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> Jan 15-18 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBSX, Last minute forecasts/ Observations
Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 11:27 AM
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METAR reporting SN in Pittsburgh ATTM (prefrontal bands commonly break out ahead of the main thrust of the precip shield)



and it's been snowing in Williamsport PA for all morning (marine layer influence not storm)

Attached Image


Overview to include main clipper shortwave west of the region

Attached Image


Remember - this thread is date inclusive for the clipper and the associated front with coastal interplay. (simple right? LOL)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 15 2018, 11:59 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 11:29 AM
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Attached Image


Note the Atl side "nudge" of moisture fields, via the marine boundary. It's warm at the coast, for now, but will provide additional mid to low level Rh to be available for in advance of main dynamics. IOW I expect little in the way of Virga.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 15 2018, 11:31 AM
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Solstice
post Jan 15 2018, 11:35 AM
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1 min GOES-16 - Snow/Ice Band



--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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AccuChris
post Jan 15 2018, 11:38 AM
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One obs thread for all dates for this event makes sense. It was confusing with the multiple threads before so one big all encompassing thread for now term makes sense. For PA, the I-81 corridor looks to be the jackpot for this system when blending all the models. It will be fun to watch this all unfold tonight into tomorrow!


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SKYWARN Spotter/Chaser for NWS Mt. Holly, NJ & State College, PA
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wtkidz
post Jan 15 2018, 11:44 AM
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Latest Sterling “eye candy “ map. We will see this isuasuallyoverdone.
Attached thumbnail(s)
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MaineJay
post Jan 15 2018, 11:46 AM
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PWATs

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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 11:47 AM
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That marine layer is squeezing out SN-- in the Hbg region. Have to believe that doesn't help prime the pump, as it were.

Considering the radar with the bands East of Pgh are not matching with METAR of precip at those stations. So there is some dry air that has to be overcome, it seems.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 15 2018, 11:48 AM
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jordan4385
post Jan 15 2018, 11:53 AM
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getting some reports of flurries in places (westminster md ) with nothing on the radar for 200 miles.. just sayin.


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NorEaster07
post Jan 15 2018, 11:56 AM
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One OBS thread. Beautiful. Title could use the OBS letters though.

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Black05GSR
post Jan 15 2018, 11:59 AM
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This is going to be a long duration OBS thread. Should be active from now until Thursday afternoon? laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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AccuChris
post Jan 15 2018, 12:03 PM
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My gut tells me this is one of those systems that surprises many and "overperforms" for a lot. You dont need a massive deepening storm to cause snow to accumulate. With a "stalled" front and plenty of modest frontegenic forcing and ascent, it seems primed to sit and snow for plenty of locations for 18-24 hours or longer. With reports already of flurries, etc the atmosphere is tipping its hand where it wants to snow and will have no issue with cold temps to accumulate tonight through tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.


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SKYWARN Spotter/Chaser for NWS Mt. Holly, NJ & State College, PA
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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:06 PM
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These dates were designed to only deal with the aforementioned features. If the "so called" final wave develops - probably have to be its own deal. It would just get going as this one moves away from ME.

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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(AccuChris @ Jan 15 2018, 12:03 PM) *
My gut tells me this is one of those systems that surprises many and "overperforms" for a lot. You dont need a massive deepening storm to cause snow to accumulate. With a "stalled" front and plenty of modest frontegenic forcing and ascent, it seems primed to sit and snow for plenty of locations for 18-24 hours or longer. With reports already of flurries, etc the atmosphere is tipping its hand where it wants to snow and will have no issue with cold temps to accumulate tonight through tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

That's where I've been hedging towards AC. With an early "handshake" from the Alt side, it's a game changer over typical clipper evolution. Not enough to spin a storm at this lat, but it will throw precip back into stalled/deep enough cold before getting itself together for S NE and up.

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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(AccuChris @ Jan 15 2018, 10:38 AM) *
One obs thread for all dates for this event makes sense. It was confusing with the multiple threads before so one big all encompassing thread for now term makes sense. For PA, the I-81 corridor looks to be the jackpot for this system when blending all the models. It will be fun to watch this all unfold tonight into tomorrow!


You act like we had 3 or more. laugh.gif

The only reason why it might have been confusing is because people were posting total snowfall maps instead of 24hr in the coastal thread.


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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:13 PM
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Not sure if this is the same as I posted in the opener thread, I think this was after that one. No matter, it's here now

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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:15 PM
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Just to point out the difference between this event discussion and the next potential.

This is from updated WPC EXTENDED discussion

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

.
QUOTE
GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES WERE SEEN AT THE SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE
HAND-OFF IN THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND ADJACENT W ATLANTIC
AS
A SYSTEM DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL TROUGH (OR PERHAPS
CLOSED LOW) SHOULD EXIT THE DELMARVA EARLY THURSDAY PER THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN (AND THEIR ENSEMBLES) BUT THE 00Z/06Z GFS
RUNS (AND GEFS ENSEMBLES) WERE QUICKER/WEAKER WITH IT. GIVEN THE
TENDENCY FOR THE GFS TO BE TOO QUICK OPTED TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON
THE SLOWER CAMP BUT STILL PREFERRED A QUICKER SOLUTION THAN THE
ECMWF-LED CLUSTER VERBATIM
. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PMDHMD (SHORT
RANGE DISCUSSION) FOR DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE (AND WITH THE LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE) AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THAT TIME RANGE.
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EstorilM
post Jan 15 2018, 12:16 PM
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QUOTE(wtkidz @ Jan 15 2018, 11:44 AM) *
Latest Sterling “eye candy “ map. We will see this isuasuallyoverdone.

Seemed to have backed off a good bit from the last map... isn't everything trending up a tad though?
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MaineJay
post Jan 15 2018, 12:22 PM
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GOES16 band 3

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http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


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Undertakerson
post Jan 15 2018, 12:22 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 15 2018, 12:22 PM) *

Very cool look at that eastern moisture feed back into PA et al. smile.gif
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jordan4385
post Jan 15 2018, 12:23 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 15 2018, 12:22 PM) *


dam, there's so much going on here. you can see the different levels at work.


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