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> December 13-14 Mid Atl/NE Clipper, Reality: Short Range (0-3 days out) Forecast
avsguy01
post Dec 12 2017, 04:39 PM
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Below is an AFD for the MT Holly Region. There has been some confusion on the initial storm threat for the 15th/16th thread that was created earlier this week. It seems that the evolution of the pattern has popped out another clipper passing through in this time frame (13-14th) and doesn't seem to have been captured in our thread discussions. This is my first time opening up a thread, so forgive me if some of the information is not normal board protocol.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
300 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening, and then
high pressure passes south of the region on Wednesday. Several
weak low pressure systems will impact the area through the end
of the work week. High pressure returns for the weekend, and
then another system will affect the East Coast early in the new
week.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly active pattern is in place for the Long Term as
several weak clipper systems pass through the region through the
end of the work week, and then again for the start of the new
week. Each system will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air that
will keep temperatures below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures may then moderate a bit back closer to normal for
the start of the new week.

The first clipper system approaches Wednesday evening and then
slowly works its way across the region before moving offshore by
Thursday afternoon. The surface low tracks from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late Thursday morning. Fairly potent H5 shortwave
passes through southeast PA and NJ and 125 KT jet streak passes
south of the Delmarva Thursday morning. With overnight lows in
the teens and 20s, there will be plenty of cold air in place to
support an all snow event starting in the evening, and then
really getting going from around midnight through daybreak or so
Thursday. QPF amounts will be light, generally around 1/10",
but temps will be cold enough to support around 1", but in some
cases, up to 2" of new snow Wednesday night through Thursday
morning. Could make for a slippery commute in most areas.

Precip tapers off Thursday afternoon, possibly mixing with a
brief period of rain mainly south of I-195 before ending.

This post has been edited by avsguy01: Dec 12 2017, 04:51 PM
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Undertakerson
post Dec 12 2017, 04:44 PM
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LOL

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33397

I gave up on you AV - sorry. sad.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Please, knock before you walk into my dreams.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 12 2017, 04:45 PM
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QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
538 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-131045-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
538 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered snow showers will occur today and tonight with the chance
for a few briefly heavier squalls. West to northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 25 mph with frequent gusts of 35 to 40 mph this
afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional scattered snow showers and gusty winds will occur tonight
and Wednesday with light accumulations in some locations. Winds will
lighten up and a few periods of steadier light snow will occur
Wednesday night into Thursday with a coating to one inch of snow
likely.


--------------------
Please, knock before you walk into my dreams.
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phillyfan
post Dec 12 2017, 04:47 PM
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P&C from Mount Holly:
QUOTE
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Thursday
A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Light northwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5"

Total: 12"
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avsguy01
post Dec 12 2017, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 12 2017, 04:44 PM) *


Its all good, sorry for the delay. Being my first thread creation and the fact I am at work surely contributed to "giving up on AV"! laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Dec 12 2017, 04:50 PM
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Just happy to see other thread creators. Once you get it, it's (sometimes too) easy.

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--------------------
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Solstice
post Dec 12 2017, 05:10 PM
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As soon as the system crosses the Poconos, it consistently loses a lot of *thump*. Looking like a glorified dusting in CT.

RGEM

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 12 2017, 05:11 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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stretchct
post Dec 12 2017, 05:11 PM
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NAM calling for up to an inch and a half




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 12 2017, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 12 2017, 05:10 PM) *
As soon as the system crosses the Poconos, it consistently loses a lot of *thump*. Looking like a glorified dusting in CT.

RGEM

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If this graphic were to verify I'd be looking at here IMBY a coating to an inch, which hey this early in the game I'd be more than happy with. tongue.gif
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JDClapper
post Dec 12 2017, 08:56 PM
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NAM since hr 84 (now hr 12) .. really popped into the picture just 24 or so hours ago. ohmy.gif

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 12 2017, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 12 2017, 08:56 PM) *
NAM since hr 84 (now hr 12) .. really popped into the picture just 24 or so hours ago. ohmy.gif

Attached Image


Come on Booker for Clapper. I can feel the excitement. I've loaded truck full of snow for you if this one doesn't deliver.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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rtcemc
post Dec 12 2017, 09:02 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 12 2017, 08:59 PM) *
Come on Booker for Clapper. I can feel the excitement. I've loaded truck full of snow for you if this one doesn't deliver.

My first act, as new mod will be to appoint you as my co - pilot cool.gif
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JDClapper
post Dec 12 2017, 09:03 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 12 2017, 09:59 PM) *
Come on Booker for Clapper. I can feel the excitement. I've loaded truck full of snow for you if this one doesn't deliver.


SREF says this is for real .. I could feel the air deflate within 36 hours on this last one.. but this one.. just may be legit.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 12 2017, 09:11 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Dec 12 2017, 09:02 PM) *
My first act, as new mod will be to appoint you as my co - pilot cool.gif


I graciously accept. It is time....


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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JDClapper
post Dec 12 2017, 09:13 PM
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Ladies and gentlemen .. Mr. Conway Twitty .. er, the 0z NAM.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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JDClapper
post Dec 12 2017, 09:13 PM
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Member No.: 26,143





Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 12 2017, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 12 2017, 09:13 PM) *
Ladies and gentlemen .. Mr. Conway Twitty .. er, the 0z NAM.

Attached Image


Nope.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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JDClapper
post Dec 12 2017, 09:15 PM
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NAM trend since hr 84.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 12 2017, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 12 2017, 09:15 PM) *
NAM trend since hr 84.

Attached Image


If love that result, drops another 3-6", but I'll bet low passes further south then that depiction.

Having said that, I do believe this is your first Booker of the season.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Dec 12 2017, 09:23 PM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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rtcemc
post Dec 12 2017, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 12 2017, 09:11 PM) *
I graciously accept. It is time....

Yup, and first step with be to rid this forum of endless self promoting bloviators how add very little real knowledge. UT, you are on notice blink.gif blink.gif
Clap, you are on 30 day probation, and MD and I can be bought. Just wanna make sure Renken is on board. Haven't received official notice yet, or a warning that I have been modded out laugh.gif
MD, on to the 21-23 thread, and lets trash, I mean clean, that puppy up!
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