercells have essentially died as HRRR predicted. Squall is beginning to form in SE MO.

HRRR has a lot of cells popping ahead of the bow later today. I feel like these could be supercells with hail before they feed into the bow echo. Could be a busy day after all, even though there was a day 2 marginal risk. It's kinda funny how hard these events are to predict. Classic MCSs.

Hah. Yup. SPC added a 30% hail area for said cells ahead of said MCS


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Mar 21 2017, 01:53 PM
Post #67




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From: Beavercreek, OH
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Was driving on I-675 towards I-70 &Springfield and there's this nice park with some soccer fields and a play set for kids. It was a couple feet underwater but what struck me most disgustingly was the half to three quarters submerged portta-poty in the middle of the park...yea i'll be sure to never visit that park laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Mar 21 2017, 01:54 PM


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 02:47 PM
Post #68




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Up in our weather lab playing wtih GR2 analyst for the first time smile.gif
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 21 2017, 04:36 PM
Post #69




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 03:47 PM) *
Up in our weather lab playing wtih GR2 analyst for the first time smile.gif

Great storms for that, just another demonstration of this season's propensity to produce.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 05:19 PM
Post #70




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 21 2017, 05:36 PM) *
Great storms for that, just another demonstration of this season's propensity to produce.

Yeah, it was a lot of fun to use, shame it's $250. It was pretty sweet to be able to do everything they do on TWC. Next tornado event I'm gonna go up there if I'm not feeling too lazy.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 05:19 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 07:56 PM
Post #71




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Interesting sounding from Springfield, MO. Convectively overturned below 850mb, but loaded gun profile above 850mb



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 21 2017, 08:20 PM
Post #72




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From: St. Louis, Missouri
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 06:19 PM) *
Yeah, it was a lot of fun to use, shame it's $250. It was pretty sweet to be able to do everything they do on TWC. Next tornado event I'm gonna go up there if I'm not feeling too lazy.

I had GR before TWC biggrin.gif

It's great software and the license I bought carried over to new GR products as well so it's a solid investment. It makes an ideal birthday/Xmas present

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 21 2017, 08:21 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 09:35 PM
Post #73




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 21 2017, 09:20 PM) *
I had GR before TWC biggrin.gif

It's great software and the license I bought carried over to new GR products as well so it's a solid investment. It makes an ideal birthday/Xmas present

That's true. It is a good investment... certainly would ideal to become incredibly familiar with it in the field we're in. biggrin.gif With how much I'd use it, I'm certainly gonna think about the 'investment'.

We're gonna be learning and using GR2 in the radar class I'm taking, starting Thursday. It'll make waking up at 8:30 to go to class a little more tolerable.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 09:37 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 11:32 PM
Post #74




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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I'll be curious to see how many severe reports will show up in 24-36 hours. Seems a good rule of thumb is usually double the end of the day count... but can be more if enough of a widespread area



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 22 2017, 01:07 AM
Post #75




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,050
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 22 2017, 10:55 AM
Post #76




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From: St. Louis, Missouri
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 10:35 PM) *
That's true. It is a good investment... certainly would ideal to become incredibly familiar with it in the field we're in. biggrin.gif With how much I'd use it, I'm certainly gonna think about the 'investment'.

We're gonna be learning and using GR2 in the radar class I'm taking, starting Thursday. It'll make waking up at 8:30 to go to class a little more tolerable.

Never. laugh.gif

The volume rendering is a truly phenomenal learning opportunity. If there's a well-formed supercell passing ~50 miles from a radar site those renderings should help connect the conceptual dots in your head.

I've spent many nights waiting for the next volume scan. Unfortunately, the SAILs radar implementation reduced the volume scan frequency, for good reasons, but still less pretty pictures in GR. unsure.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 22 2017, 02:00 PM
Post #77




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From: St. Louis, Missouri
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The 1-min satellite loop of storms in northern Georgia yesterday.

It will take a while to load, but it is certainly worthwhile!!! Wow, just wow

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...000_georgia.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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