Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

1498 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 06:11 PM) *
First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.


Welcome to the forum! Looking forward to your contributions! Great group of guys here in the severe threads to learn from.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326992 · Replies: · Views: 9,496

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 12:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 16 2018, 01:52 PM) *
My first time mentioning the possibility for a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the April 10-12 timeframe was back on March 25, a full 2 weeks and 4 or 5 days before the April 13-15 tornado outbreak. It was a slam dunk of signs pointing to this event... the MJO, SOI, BSR, EAR, and RRWT all supported a big system pushing through in the same time frame.

My wording was pretty strong regarding the tornado potential, which I believe was justified, but when it came to the details of the event, it was pretty underwhelming due to VBV (veer-back-veer, in which a layer of the atmosphere has winds turning clockwise with height which destroys rotating updrafts, thus discouraging supercells and tornadoes). That was just one of the things that could go wrong when using organic signals to forecast a system well in advance, so that was unfortunate for the forecast. Still though, there've been 52 tornado reports over the 3 day span, and with NWS offices still out there surveying damage, that number will likely increase further.

Over the 3 days, there were 178 tornado warnings and 467 severe thunderstorm warnings, and somewhere around 750 reports of severe weather.



Great job! Just remember my favorite catch phrase!
QUOTE
We nail the pattern, specifics come later!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326769 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 10:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Shipmate in Ronkonhoma reported ~4" at 8:35am.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324196 · Replies: · Views: 44,886

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 29 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


We have seen on numerous occasions a pump fake in regards to the +PNA. Apply my rule for reading the telly graphics...

QUOTE
Forecast high, verification low. Forecast low, verification high


Euro


GFS

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323355 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 09:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Add the latest GWO forecast drop to supporting severe weather.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323344 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Gary Lezak finally got the LRC, or Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, published. Have a gander.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323317 · Replies: · Views: 516,707

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 11:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


CPC temp hazards...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323308 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 09:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 28 2018, 08:23 AM) *
Yeah, NOAA might want to rethink this...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ead14/index.php

All that orange shading north of the Mason-Dixon line needs to be replaced with blue, asap.


They usually send out an update on the first of the month.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323297 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 09:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 26 2018, 12:09 PM) *
Great thread & read under this.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/978068764997685250

[attachment=354546:tweet21.jpg]
Ryan: The physical mechanisms put forth in this Washington Post article are hand "wavy" but involve changes to the jet stream based upon a warm Arctic. I'm leaning toward the -NAO & Strat Warming as more plausible explanation.

Judah: Consistent with our recent paper. The link between a warm Arctic and severe winter weather is strongest when Arctic warmth leads by days to weeks.

Ryan: So far in my data analysis and evaluation of your recent paper & others, I'm hypothesizing that the positive Arctic T anomalies are a proxy for midlatitude pattern shifts driven by tropical forcing e.g. upper-level Rossby wave dispersion. More plausible than other direction.

Judah: I would say that your opinion is closer to the climate community consensus than my own ideas. But I remain steadfast that this idea of the tropics as the sole/dominant driver of our weather is neither supported by the observations or the models.

Ryan: Hmmm, that would completely discount the role of the Pacific in our weather including the El Nino teleconnections manifested via the PNA. When discussing modulation of midlat storm tracks, the physical mechanisms are well established e.g. PNA, MJO.

Judah: And BTW you listed the sudden stratospheric warming, -NAO as the reasons for the nor'easters. Those are both been shown to be forced by El Nino, a little inconvenient given that we had a La Nina this winter and possibly the most extreme SSW.

Ryan: I meant El Nino as a catch all for tropical convective forcing, better to say ENSO. I'm just struggling to understand how that relative surface warmth in the Arctic physically modulated East Coast cyclogenesis.
Upper level forcing e.g. SSW makes more sense.

Jase: The reanalysis maps for the first 22 days or so of March show all the hallmarks of -NAO... strong positive 500 mb Z/MSLP anomalies over Greenland indicative of the blocking high, weak polar jet over N Atlantic. 850 T anomaly bullseye just south of Greenland

Ryan: Exactly. Synopticians are worth keeping around. :-)

Ian: It takes time for the effects of a SSW event/PV disruption to propagate down from the stratosphere to troposphere. Sometimes a few weeks. At least thatís how I understand it as a non-MET.


That was classic! I think Cohen was so offended that he said people believe that the tropics are the ONLY impact for our weather when the majority of the community doesn't feel that way.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323223 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323186 · Replies: · Views: 1,410

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:29 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323185 · Replies: · Views: 10,081

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323184 · Replies: · Views: 44,886

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 26 2018, 11:28 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


FYI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2323183 · Replies: · Views: 18,483

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 25 2018, 09:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 25 2018, 09:13 PM) *
Nice. And here's the corresponding 500mb heights.



The SOI has been highly variable over the past 2 weeks which implies unsettled weather 20 days from the date.



~43pt drop over 3 days in the same time line as the BSR...look out.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323163 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 23 2018, 01:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(colonel717 @ Mar 23 2018, 10:12 AM) *
Did someone say they wanted onion snow.... These are EURO members from the 3rd, 4th, 5th...Yea I know not likely to happen... Just some fun for spring..

[attachment=354418:Snor_3rd.png]
[attachment=354419:Snow_4th.png]
[attachment=354420:Snow_5th.png]


Nobody uses snowdepth charts. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322813 · Replies: · Views: 44,886

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 01:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 22 2018, 11:38 AM) *
Not a huge believer in the NAO for individual storms, but here it is anyway. I'm easing my way from tracking withdrawal....
[attachment=354355:4_1_telies.PNG]

More interestingly, we all know what kind of March we just had. This is evidence that a -NAO does matter patternwise. No -NAO the whole Dec-Feb period and the storms just rushed out. March comes and 4 noreasters.
[attachment=354356:NAO_march.PNG]
[attachment=354357:pos_nao_to_march.PNG]


I believe that the -NAO misnomer is because people, like DT & others, say unless a -NAO is evident you can't have a decent snowfall. Heck...SD said winter was over based on the -NAO earlier this month!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322592 · Replies: · Views: 18,483

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 12:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 22 2018, 12:00 PM) *
Not in a million years. laugh.gif


According to snowbal, it's done. What's DT say?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322570 · Replies: · Views: 18,483

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 09:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Mar 22 2018, 09:39 AM) *
So in terms of recapping this one, seems like generally NYC was 8-12 with this with some parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island over a foot. LI got creamed with mostly over a foot especially in Suffolk County which is making a run at Orange Countys highlands for the new snow capital of the tri state area. CNJ and NNJ got off to a slow start but ended up hit hard last night and sounds like a general 6-10 with locally higher amounts there. Southern Westchester generally seems like 6-10. Didn't start snowing for many in the HV until last night but sounds like at least 3 inches up to around I84. Overall Uptons bullish totals came close to panning out. Seems CT was the one area in the tri state that underperformed a lot as the heavy bands over LI didn't really push into CT as they usually do.


What's funny is the snow depth charts showed that! But... NOBODY uses them!! wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322511 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 09:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 22 2018, 08:56 AM) *
Well at least he's cool about it. I asked him which run cause I saw his periscope on the Euro 500mb system it was going to clobber NW of NYC through CT up to 84.
[attachment=354332:bernie_explains.PNG]


I agree... anyone else would have gotten defensive.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322509 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 09:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 22 2018, 09:05 AM) *
JD, how much did your ship mate end up with in Ronkonkoma? Somebody posted at one point they got 5" in an hour.


He estimated between 11"-13". I gave him shade for not getting official measurement. laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322497 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stretchct @ Mar 22 2018, 06:50 AM) *
Funny. I remember him riding the euro in one of his periscopes. Saying how HV, NNJ and CT were the targets due to where the cyclonic curvature of the UL was. GFS was too far south.


EXACTLY! Which makes you scratch your head even more regarding the tweet!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322442 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 06:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 22 2018, 05:19 AM) *


Bernie:: "The upper low location shown by Euro to be farther E and S (compared to NAM and GFS) was indeed correct. As a result, for once, southern New England missed out.."

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/976724143805779970


I hate broad statements like this! Which exact model run of the euro is he talking about?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322424 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 22 2018, 12:38 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 22 2018, 12:35 AM) *
14" in 4hrs in Islip.
4" in 18hrs here.


Some insane rates for sure!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322384 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 21 2018, 11:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2018, 08:42 PM) *
Using CFS for 12-17 day forecast laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

I guess I should expect nothing less from a company whose lead forecaster is JB.


If it showed warm, it would be thrown out.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2322365 · Replies: · Views: 56,866

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 21 2018, 10:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,564
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Mar 21 2018, 10:19 PM) *
I'm right next door to Islip and I can confirm those rates are valid, its a total whiteout here since about 6:30 pm, just incredible. I have 3 foot drifts against my garage door.


Makes up for the last storm! wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2322334 · Replies: · Views: 326,705

1498 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 

New Posts  New Replies
No New Posts  No New Replies
Hot topic  Hot Topic (New)
No new  Hot Topic (No New)
Poll  Poll (New)
No new votes  Poll (No New)
Closed  Locked Topic
Moved  Moved Topic
 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 26th April 2018 - 06:39 AM