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> September 1-3, 2017 MidAtl/NE Rain event, Harvey's last gasp
Undertakerson
post Sep 1 2017, 04:12 PM
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I'll change the topic description of mods want me to. Figured I'd keep this discussion separate from the "never ending" cool down thread laugh.gif

I guess there's a big storm happening elsewhere - that there's not already a thread for this. Or, maybe we've just had enough of Ol' Harv

Rain sandwich


Attached Image


Disco from CTP

Virga and CAD all in a summer time discussion? ohmy.gif tongue.gif

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure is keeping most of the region dry, while clouds
from what was once Harvey continue to stream into and thicken
over the region.

My far SWRN zones are seeing the first chance of some light rain
as has been hinted at by the HRRR since yesterday. The near
term CAMs keep this light rain confined to the border counties
for much if not all of the overnight
so I only went for a slow
increase in the chances for some light rain or drizzle spreading
NE later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Saturday looks cloudy cool (chilly?) and damp. Still a big
question of how much it will rain with an initially very dry
airmass in place.
I am thinking that the first part of the day
will favor cloudy and cool conditions with perhaps some periods
of light rain or a misty drizzle. The deeper we get into the day
the better will be the chances for rain.

I did undercut model blended high temps by several degrees. This
looks like a classic warm season cold air damming scenario.
With a strong high off to our north and east and an approaching
low from the SW, the guidance shows a strong low level northerly
component to the ageostrophic flow which will help keep us
anomalously cool for the early days of September.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Wet start to holiday weekend followed by improving/rain-free
conditions Sunday into Monday (Labor Day)
*No significant flooding impacts expected from the remnants of
Harvey


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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phillyfan
post Sep 1 2017, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 1 2017, 05:12 PM) *
I'll change the topic description of mods want me to. Figured I'd keep this discussion separate from the "never ending" cool down thread laugh.gif

I guess there's a big storm happening elsewhere - that there's not already a thread for this. Or, maybe we've just had enough of Ol' Harv

Rain sandwich


Attached Image


Disco from CTP

Virga and CAD all in a summer time discussion? ohmy.gif tongue.gif
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

May need another thread for Thursday then....


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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stretchct
post Sep 1 2017, 08:03 PM
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weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

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First measurable
First flakes
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Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
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2012-2013 64.5"
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2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 2 2017, 03:49 AM
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Was impressed with this a couple days ago but now it is looking like some scattered showers and maybe, maybe a thunderstorm to role through from midday to evening. Then it seems as though the remnants of harvey start to interact with the LP trying to form off the coast causing a blossoming of precip probably more confined to the coastal region.

Oh well curious what happens in the next week PRE type event could be a real threat and then from there is well for now anyones guess.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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yamvmax
post Sep 2 2017, 06:11 AM
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Seems like that Big ole H is gonna break up alot of the rain headed north. I could squeak out another decent day today here on LI.

This post has been edited by yamvmax: Sep 2 2017, 06:14 AM
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phillyfan
post Sep 2 2017, 01:33 PM
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Raining pretty steady here now and not even at 60 currently. Blah...


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3
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MD Blue Ridge
post Sep 2 2017, 05:06 PM
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Hasn't been much rain. But impressive fog, as usual for mby. 52F currently but I don't think we'll get much cooler through the night.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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PhillySnowLover
post Sep 2 2017, 06:04 PM
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Just got a weather station so very excited about that. Anyways my rain gauge says .20 inches of rain so far. Current temp is 58 F.
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Undertakerson
post Sep 3 2017, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Sep 2 2017, 06:06 PM) *
Hasn't been much rain. But impressive fog, as usual for mby. 52F currently but I don't think we'll get much cooler through the night.



QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Sep 2 2017, 07:04 PM) *
Just got a weather station so very excited about that. Anyways my rain gauge says .20 inches of rain so far. Current temp is 58 F.

For as many hours as is has "rained", I spy less than 0.4" in the measuring instruments for IMBY.
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yamvmax
post Sep 3 2017, 06:15 AM
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Got about .10 of rain total on LI. Not much left looking at the radar. Hoping to see the sun and a warmup this afternoon. Enjoy the Holiday everyone!

This post has been edited by yamvmax: Sep 3 2017, 06:15 AM
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STEVE392
post Sep 3 2017, 01:45 PM
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had some nice steady heavy rainfall throughout the night. Had another quick shot of heavy rains around 11am
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JDClapper
post Sep 3 2017, 08:56 PM
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Ended up with 0.61" here. A decent soak, but we've had enough of that this summer (3rd wettest) .. time to dry up and enjoy crunchy, colorful leaves. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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NorEaster07
post Sep 3 2017, 09:20 PM
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1.67" 8pm yesterday to this afternoon.
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