 Dec 29-30 MidAtl/NE Storm, See OBS Thread |
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 Dec 28 2012, 04:23 AM
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#1321
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 6,032 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746  |
QUOTE(baseliner5 @ Dec 28 2012, 04:24 AM)  Yes I saw that "heavy snow". 2-4 forecast with heavy snow for 30 minutes lol There disco says most of it falls within a three hour window. Somebody find old Charley and take that brake handle back or else zoom zoom. |
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Dec 28 2012, 04:37 AM
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#1322
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 260 Joined: 6-April 12 Member No.: 26,517 |
Updated Snow Map For Saturday
Colder than most at the coast, latest SREF shows most members with impressive frontogenetic forcing from 850-700mb becoming almost vertically stacked from PA/DE/NJ border on north and along the coast into Southern New England. I think this will be enough to overcome any warm air advection. -------------------- |
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Dec 28 2012, 04:50 AM
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#1323
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,281 Joined: 17-December 08 From: Freehold Boro Member No.: 16,547 |
6z gfs
About .35" here in monmouth county, hopefully surface temps cooperate.. This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Dec 28 2012, 04:55 AM -------------------- Central monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30" Freehold boro snowfall 2008 - 2009: 26.8" 2009 - 2010: 74.2" 2010 - 2011: 61.1" 2011 - 2012: 8.5" 2012 - 2013: 37.1" |
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Dec 28 2012, 05:16 AM
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#1324
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,032 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
Take a look at the 300mb flow - there is an embedded jet of 120+ within that flow - our event from BD only had a 90 or so to work with. At H5 the embedded streak is around 70+. That should give us an indicator of why some of the things that happened this past storm will likely not happen this time around (like a coastal taking over in a slow manner and brining in a ton of WAA - or that it will be a lingering system).
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis....php?sector=19# Don't take a nap during Saturday unless you don't mind missing the bulk of this event. And for the record, yes - I'm thinking no matter where you are in the region, this will be the theme. This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 28 2012, 05:25 AM |
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Dec 28 2012, 05:28 AM
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#1325
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,032 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
Where's PSU this morning? The 6z GFS is noticeably stronger with the system as it reaches his latitudes (deeper by about 4mb and that from an off hour run is a strong signal).
It still has no staying power though, but it could increase some totals for some of the NE coast. |
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Dec 28 2012, 05:32 AM
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#1326
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 759 Joined: 1-February 10 From: Byram Township, NJ Member No.: 21,269 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2012, 05:28 AM) Where's PSU this morning? The 6z GFS is noticeably stronger with the system as it reaches his latitudes (deeper by about 4mb and that from an off hour run is a strong signal). It still has no staying power though, but it could increase some totals for some of the NE coast. It's so close. I could get a strong 7 iron out to the goods in the ocean... Tick, tick, tick NW... |
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Dec 28 2012, 06:49 AM
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#1327
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 396 Joined: 11-January 08 From: Philly phinally after 10 years in NYC Member No.: 12,295 |
First, good morning all! Another Friday before a great Holiday, and unsettled weather at the helm.
As advertised, though disappointed some blocking didn't come in to slow this quick hitter down, but it has the SE bias I expected, and for once we are talking the southern edge of I-95, those sections just south and east that will out perform interior and north and west of 95. Not to be jaded, but 4" is, well, 4". Saw the guidance for the Wed/Thurs system, which brews out of a stalled front, and later today as this storm is all but settled, we can discuss that one. Now, I have go forth, dispense my brand of justice, American style ( Civil, not criminal ), and today features fun and games with PMA. I guess my intimacy with hard-headed carriers, serves me well dealing with models like the GFS  Hope you all have your own fun today, where ever it might be found. Opportunities abound. -------------------- "WE FEW, WE HAPPY FEW, WE (DEFORMATION) BAND OF (SNOW) BROTHERS"
  GO FLYERS!! WE'RE BAAACCK!! BRING IT ON! |
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Dec 28 2012, 06:58 AM
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#1328
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,413 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
Current radar and temps behind and ahead of the storm.
It's all about timing. If the northern branch connects with the Sub Tropical Jet then half foot of snow is possible anywhere from Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England. Snow is breaking out across Tenneessee right now so its cold enough for snow ahead of the systems
-------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Dec 28 2012, 06:57 AM
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#1329
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,032 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg - Elev 1000' Member No.: 21,746 |
gonna be time for an Obsx thread before too long. Meanwhile, here's a look at 3Hr PF's for the lead in
 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur Beginning to look like a link trying to establish itself. |
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Dec 28 2012, 07:12 AM
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#1330
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 547 Joined: 23-October 09 From: RI Member No.: 19,568 |
 Taunton -------------------- 10/11 Season - 60.9"
11/12 Season - 18.7" 12/13 Season WWA, 11/7, 12/24, 1/15/13, 1/21/13, 1/28/13, 2/12/13, 3/6/13, 3/18/13 WSW, 12/28/12, 2/16/13, 3/7/13 BW, 2/7/13 11/6/12 - record low of 24 11/7/12 - 1.5" first snow 11/27/12 - Trace 12/1/12 - coating 12/25/12 - coating 12/26/12 - 1.1" 12/29/12 - 8" 1/6/13 - .75" 1/16/13 - 3.5" 1/21/13 - 2.5" 1/25/13 - .25" 1/28/13 - .5" with glaze of ice 2/4/13 - trace 2/5/13 - coating 2/9/13 - 20" 2/14/13 - 1.5" 2/17/13 - 4" 2/24/13 - Coating 2/25/13 - .5" 3/3/13 - trace 3/8/13 - 3" 3/19/13 - 3" 3/21/13 - trace |
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Dec 28 2012, 07:29 AM
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#1331
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 102 Joined: 10-January 11 From: Chester County, Pennsylvania Member No.: 25,063 |
QUOTE(heatburst @ Dec 28 2012, 04:37 AM) Updated Snow Map For Saturday Colder than most at the coast, latest SREF shows most members with impressive frontogenetic forcing from 850-700mb becoming almost vertically stacked from PA/DE/NJ border on north and along the coast into Southern New England. I think this will be enough to overcome any warm air advection. Nice Map... Ill take that as an appetizer to the I95 winter snow season of 2012 / 13 ..
This post has been edited by Jack of all trades: Dec 28 2012, 07:30 AM -------------------- ______________________________ THIN BLUE LINE ______________________________________
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Dec 28 2012, 07:29 AM
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#1332
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 584 Joined: 16-November 11 From: Freehold, NJ Member No.: 26,177 |
Haven't all of our storms this year (nov and dec) overperformed to some extent...some marginally and some significantly? Correct me if im wrong.... if so, here's to another overperformer!
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Dec 28 2012, 07:40 AM
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#1333
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,413 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2012, 06:57 AM) gonna be time for an Obsx thread before too long. Meanwhile, here's a look at 3Hr PF's for the lead in http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur Beginning to look like a link trying to establish itself. I have one ready, thought it would be a bit too early but I might post it before going to work. Done: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30351 This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Dec 28 2012, 08:20 AM -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Dec 28 2012, 09:28 AM
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#1334
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 818 Joined: 14-February 09 From: Hanover, PA Member No.: 17,586 |
Nobody posted the 12z nam?!?!?
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Dec 28 2012, 09:32 AM
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#1335
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 172 Joined: 26-February 10 From: Jericho, NY Member No.: 22,049 |
NAM looks closer at hour 36
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Dec 28 2012, 09:30 AM
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#1336
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 67 Joined: 21-December 09 Member No.: 20,494 |
QUOTE(Art on LI @ Dec 28 2012, 09:32 AM) NAM looks closer at hour 36 Its in the OBS thread. This should be closed. |
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Dec 28 2012, 10:47 AM
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#1337
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 367 Joined: 2-February 10 From: LAKEWOOD NJ Member No.: 21,300 |
QUOTE(heatburst @ Dec 28 2012, 04:37 AM) Updated Snow Map For Saturday Colder than most at the coast, latest SREF shows most members with impressive frontogenetic forcing from 850-700mb becoming almost vertically stacked from PA/DE/NJ border on north and along the coast into Southern New England. I think this will be enough to overcome any warm air advection. i like this map 
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Dec 29 2012, 04:48 AM
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#1338
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 Rank: Whirlwind Group: Member Posts: 27 Joined: 1-January 10 Member No.: 20,677 |
Warnings out for 7"-9" in RI
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Total Snowfall this season 41.5" |
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