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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Mar 29 2017, 09:18 AM
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Undertakerson

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29 Mar 2017
I've been watching this time period since I first noticed this outlook on the OPC maps

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It's starting to get within reasonable range to pay even more attention.

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27 Mar 2017
Models are converging on the idea of some sort of coastal system in this time frame. Could be some winter in there, for the folks in up state NY and N NE.

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Euro looks to be a bit colder than GFS - GFS seems to be its usual progressive self, ATTM
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Otherwise, a rainy time for the April Fools Day weekend.

I would downplay any potential for SN out of this, outside the aforementioned regions - I do believe that an "onion snow" is still in the making, perhaps much later than some would imagine.

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2015/05/...-an-onion-snow/
18 Mar 2017
Maybe this doesn't provide much fireworks, but this has been looking a bit more of a threat with each passing model run.

I'll just show the 18z GFS for illustrative purpose, prev runs have been more south, but have come back north in increments.

Just thought we might need this space, eventually.


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13 Mar 2017
Per forum rules, Obsx thread opens when precip is confirmed in the region

Here we go gang smile.gif

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4 Mar 2017
OK - so I've got time on my hands this morning and, since there's been discussion in the thread for the storm preceding this time period, I just felt it prudent to start a separate thread for any discussion which may or may not transpire hereafter.

So, much of the "buzz" is centering on the 3/4 00z Euro Op run - might as well start there and post the images for posterity and confirmation sake

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(CAUTION - viewing the following "candy" image, may rot more than just your teeth. You may wish to get your children and any weenies in your home, away from the screen, prior to viewing)

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Now the GFS for 00z 3/4

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CMC


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CFS (for good measure)

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6z MREF (00z not avail via Ewall for some reason)
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The spaghetti is very much "strewn"
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A point that I had made in the 3/11 thread about the ONI in a year where we come off a weak/neutral Nina. This illustrates (again) "potential only" for a late season "surprise"

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There are so many reasons and signals that say a major winter storm will NOT happen. Frankly, there seem to be (at present) more "cons" than "pros".

For example - the NAO signal
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So. please, let's get too excited one way or the other - we are discussing potential at present. If that potential wanes, then we allow this thread to die on its own.

Let the discussion (either way) begin. smile.gif
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