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Undertakerson
Rank: F5 Superstorm
57 years old
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Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
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On Fb as the WxWiinii
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Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: May 23 2017, 03:16 AM
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Undertakerson

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15 May 2017
Looks like we have a one week window of warmth for the region. Still a touch below average today, but tomorrow through Thursday go HOT, calming back a bit for the weekend before the cooler (than average) temps make a run at us near 5-22/23.

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QUOTE
Model spread and resulting forecast uncertainty ramps up
Fri-Sun, revolving around timing and southern reach of a back
door cold front.


Frontal passage Friday, followed by a return of warm front late
in the weekend
ahead of a surface low tracking west of PA.
2 May 2017
With the passing of last night's storms, the region (esp. the MidAtl) will fall into an extended period of below seasonal average - outright chilly and at times cold. This probably lasts to near mid-month as indicated by the BSR and CPC guidance (not to mention the LR GFS).

I don't have time to post images, but figured I might as well start thread (but come on now, I can't start them ALL - or can I? laugh.gif )

Of course, we have the late week system to get to first, so I'll use that as the start date.

QUOTE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021520
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 AM EDT Tue May 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that produced Monday`s line of strong to severe
thunderstorms was nearing the New Jersey coast this morning. A
secondary cold front at the surface and aloft will push east
across Central Pennsylvania today bringing some additional
showers across the northern and western mountains. Quite strong
and gusty west to southwest winds will develop for this
afternoon. Fair weather will occur Wednesday through much of
Thursday morning as an area of high pressure builds in from the
western lakes and becomes centered right over the state
Wednesday night. The next, moisture laden storm system will be
the result of a rapidly amplifying upper trough and deepening
surface low that will evolve into an anomalously strong and
nearly stationary upper low that will meander across the
Northeast U.S. over the upcoming weekend and through the first
half of next week.
29 Apr 2017
Well, TeleJ opened the coastal threat thread - so to fulfill my part of the bargain, I am opening this one.

QUOTE
SPC AC 290723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible from parts of the lower Great
Lakes to the southeast states on Monday, with the highest likelihood
from West Virginia to parts of Pennsylvania.

...Synopsis...
An expansive closed low will continue lifting northeast towards the
Upper Great Lakes on Monday, with broad cyclonic flow enveloping a
majority of the contiguous US
. Within this flow, embedded impulses
will likely translate northeast across parts of the Midwest,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.

...Gulf Coast to the Lower Great Lakes...
Along/ahead of a cold front pushing east, an expansive corridor of
showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the Gulf Coast
northward to the Ohio Valley Monday. Near the southern end of this
corridor, a few strong to marginally severe storms may be ongoing in
the morning, aided by rich low-level moisture and weak/moderate
buoyancy. However, these storms will likely weaken through the first
half of the day, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced
farther north.

Across the central Appalachians and northward, storms will likely
form/re-intensify along the surface front and/or a pre-frontal
trough during the afternoon hours. Strong mid-level flow and modest
veering with height will offer favorable low-level/deep-layer shear
for updraft organization. In terms of forecast buoyancy, cloud cover
may limit the amount of heating/destabilization over the region, and
most forecast soundings depict relatively narrow mixed-layer CAPE
profiles. Nonetheless, sufficient buoyancy for at least a few severe
storms, capable of strong winds, severe hail, and perhaps a tornado
or two, appears probable. Additionally, portions of the Marginal
(most likely West Virginia, northwest Virginia, and points
northward) may require an upgrade to Slight if confidence in
sufficient surface-based buoyancy
continues to increase
.

..Picca.. 04/29/2017


Of course, daytime heating would increase the threat, but I'm thinking that column mixing and lapse rates should do the bulk of the heavy work in this kind of set up.
30 Mar 2017
No thread yet for this threat. So, as if I were playing Monopoly, I might as well establish a "corner of the board"

GFS look

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29 Mar 2017
I've been watching this time period since I first noticed this outlook on the OPC maps

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It's starting to get within reasonable range to pay even more attention.

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