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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
weatherboss
post Sep 21 2017, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2017, 01:05 AM) *
This definitely has better potential to be a multi-year Nina than the one last winter.

Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2017, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE(weatherboss @ Sep 21 2017, 02:57 PM) *
Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...

Not sure if there's a connection between strength and length. But I say that because of how it's forming along with the subsurface.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2017, 11:43 PM
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Anyone else read this and think about what that'd do to the SSTs? No? Dang, ok laugh.gif

QUOTE
North Korea could test hydrogen bomb over Pacific Ocean, says foreign minister

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/kim...ents/index.html

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 21 2017, 11:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 23 2017, 12:07 AM
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QUOTE(weatherboss @ Sep 21 2017, 02:57 PM) *
Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...

There are larger negative anomalies father below the surface this year than last year. Vertical motions in the ocean are slow, but easterly trade winds will eventually bring them to the surface.

Generally speaking though ENSO is a phenomena that kills itself through feedback mechanisms, particularly the El Nino phase. Historically, strong El Nino events are followed by multi year La Nina episodes.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 23 2017, 02:08 AM
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And La Ninas are more likely to be longer-lived than El Nino.

1) El Ninos encourage more active thunderstorms than normal, which naturally stabilizes the atmosphere and ocean

2) El Nino is an entire reversal of the climatological pattern, whereas Nina is simply an enhancement. It's harder to maintain a reversal pattern than it is to maintain an enhancement.

That's why the record continuous length of an El Nino was this past El Nino event (19 months >0.5 ONI), and the record continuous length of La Nina is 29 months <-0.5 ONI.

If you want a long-lived or significant event, then there's ways you want the event to start. If it's a long-lived or significant Nino, then you need the event to start near the IDL because that's where some of the warmest waters in the world are and the WWBs will push it east.

If you want a long-lived or significant Nina, then you want it to start along the western coast of South America because that's where some of the coolest subtropical water is. Enhanced trade winds will do 2 things... push the cooler water west, and it will encourage upwelling which also keeps the SSTs cool


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 23 2017, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 23 2017, 03:08 AM) *
And La Ninas are more likely to be longer-lived than El Nino.

1) El Ninos encourage more active thunderstorms than normal, which naturally stabilizes the atmosphere and ocean

2) El Nino is an entire reversal of the climatological pattern, whereas Nina is simply an enhancement. It's harder to maintain a reversal pattern than it is to maintain an enhancement.

That's why the record continuous length of an El Nino was this past El Nino event (19 months >0.5 ONI), and the record continuous length of La Nina is 29 months <-0.5 ONI.

If you want a long-lived or significant event, then there's ways you want the event to start. If it's a long-lived or significant Nino, then you need the event to start near the IDL because that's where some of the warmest waters in the world are and the WWBs will push it east.

If you want a long-lived or significant Nina, then you want it to start along the western coast of South America because that's where some of the coolest subtropical water is. Enhanced trade winds will do 2 things... push the cooler water west, and it will encourage upwelling which also keeps the SSTs cool

Well said!

My only criticism is with 1) ... thunderstorms are normally active along the equator, El Nino shifts the position of thunderstorm activity away from the Western Pacific warm pool (i.e. reversal of Walker Circulation climatology).


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 23 2017, 10:34 AM) *
Well said!

My only criticism is with 1) ... thunderstorms are normally active along the equator, El Nino shifts the position of thunderstorm activity away from the Western Pacific warm pool (i.e. reversal of Walker Circulation climatology).

Thanks.

Correct. I meant to say that the thunderstorms in the new area (usually east of the warm pool) helps cool the SSTs in the area, so there's a negative feedback going on; you need WWBs to persist otherwise you're getting a short-lived Nino. Especially prolonged WWBs are hard to come by, which is why Ninos are typically the shortest lived and the longest lived Nina episode survived almost a year longer than the longest lived Nino. And I'm sure the average lifespan of a Nina is much longer than a Nino.

--

Now the 2 eastern most Nino regions are in moderate Nina territory.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0




The pattern in the north Pacific and North America is starting to be reminiscent of last fall with a large Bering ridge persistently forcing troughs to dip into the west and building ridges in the east even though the Nina is based further east.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 12:23 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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