 January 10-12 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] Forecast |
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 Jan 7 2013, 12:27 AM
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#121
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713  |
Get the feeling that the dates on this will need to be changed. Looking like the storm initially for this thread comes through around 11-12 and then a secondary forms in the south and affects mainly the OV and parts of the eastern GL around 13-15 area.
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Jan 7 2013, 08:10 AM
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#122
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
00z GFS dropped 2.5'' rain....06z 3.7''.... spring like flooding if that comes to reality with already saturated grounds BEFORE the foot of snow...add that melting snowpack on saturated grounds plus 3'' of rain..ouch
This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 7 2013, 08:11 AM |
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Jan 7 2013, 10:11 AM
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#123
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 557 Joined: 11-February 08 From: Indianapolis, IN Member No.: 13,619 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 7 2013, 09:10 AM)  00z GFS dropped 2.5'' rain....06z 3.7''.... spring like flooding if that comes to reality with already saturated grounds BEFORE the foot of snow...add that melting snowpack on saturated grounds plus 3'' of rain..ouch I think one thing that might help the situation is the duration of the event...the entire area will see 2-3 days of highs in the 40s this week before the storm, so the snowpack should be all but eliminated before the rain begins. I agree though, flooding could be an issue if those qpf numbers verify.
noaa
hpc |
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Jan 7 2013, 11:06 AM
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#124
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 716 Joined: 16-February 10 From: Columbus, OH Member No.: 21,809 |
Rain-train full steam ahead for Ohio.
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Jan 7 2013, 01:25 PM
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#125
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,552 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Northern Portage County Ohio Member No.: 16,592 |
yea it doesn't look good for much of the area. i saw that great lakes weather also mentions possible flooding in their outlook http://www.greatlakesweather.net/today-s-outlook/
-------------------- Average Seasonal Snowfall 92.3"
2012-2013 Winter Total 57.0" Significant Events: December 20th Lake Enhancement/Effect 8.5" December 26th Synoptic Snow 5.9" December 29th-30th Synoptic Snow/Lake Enhancement and Effect 4.2" January 25th-26th Synoptic Snow/Lake Effect 4.0" February 2nd-3rd Synoptic Snow 5.4" February 17th Lake Effect Snow 5.7" February 28th-March 3rd Lake Effect 4.3" Current Snow Depth- 3.0" 2011-2012 Winter Total 56.0" 2010-2011 Winter Total 130.0" 'A Year To Remember' 2009-2010 Winter Total- 91.1" Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851 |
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Jan 7 2013, 01:45 PM
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#126
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,758 Joined: 16-November 08 From: Cincinnati, OH Member No.: 16,172 |
I should be good here. Snow is all gone and with some days of dry and sun the ground should have time dry out a lot.
-------------------- Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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Jan 7 2013, 01:56 PM
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#127
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,996 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Columbus Member No.: 13,767 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 7 2013, 08:10 AM) 00z GFS dropped 2.5'' rain....06z 3.7''.... spring like flooding if that comes to reality with already saturated grounds BEFORE the foot of snow...add that melting snowpack on saturated grounds plus 3'' of rain..ouch 12z GFS followed up with 3.2'' |
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Jan 7 2013, 05:43 PM
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#128
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 7 2013, 12:27 AM) Get the feeling that the dates on this will need to be changed. Looking like the storm initially for this thread comes through around 11-12 and then a secondary forms in the south and affects mainly the OV and parts of the eastern GL around 13-15 area. Going to create a thread now for the bolded part so there is no confusion. Dates for this thread should be changed to 10-11 or something in that area. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Jan 8 2013, 07:35 AM
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#129
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,478 Joined: 7-December 10 From: Chicago Member No.: 24,567 |
QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 7 2013, 06:43 PM) Going to create a thread now for the bolded part so there is no confusion. Dates for this thread should be changed to 10-11 or something in that area. Changed to 10-12. -------------------- My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com
2013 Severe Weather Season Tornado Watches: 0 Tornado Warnings: 0 Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4 Slight Risk Days: 4 Moderate Risk Days: 0 High Risk Days: 0 Annual Snowfall 2012-2013: 37.5'' QUOTE When looking at the models: Trends, trends, trends! |
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Jan 8 2013, 10:38 AM
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#130
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 705 Joined: 26-December 09 From: Hamilton County, IN Member No.: 20,567 |
Oh boy. Rain in January. I'm so excited
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Jan 8 2013, 01:14 PM
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#131
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,534 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
12Z GFS has this giving me 1.1" of rain, NAM says .75". All the big QPF makers always seem to fall as rain, but any precip is good precip right now. Going to be a muddy mess though, wish I could teach my dog to wash his own feet
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Jan 8 2013, 09:06 PM
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#132
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 2,108 Joined: 4-January 05 From: Detroit, MI Member No.: 610 |
Is it winter? Looking at mid 50s and rain.
-------------------- Winter 2012-2013
2 Winter Storm Watches 0 Winter Storm Warnings 3 Winter Weather Advisories 2+ years without a 6"+ snowstorm in Detroit 1st winter since I began tracking (2004) without a Winter Storm Warning  |
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Jan 8 2013, 10:13 PM
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#133
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,451 Joined: 27-February 08 From: shelby twp,Michigan Member No.: 14,019 |
QUOTE(Playa21 @ Jan 8 2013, 09:06 PM) Is it winter? Looking at mid 50s and rain. This is a very typical January thaw and actually a very short one. Temps will be back cold again by Sunday night. Gfs been showing a chance for a moderate snowfall a few days after that. We have had a moderate snow pack on the ground in most of Se Mi for over 2 plus weeks now. Whe have received anywhere from 11- 16 inches of snow so far this winter. While not spectacular it is alot better than most places in the midwest. Just ask Chicago area or Grand Rapids and many others. Same thing for the mid Atlantic and parts of the east coast. Again not many places I would trade with thus far... we have actually been very lucky. |
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Jan 9 2013, 03:19 PM
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#134
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 705 Joined: 26-December 09 From: Hamilton County, IN Member No.: 20,567 |
This type of pattern really reminds of those that set up major ice storms....those lovin' the warm temps should be aware of what might be comin' around the corner...
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Jan 10 2013, 08:04 AM
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#135
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 547 Joined: 26-August 10 From: Waukee, Ia Member No.: 23,484 |
Not only is it too warm for snow for my area...but we are going to miss most of the rain also...dry air! This drought is no fun!
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Jan 10 2013, 01:51 PM
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#136
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 3,101 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Columbia, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(snow4ever @ Jan 10 2013, 09:04 AM) Not only is it too warm for snow for my area...but we are going to miss most of the rain also...dry air! This drought is no fun! The dry air in place is more due to climatology rather than the drought, especially considering the deep snow pack in place over the Des Moines area. Not all of Iowa will miss out on some good rains btw here is the 15z HRRR total accumulated precip
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-------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
OHV / MIDWEST needs its own dedicated professional accuweather blogger ... |
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Jan 10 2013, 02:52 PM
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#137
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 547 Joined: 26-August 10 From: Waukee, Ia Member No.: 23,484 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 10 2013, 12:51 PM) The dry air in place is more due to climatology rather than the drought, especially considering the deep snow pack in place over the Des Moines area. Not all of Iowa will miss out on some good rains btw here is the 15z HRRR total accumulated precip Ok....I guess us getting a tenth of an inch isn't going to help the drought...4-5 days ago local mets were talking 3/4-1 inch....not gonna happen now.....we will be lucky to see the tenth... We have fought dry air for like 18 months.....the 10 inch snow storm we got in Dec was the most precip at one time for a very long time, prob back to Aug of 2011, that is when the rain shut off.....it rained all spring, most the summer...then shut off about the 2nd week of Aug 2011. Im a snow lover, but I am pulling for ANY precip! I don't want another summer like 2012! |
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Jan 10 2013, 08:15 PM
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#138
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 3,101 Joined: 10-June 07 From: Columbia, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
QUOTE(snow4ever @ Jan 10 2013, 03:52 PM) Ok....I guess us getting a tenth of an inch isn't going to help the drought...4-5 days ago local mets were talking 3/4-1 inch....not gonna happen now.....we will be lucky to see the tenth... We have fought dry air for like 18 months.....the 10 inch snow storm we got in Dec was the most precip at one time for a very long time, prob back to Aug of 2011, that is when the rain shut off.....it rained all spring, most the summer...then shut off about the 2nd week of Aug 2011. Im a snow lover, but I am pulling for ANY precip! I don't want another summer like 2012! Trust me I lived in the midwest last summer too, I know just what it was like for the rain to "shut off" except it happened in May for Missouri. However, that is not my point ... once you cover really dry soil with snow it no longer matters how dry the soil is because it is no longer the evaporating substrate. In the middle of the summer evaporation from the soil and transpiration from the plants are major components for moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This moisture happens to be most critical for convection formation, which is why the rain just "shut-off" last summer as soon as the soil was baked dry by the very early, warm, and sunny spring last year. However, it is now January and the vast majority of plant are/should be dormant at this time of year so evapotranspiration really just becomes evaporation. Additionally, winter cyclones are far less dependent on instability to produce precipitation because dynamics are much stronger in the winter time as the jet stream sinks southwards. I understand it is frustrating to miss another precip event, but the real test for the ongoing drought will be whether or not the spring rain storms materialize. I just have my fingers crossed for the above average snow coverage this winter to continue into spring, which will certainly at least help alleviate drought conditions. Not to mention at least half the trees in this region died last summer so there will be far less transpiration using the limited water resources for at least a couple summers. -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
OHV / MIDWEST needs its own dedicated professional accuweather blogger ... |
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Jan 10 2013, 08:34 PM
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#139
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
I'm guessing that this Obs Thread is for this storm?
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 06:10 AM |