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> January 31- February 1 West (CA) Winter Storm, Forecasts & OBS
Jet Developer
post Jan 29 2016, 08:47 PM
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A storm this weekend should put an end to a long Southern California dry period. Unfortunately it looks like we'll have more dry weather after that. Time is running out for this strong El Nino to perform.

Anyway, here's the latest forecast discussion from NWS San Diego.

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
204 PM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE
INLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
BRINGING COOLING...STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE WEST COAST CREATING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED WET...ZONAL
FLOW OVER NORTHERN CA/OREGON...AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SW CA. PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOPS WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW...AND CREATE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FT.

A DEEPER...MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW HEAVIER PRECIP BEGINNING IN
NORTHERN AREAS MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RISE TO JUST ABOVE ONE INCH...AND DEVELOP PRECIP TO THE SE
THROUGH SUN EVENING. H850 WINDS AROUND 50 KT MAY CREATE GUSTY
WINDS EVEN ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS AS THE FRONT PASSES.
WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...AND 60 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST.
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE DESERTS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS THE FRONT SLIDES SE.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP (IN) LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON...
DESERTS.........0.25 TO 0.50
COAST/VALLEYS...0.50 TO 1.00
MOUNTAINS.......1.50 TO 2.50...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 8000 FT SAT EVENING...LOWER TO
7000 FT SUNDAY MORNING...6000 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 3500 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL (IN) LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON...
3500 TO 4000 FT...TRACE TO 1
4000 TO 5000 FT...2 TO 5
5000 TO 6000 FT...3 TO 10
6000 TO 7000 FT...8 TO 16
ABOVE 7000 FT.....10 TO 20

LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEG F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP SHOULD END
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND FOR THE COAST/VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


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andrew95
post Jan 30 2016, 12:34 AM
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el nino?

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Beck
post Jan 30 2016, 07:53 AM
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^ laugh.gif

Yes time is running out. For this water year to even bring average rainfall now, at least either February or March will have to bring extraordinary rainfall.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Dave_H
post Jan 30 2016, 01:20 PM
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Hoping for a miracle.
I also think I need a rain gauge that can measure less than a hundredth of an inch.
I'm going to wax my car and leave all my windows open.

Dave
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weathercrossing
post Jan 30 2016, 04:10 PM
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Total rain/snow ending Monday morning shows LA getting a good shot of rain on Sunday. The San Bernardino mountains may get over a foot of snow.



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Jet Developer
post Jan 30 2016, 06:46 PM
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Steady light rain here for about an hour and getting heavier. Pretty amazing considering the only moisture source is a deepening marine layer. However, in the last couple of years we've had marine layer events with more rain than lame winter cold fronts.


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Beck
post Jan 31 2016, 04:16 AM
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Yeah it's been sprinkling here since about 6 PM, turning to steady drizzle after 11 PM (enough to wet the ground). Still not measurable, though.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Jan 31 2016, 11:58 AM
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We are getting some pretty good rain here now, even though a lot of it does not seem to be deleted by the radar.


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Beck
post Jan 31 2016, 01:08 PM
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Getting some unusually strong winds here this morning, along with the rain.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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LUCC
post Jan 31 2016, 02:14 PM
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Southern CA looks to be getting some heavy rains, watching the golf tournament in San Diego and it's really windy and rainy.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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RobB
post Jan 31 2016, 02:21 PM
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Current radar shot:


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Jet Developer
post Jan 31 2016, 03:42 PM
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Looks like some nice stuff in Central Valley, which means Tule fog after the system moves out. Down here we are having light to moderate rain.


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Beck
post Jan 31 2016, 04:51 PM
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Crazy windy here, 0.48" so far.

Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 6.71" (-0.38")
Normal to-date precipitation: 7.09"
Season began July 1st, 2015.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2015-2016: 5.24"
Last updated on January 27th, 2015.


Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Jan 31 2016, 05:50 PM
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Only 0.41" so far here and rain has pretty much stopped. Have to hope there will be some convective showers yet.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Jan 31 2016, 05:51 PM


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FrostFuzz
post Jan 31 2016, 07:25 PM
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This storm was a major bust up here. Only got .15" out of it. I was thinking forecasts were on the high side but still thought I could get half an inch or so.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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Jet Developer
post Feb 9 2016, 09:20 PM
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California went off the first page as El Nino continues to hibernate. Quite an amazing February heat wave, however.


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