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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
Juniorrr
post Yesterday, 11:32 AM
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Boring April so far except for that one event.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Yesterday, 11:32 AM
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MotownWX
post Yesterday, 12:04 PM
Post #742




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So glad we've turned the corner. I was beyond tired of the 30s/40s.
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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 03:21 PM
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Animated GIF: The first twenty-four days of April 2018 via my webcam noon shot.





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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 24 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Animated GIF: The first twenty-four days of April 2018 via my webcam noon shot.



Always fun to see. I should put mine together. Looks like the 14th snow lasted the longest? Are u missing a few days?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 07:17 PM
Post #745




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It may seem like I finally just stopped talking about MJO phase 2 but I might not be done yet.

GFS and Euro have been hinting that the MJO could be close to moving out of COD into phases 8 and 1 to begin the second week of May. Euro actually has this happening, GFS is extremely close. This opens the possibility for the MJO to move into phase 2 again sometime between May 10-15, which suggests another severe weather outbreak in that timeframe.

The MJO was in phase 2 from April 12-15. There was a 3-day tornado outbreak from April 13-15 where there were 96 tornado reports and 878 total reports of severe weather all across the southern US. The first day of the outbreak could've been much more damaging if VBV wasn't present in the threat region (something that SPC completely missed somehow).




BSR suggesting a western trough around the 16th. Perhaps the models will lock onto a new MJO wave and slow it down from what Euro's showing, maybe go through phase 2 from May 14-17?



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 07:27 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Yesterday, 10:13 PM
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I've been using the CPC site for the GEFS.For some reason the MJO has been lagging on othersAttached File  Climate_Prediction_Center___Daily_MJO_Indices.png ( 112.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...k/MJO/mjo.shtml


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grandpaboy
post Yesterday, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 24 2018, 04:21 PM) *
Animated GIF: The first twenty-four days of April 2018 via my webcam noon shot.




Nice man, gotta love April snow..

you guys bore the burnt of the April snow and cold...hopefully warmer days ahead...


--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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OSNW3
post Today, 06:20 AM
Post #748




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 24 2018, 06:58 PM) *
Always fun to see. I should put mine together. Looks like the 14th snow lasted the longest? Are u missing a few days?


Agreed, and yes, the mid month storm was a whopper. As far as I can tell, all April days through the 24th are accounted for in the animation...


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OSNW3
post Today, 06:23 AM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 24 2018, 10:56 PM) *
Nice man, gotta love April snow..

you guys bore the burnt of the April snow and cold...hopefully warmer days ahead...


You know what they say, "April showers bring May flowers.", lol. The deep snowpack from the storm derailed many spring outdoor activities but things are slowly getting back on track...


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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:30 PM
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GFS is hilarious. Goes from winter-like pattern (this weekend) to spring-like pattern (first week of May) to summer-like pattern (>240 hours)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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yamvmax
post Today, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 25 2018, 12:30 PM) *
GFS is hilarious. Goes from winter-like pattern (this weekend) to spring-like pattern (first week of May) to summer-like pattern (>240 hours)

It wouldn't surprise me if this actually happens.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 05:04 PM
Post #752




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From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 24 2018, 08:17 PM) *
It may seem like I finally just stopped talking about MJO phase 2 but I might not be done yet.

GFS and Euro have been hinting that the MJO could be close to moving out of COD into phases 8 and 1 to begin the second week of May. Euro actually has this happening, GFS is extremely close. This opens the possibility for the MJO to move into phase 2 again sometime between May 10-15, which suggests another severe weather outbreak in that timeframe.

The MJO was in phase 2 from April 12-15. There was a 3-day tornado outbreak from April 13-15 where there were 96 tornado reports and 878 total reports of severe weather all across the southern US. The first day of the outbreak could've been much more damaging if VBV wasn't present in the threat region (something that SPC completely missed somehow).

BSR suggesting a western trough around the 16th. Perhaps the models will lock onto a new MJO wave and slow it down from what Euro's showing, maybe go through phase 2 from May 14-17?

BSR CONUS correlation overlay with all the systems worth watching through mid-month-ish. May 2, May 5, May 11, May 15-18 are dates of interest. Emphasis on May 15-18 if MJO makes it to phase 2.






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 05:07 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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