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> March 23-24 Plains Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Days 4-8 Possible: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Today, 10:28 AM
Post #101




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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid Missouri Valley and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231516Z - 231645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of small/near-severe hail may be possible
through the early afternoon hours across the mid Missouri Valley and
extending northeast. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...On the nose of a south/southwesterly 850-700 mb jet,
thunderstorms have organized across far northeastern Nebraska,
southeastern South Dakota, and northwestern Iowa. This elevated
activity should persist and evolve east/northeastward over the next
few hours, in tandem with warm advection related to the low-level
jet. Upstream 12Z soundings at OAX/LBF sampled steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates on the order of 8 deg C/km. While this is associated
with dry mid-level air that may enhance dry-air entrainment in new
updrafts, those that can sustain themselves will be aided by 30-35
kts of effective shear. As such, some threat for small to
brief/marginally severe hail will exist with these cells as they
develop east/northeast in conjunction with elevated instability.

..Picca/Hart.. 03/23/2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 11:41 AM
Post #102




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HRRR had a long-track discrete supercell in Nebraska later but now it's lost it and has a non-event with a bunch of 30-45 dBZ rain.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Stannum
post Today, 11:54 AM
Post #103




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 23 2017, 11:41 AM) *
HRRR had a long-track discrete supercell in Nebraska later but now it's lost it and has a non-event with a bunch of 30-45 dBZ rain.


Boo, was going to drive out to I-80 after I get off work. Maybe it'll come back with the next HRRR run.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:02 PM
Post #104




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Nice gravity waves across the Plains.



Loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Kansas...amp;overDim=100


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 01:22 PM
Post #105




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"The supercell", which I will now affectionately call it now, is back on HRRR.








This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 01:23 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:14 PM
Post #106




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,777
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Still have it



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:51 PM
Post #107




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,777
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Bit of a cap



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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