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> Winter Storm January 23rd-26th, GFS, CMC, and EURO on board with mix bag, details to be ironed out
travis3000
post Jan 16 2017, 07:05 PM
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From: Alliston,Ontario
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I'm creating a thread on this storm, as all the models are showing something for next week. Looks to move into SW Ontario on the 23rd and make its way east, the effects continuing to be felt into the 25th and 26th out east.

Models have been dancing around with tracks, and precipitation types.

Here's the 12z CMC model:

Jan 23rd morning
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 158.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 172.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png ( 180.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


Heavy snow in Eastern Ontario by this point moving into Southern QB.
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png ( 181.08K ) Number of downloads: 0



Here's the 18z GFS run from tonight


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 162.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 181.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 175.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png ( 170.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


As you can see this run of the GFS isn't as bullish for big snowfall out east, but potential remains.

Mostly rain for Southern Ontario at this point but potential is there for some mixtures especially over higher terrain.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 16 2017, 07:09 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 16 2017, 09:15 PM
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This one has my attention. I think somebody might get a good dumping of wet snow based on how strong the LP has been looking on a couple of the models.
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travis3000
post Jan 17 2017, 10:49 AM
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00z GFS very warm with rain everywhere even up in Timmins, ON

00z Jan 24th
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 182.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


12z Jan 24th
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 186.37K ) Number of downloads: 0


00z Jan 25th
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 170.98K ) Number of downloads: 2


18z Jan 26th...2nd Disturbance Moves In
Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png ( 169.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 17 2017, 11:12 AM
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00z Canadian wants to keep it more interesting


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.png ( 180.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png ( 177.22K ) Number of downloads: 1


A nice snowstorm for Cornwall to Montreal. Decent accumulation for Ottawa too

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 172.09K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 17 2017, 11:14 AM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 17 2017, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 17 2017, 10:49 AM) *
[b]00z GFS very warm with rain everywhere even up in Timmins, ON

Timmins, LOL, keep going even further north on that 12z OP GFS run; rain well up into James Bay, and Northern Quebec into Iqaluit tongue.gif Wonder what the Euro is saying? Will see if the GEM holds it's ground...
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 17 2017, 04:55 PM
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Here is the GFS 12z ensemble view. Most members are west and going north, but a few have a similar view to the GEM
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JJ Snowlover
post Jan 18 2017, 10:15 AM
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Todays OP GFS shows another freezing rain storm for parts of central and eastern ON (sorry can't post pics right now)

Mike, Can you tell us what the euro shows?
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snowgeek93
post Jan 18 2017, 11:10 AM
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For our sake I hope it's just rain here. Don't need any more icing issues like yesterday morning.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 18 2017, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Jan 18 2017, 10:15 AM) *
Todays OP GFS shows another freezing rain storm for parts of central and eastern ON (sorry can't post pics right now)

Mike, Can you tell us what the euro shows?


I don't think bigmt posts in the storm threads anymore which is really too bad.

The euro was very similar to the GFS.



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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 18 2017, 11:31 AM
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Interesting run of the 12z GFS. Looks more like the 00z GEM. LPC is off the coast but precip shield is into ON. Has snow/sleet for ON this run.









This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 18 2017, 11:32 AM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 18 2017, 11:48 AM
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12z GEM also has the low off the east coast. Precip doesn't make it to ON but it's cold enough for snow to the east. Interesting 12z runs so far.







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travis3000
post Jan 18 2017, 12:24 PM
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Totally different then yesterdays runs, 12z GFS is now a mess across Southern/Eastern Ontario with light snow, freezing rain and ice pellets.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png ( 176.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png ( 180.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png ( 183.85K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png ( 182.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 166.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 18 2017, 12:27 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 18 2017, 12:28 PM
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CMC suppresses the storm to the south with nothing in Ontario really but then brings a 2nd low for a big snowstorm across Southern Ontario on the 26th. Still big disagreements here.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 18 2017, 12:29 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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elder05
post Jan 18 2017, 01:37 PM
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one thing for sure is all three CMC/GFS/ECMWF have all come in colder on this 12z suite. a good step!


--------------------
follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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elder05
post Jan 18 2017, 01:46 PM
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fwiw, ECMWF 12Z run today now coming in with a decent snowfall for a good chunk of southern ON.
6+ inches London through Niagara and around the golden horseshoe. bullseye Hamilton north to Barrie 10+inches


--------------------
follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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plowguy
post Jan 18 2017, 02:01 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Jan 18 2017, 01:46 PM) *
fwiw, ECMWF 12Z run today now coming in with a decent snowfall for a good chunk of southern ON.
6+ inches London through Niagara and around the golden horseshoe. bullseye Hamilton north to Barrie 10+inches


Yikes! So much for the warm up!
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MrMusic
post Jan 18 2017, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Jan 18 2017, 01:46 PM) *
fwiw, ECMWF 12Z run today now coming in with a decent snowfall for a good chunk of southern ON.
6+ inches London through Niagara and around the golden horseshoe. bullseye Hamilton north to Barrie 10+inches


I will not bite, I will not bite, I will not bite.... (by the weekend I'll take a huge bite tho!)


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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elder05
post Jan 18 2017, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Jan 18 2017, 02:02 PM) *
I will not bite, I will not bite, I will not bite.... (by the weekend I'll take a huge bite tho!)

bite or not, pretty drastic modeled changes taking place for this time period.


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follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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MrMusic
post Jan 18 2017, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Jan 18 2017, 02:05 PM) *
bite or not, pretty drastic modeled changes taking place for this time period.

Absolutely. Good to see!! Thx for the updates.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Jan 18 2017, 02:34 PM
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Just took a look at the CMC ensembles, GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles.
All show a low tracking through PA with plenty of moisture. Unfortunately all 3 also show very mild temps even up here on the NW side of the low with strong ENE winds. Hopefully some cold air will slide down into this storm if in fact this track pans out. Would be our first good track of the season, now just need the cold air as some of the OP runs are showing.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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