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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Weekend ruination system now up to 50% CH in the 5 day outlook


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328920 · Replies: · Views: 1,029

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328883 · Replies: · Views: 1,029

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 20 2018, 08:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Ol' Sol is playing peak a boo this morning - offering my region the first such glimpse in a bit over a week.

Seems like "self destruct" sunshine - any that does make it to the surface, helps create a great enough temp contrast to cause clouds to form in rapid fashion. Since these clouds would be entirely low level, without any trigger, they probably don't rain.

A bit later, if the contrast blends at just the right amount, there would be some mid-level support available to cause showers. (in my region)

Only slight drying, but we'll take it all the same.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328732 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 19 2018, 08:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(rtcemc @ May 19 2018, 09:38 AM) *
Just a 10 here dry.gif Will give me time to set up the coke IV that I am going to mainline into my arm tonight, to give me the energy to squeeze in a month's worth of outdoor projects like double cutting the grass, draining and vacuuming the pool, tilling the garden, and mulching the property in one day. Double cutting the grass is particularly indulging... as indulging as watching a rerun of bad movie that you didn't want to see the first time. Oh yea, and my one year old $500 driver snapped yesterday in the middle of the round. Will take months of therapy to climb out of this depressing abyss ohmy.gif ohmy.gif

sad.gif

Well, I have yet another funeral to attend today, if that helps to lend any perspective. sad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328669 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 19 2018, 07:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328656 · Replies: · Views: 2,039

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 19 2018, 07:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
Latest guidance still offers very diverse possibilities for low
pressure that may track out of the northwestern Caribbean. GEFS
members have tended to be on the fast/eastern side of the spread
while CMC runs have also been fairly progressive but on the
western side of the envelope. Combined uncertainties including
degree/depth of development determining what level of steering
flow will have greatest influence at a particular time, along with
evolution/position of forecast upper troughing over the southern
U.S./Gulf of Mexico, lead to continued very low confidence for
details of this feature.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328655 · Replies: · Views: 2,039

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 19 2018, 06:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Deeep tap and fetch

Attached Image


Such a neat look at the ULL that is the "left" aspect of this One-Two Punch - and the influence of the Atl ridge. It's even better when you view in motion.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328654 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 19 2018, 05:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(risingriver @ May 19 2018, 03:21 AM) *
Never seen this one before.

Wow - that' really sound advice, but I've never seen that either. Not that I can recall anyway.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328649 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 18 2018, 05:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Oh, how I long for the days when folks were a sayin' - we don't get Spring anymore.

That was, what? Two weeks ago, if that?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328635 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 18 2018, 03:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(yamvmax @ May 18 2018, 03:56 PM) *
Not sure if a new thread is necessary. Next week there is a little break, then this appears to come back on memorial weekend and continue for another week. This really is getting ridiculous.

Reminds me of 1989 - except that this year featured heat to start, before the endless rain. That year, IIRC, it rained on like 9 straight weekends from April to June, in my neck of the woods. 21 of the 31days in May had, at least some, rain

Edit - as I mentioned in the Spring thread, the OFM guidance does not look like any real "warmth/summer" for the foreseeable future (first week of June). sad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328630 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 18 2018, 03:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Good thing this is not a winter storm - the cut off would have the cliff jumpers coming out in droves. laugh.gif laugh.gif

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Attached Image


North of the PA Turnpike - especially above I-80, may wonder what all the buzz was about.

CTP

.
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Slow northward propagation of rain area continues at mid
afternoon
with showers poised to move into the central and West
Central Mountains between 3pm and 5 pm this afternoon. This
thanks to deeper moisture finally lifting back to the north
after a 12-24 hour period of blocking and dry air entrainment
from ENE llvl flow around large Quebec sfc high.

Rich subtropical moisture increases over central and south
central PA increases rainfall efficiency and bringing areas of
moderate to heavy rain into those areas by late evening and
continuing into Saturday morning. While amounts have been
cut back from the guidance of 24 to 48 hours ago, local 2"+
amounts would lead to flooding over my southern tier and
therefore the Flood Watch is being allowed to stand. Overall
amounts changed little from previous package with 1-2" indicated
for most of the southeast 1/4 to 1/3 of my area. Some will
approach or exceed 2" by Saturday afternoon.
Farther north,
rainfall of an inch or more is likely across portions of
central and eastern PA overnight tonight through early Sat, but
the majority of this area will see generally between 0.50 and
0.75 of an inch
. Min temps tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Sat will start out quite wet as southerly 850 mb jet and 1.5"
to 1.8" PW lift over central and eastern areas producing the
steadiest and heaviest rainfall of the event
. The 850 mb jet
strengthens as it lifts into upstate NY by Saturday afternoon,
leaving scattered to numerous showers in its wake but a gradual
decrease in coverage and intensity. Showers will persist well
into Saturday evening especially over the west which will be
under the influence of larger scale lift from the approaching
upper trof. With widespread overcast conditions and showers,
highs will range through the 60s throughout.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328629 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 18 2018, 11:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(stretchct @ May 18 2018, 10:32 AM) *
Oh thats where everyone is.

edit: oh wait, its just you. Sigh.

laugh.gif

Me and MJ that is. We see it developing in the W Caribbean, not the GOM - that's just where it goes after it's already a "thing".

Oh well, (sigh)
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328613 · Replies: · Views: 2,709

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 18 2018, 05:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Not trying to show verbatim solutions here, but the connection to the ITCZ is both evident and a bit ominous,

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2328578 · Replies: · Views: 73,103

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 17 2018, 06:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2018, 01:17 PM) *
#1. Enough with the rainy days. My god it's like everyday now. (6 of last 7 days)

#2. Update: Danbury, CT temps this spring.

You still don't need 2 hands to count the number of full clear sunny days with temps staying in the 60s.

[attachment=356087:temps20.jpg]
Also note the max temps past 6 days.
68
56
53
71
85
63

#Swings

OFM signal (primarily, the BSR) doesn't really hold out much hope for any drastic changes - perhaps right up until astronomical summer

What SER? Maybe some SWF can keep temps "up" but long stretches of fair weather, in most of the East, seem unlikely odds ATTM.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-06-June.htm
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2328559 · Replies: · Views: 73,103

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 17 2018, 11:56 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


We're discussing this storm in the Caribbean thread, that is where it starts from. Not that doing so here is wrong, per se, it's just a bit disconnected.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328521 · Replies: · Views: 2,709

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 17 2018, 05:52 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


E.g. - supporting guidance via the BSR

Attached Image


Using 6z GFS as starting point/ good idea of where the system enters the US region from the South, the BSR has it come up the EC and then retrograde, as seen in the image.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-05-May.htm
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328480 · Replies: · Views: 2,039

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 17 2018, 05:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Regardless of the actual eventuality, I'm not "liking" the look of a crawler system moving up from the S while a potent front crosses the MS Vly region.

Something about the extrapolated plotting of both features, has a dark foreboding possibility.

Given that we, in the east, are having a small scale of that even as I type this - one might imagine this becomes, somewhat of a pattern.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328479 · Replies: · Views: 2,039

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 17 2018, 05:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 17 2018, 05:07 AM) *
ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all still showing a western Caribbean into the GOMEX system.

Couple ensembles of the GFS suggest a "hook back into coast"/retrograde scenario - ala Agnes. Probably not what will play out but should monitor if that signal grows or fades.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2328478 · Replies: · Views: 2,039

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 16 2018, 03:55 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


sad.gif

Attached Image




Attached Image


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328413 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 06:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Now we wait for the super soaker at the end of the week - especially Friday.

The soaking so far, does not bode well for the hydro outlooks. GFS is ranging from 4-6" QPF over the duration (18z run) for much of PA/MD/VA/NJ/DE etc.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328365 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 06:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328363 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 03:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Local met just mentioned the "slowing" I thought I was seeing. Copious amounts of rain in those training storms.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328306 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 03:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


There's a huge hail signal by York Springs PA ATTM. Biggest on the map, actually.

http://www.lightningmaps.org/#x=-77.1381;m...dl=2;dc=0;ra=1;

I still think Lancaster County region is "in for it" - perhaps as far s/e as Coatesville
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328304 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 03:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


Now got a report of trees into the buildings down by work. sad.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328302 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

Undertakerson
Posted on: May 15 2018, 03:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 32,641
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746


QUOTE
Event:
Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
Northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
Northwestern Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Southwestern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 500 PM EDT.

* At 426 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Shoemakersville, or 11 miles north of Reading,
moving east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Reading, Laureldale and Lenhartsville around 430 PM EDT.
Fleetwood around 435 PM EDT.
Kutztown, Topton and Lyons around 440 PM EDT.
Bechtelsville around 445 PM EDT.
Bally, Zionsville and Ancient Oaks around 450 PM EDT.
East Greenville, Green Lane and Geryville around 455 PM EDT.
Quakertown around 500 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Harleysville, Coopersburg, Alburtis, Boyertown, Coplay, Fountain
Hill, Fullerton, Hokendauqua, Red Hill and Macungie.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328296 · Replies: · Views: 20,610

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