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> May 5 -15 2017 MidAtl/NE Cool (cold) spell, Observations
Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 11:45 AM
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With the passing of last night's storms, the region (esp. the MidAtl) will fall into an extended period of below seasonal average - outright chilly and at times cold. This probably lasts to near mid-month as indicated by the BSR and CPC guidance (not to mention the LR GFS).

I don't have time to post images, but figured I might as well start thread (but come on now, I can't start them ALL - or can I? laugh.gif )

Of course, we have the late week system to get to first, so I'll use that as the start date.

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021520
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that produced Monday`s line of strong to severe
thunderstorms was nearing the New Jersey coast this morning. A
secondary cold front at the surface and aloft will push east
across Central Pennsylvania today bringing some additional
showers across the northern and western mountains. Quite strong
and gusty west to southwest winds will develop for this
afternoon. Fair weather will occur Wednesday through much of
Thursday morning as an area of high pressure builds in from the
western lakes and becomes centered right over the state
Wednesday night. The next, moisture laden storm system will be
the result of a rapidly amplifying upper trough and deepening
surface low that will evolve into an anomalously strong and
nearly stationary upper low that will meander across the
Northeast U.S. over the upcoming weekend and through the first
half of next week.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 14 2017, 04:38 PM
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jdrenken
post May 2 2017, 01:27 PM
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If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif


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Eine Kleine Wett...
post May 2 2017, 02:03 PM
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Ha ha, that is absolutely right! It is quite incredible to watch this unfold....man, the weather is awesome!

QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 2 2017, 02:27 PM) *
If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif

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so_whats_happeni...
post May 2 2017, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 2 2017, 02:27 PM) *
If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif


If only lol where were these patterns in the winter?


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Millersville University


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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 03:01 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 2 2017, 02:27 PM) *
If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif

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kpk33x
post May 2 2017, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 2 2017, 02:27 PM) *
If this was the winter it would've been created 15 days ago! laugh.gif


: :lol:lol: along with hour 384 GFS

Hope you guys are not underwater in MO, saw some footage.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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goblue96
post May 2 2017, 03:42 PM
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--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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telejunkie
post May 2 2017, 04:02 PM
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Looking through mid-month....60s are looking like they'll be pretty hard to come by in this region when our average highs are in the mid-60s...if 12z GFS is to be believed, good portion of western/central & northern NYS should be seeing some white flakes fly too...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: May 2 2017, 04:03 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MD Blue Ridge
post May 2 2017, 04:14 PM
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.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Accumulating snow is likely for locations along and west of the
Allegheny Front Saturday through Sunday morning...especially for
elevations above 3000 feet.

Sub-freezing temperatures are possible along the ridge tops of the
Allegheny Highlands and Blue Ridge Mountains overnight and early
morning hours Saturday through Monday. Freeze warnings may become
necessary.

: blink.gif :blink:blink:


If we get a freeze this weekend my wife is going to flip bleep.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: May 2 2017, 04:19 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 2 2017, 05:14 PM) *
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Accumulating snow is likely for locations along and west of the
Allegheny Front Saturday through Sunday morning...especially for
elevations above 3000 feet.

Sub-freezing temperatures are possible along the ridge tops of the
Allegheny Highlands and Blue Ridge Mountains overnight and early
morning hours Saturday through Monday. Freeze warnings may become
necessary.

: blink.gif :blink:blink:
If we get a freeze this weekend my wife is going to flip bleep.

sad.gif

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Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 2 2017, 04:27 PM
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Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 04:31 PM
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CTP - on the "detail sparse" side

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Did lower minimum temperatures some Wednesday Night.

Main change was to slow down the onset of rain early Thursday,
given ridge location.

Also did up QPF amounts late Thursday into Friday, given
warm advection and dynamics. Some chance of thunderstorms,
especially across the southeast.

Added new day 7.

Cyclonic flow will dominate the region through much of the long
term period with one upper trof exiting at the start of the
period and a second arriving late week
.

A chance for a more widespread/soaking (MDT to HVY) rain is
likely on Fri, given strong dynamics and warm advection, as
secondary low forms over the area.

Some chance of thunderstorms, mainly across the southeast.
Some storms could be on the strong side
.

Did lower POPS on Monday, as the system pulls slowly away.

For day 7, superblend show some higher POPS across the north
and east, did adjust some.
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Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 04:33 PM
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SPC

QUOTE
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020838
SPC AC 020838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue May 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Through the upcoming weekend into early next week, the large-scale
mid/upper pattern will remain amplified, with a pair of closed lows
evolving over the contiguous US -- one over the Northeast and
another over the Pacific Coast. While organized, widespread severe
events appear unlikely with this pattern (precluding 15-percent
probabilities during the extended period), several localized, at
least marginally severe events appear possible through this weekend
.

...D4/Friday -- Eastern North Carolina/Virginia...
Ahead of a cold front advancing towards the coastline Friday
morning, a small corridor of modest buoyancy may favor a few strong
surface-based storms. Moderate/strong southerly low/mid-level flow
may encourage transient updraft organization, as well, supportive of
isolated stronger gusts and/or a tornado before the front moves
offshore.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 2 2017, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 2 2017, 05:25 PM) *
sad.gif

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Attached Image


Curious to see if we see any real severe weather with what now looks like the surface low going into WPA region and depending on where the warm front sets up could be some decent boomers. Maybe more of a mechanical forced squall type of setup could occur.

None the less this cool spell is not going to be fun with no sun. low 60s in the beginning of the period to upper 50's for a stretch of time and showery activity maybe even a pop up t-storm potential with cold air aloft any sun at the surface can cause convective activity to go up.


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Millersville University


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Undertakerson
post May 2 2017, 05:00 PM
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WPC Extended Discussion (in pertinent part)

QUOTE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE STRONG SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BRINGS ITS HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN
GRTLKS/NORTHEAST FRI-SAT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG ATLANTIC INFLOW
HELPING TO ENHANCE TOTALS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TO SUPPORT REFRESHINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
POCKETS OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD BE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER/NEAR NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WORTH MONITORING GIVEN ITS POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT
A BAND OF ENHANCED RAIN. FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD, THE CORE OF
COLDEST HIGHS RELATIVE TO NORMAL SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH MULTIPLE DAYS 10F OR
MORE BELOW NORMAL.

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bingobobbo
post May 2 2017, 06:58 PM
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NWS is mentioning the possibility of snow mixing in with rain showers on Sunday night. I am not expecting any accumulation, but it will be interesting to see some flakes flying around.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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rtcemc
post May 2 2017, 07:28 PM
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This is a Greek tragedy. I thought last year 2nd half April - 1st half May was real bad. Almost 2 weeks of windy, cool , spotty showers, and predominant cloudy. Friday's event looks decent but after that it just pretty much looks annoying. I don't find these patterns very cool in the winter either. They usually don't produce that much. Just depressing, without much snow. Whine over...

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NorEaster07
post May 2 2017, 08:21 PM
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GFS picking up snowflakes in the Blue Ridge mountains Sunday. Adirondacks Monday. And Berks/Greens Tuesday.



Temps at 5000' supportive of it. You rarely see below freezing temps at this level in May. Normal is +11C in Greensboro! WOW!
DC is +8C!
This is pretty darn cold airmass for May


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NorEaster07
post May 2 2017, 08:23 PM
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https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/859118015643873280

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NorEaster07
post May 2 2017, 08:25 PM
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https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/859514994085572609

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NorEaster07
post May 2 2017, 08:27 PM
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Normal Max is mid 60s. Guess I'll need firewood again.

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