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> 2017-2018 La Niņa watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 12 2018, 09:14 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 11 2018, 03:43 PM) *
NOAA/PMEL also uses TAO buoy data as well as TOPEX/POSEIDON which im not as familiar with.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...e/wkxzteq.shtml

I think BOM just cuts it right east of 100W so maybe around ~90-95W it still has it there just doesnt show the upper surface region which just happens to be east of there.

This I believe shows what you are saying right? Also I know BOM has a daily SST tracker sort of like Tropical Tidbits does but breaks the whole 1+2 thing and actually measures 1 and 2 seperately and then together, just cant find it only see weeklies.

Yes, I like that image. I've drawn some arrows on it to show a schematic of the equatorial circulation. The point is that vertical motions are focused across the east/west edges of the Pacific Ocean where coastlines force upwelling/downwelling, respectively. Thus, while warm SSTAs at depth indicate an impending Nino they likely won't be brought to the surface anytime soon.

Based on the monthly images you provided this Nina still has some time on the clock. Next winter will be interesting to see what happens, but I'm reasonably confident that 19-20 will be a Nino.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  4_5_SSTA_Depth.png ( 32.88K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 17 2018, 04:07 PM
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07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1
14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1
21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0
28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1
04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1
11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0

Not bad progression so far should really see a change with the next one especially around 3.4 and 3 with some warming taking place into 2 over time should help warm 1+2. Really starting to get the ball rolling here kind of would be surprised if we did manage warm neutral going into summer across most regions.

Looks as though also we are starting to get some warmth with depth in the eastern areas showing up still probably wont warm up there though until we head into late may june time frame. Until then expect it to slowly warm or even stay around the similar temp anom we have over the next couple this month.

Looks as though FMA may be setting up around -0.5 area maybe a little higher (-0.4) depending on the next couple weeks there. Really starting to like the Modoki idea as we head into summer and fall.

Attached File  wkxzteq_anm.gif ( 137.54K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Apr 17 2018, 04:08 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 21 2018, 01:52 PM
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According to BOM weeklies waters have warmed rather nicely across all regions 2 is still holding its own but the 1+2 combo has warmed. Will wait for CPC though since I know BOM measures things a little differently than CPC. One thing though is that area of high pressure that strengthened nicely has moved west, I guess it would still be a retrograde in the SH technically since mean flow at that latitude is westerly, which will allow for warming in the eastern regions and probably holding of temps across other regions after this week for a little.

I really hope we continue this battle because I do not want to deal with another decent nino just yet but im sure cali, SW, and southern plains would be happy with that.


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Tylor Cartter

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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 30 2018, 03:42 PM
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I believe we are just about done with la nina here is progression from end of March until now. As always from left to right 1+2,3,3.4,4:

21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0
28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1
04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1
11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0
18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1
25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4

Should get final numbers coming out again this wednesday and should just about kill it in 3 and maybe still have negatives in 1+2. Subsurface still holding strong and as long as we dont get any strong KW/WWB event it should continue to filter up over the summer. Still like the idea of maybe a modoki look with overall getting warm neutral to maybe even weak nino by fall time we will see of course SOI been tending to be more on the negative side and GWO not quite as low in the nina setting as what is continually still being forecasted by the GFS. Looks like we are at least transitioning nice.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2018, 03:15 PM
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Havent had much talk in here lately so what are thoughts going into summer now. Last I heard many were still going cold neutral to maybe warm neutral in time? For the first time in awhile we are getting MJO progression into 4 and 5, usually crashed to COD shortly after entering 3. What this means maybe we actually see a shift in the pattern, for a little at least, across the area with highs pushing out of the SW US causing warmer temps from average and maybe drier conditions to come!

That would be something as for ENSO state it looks as though neutral will rule the field for a little while the warmer subsurface is surfacing in time if we dont get some nice downwelling KW action not much will change so we need a decent wave to actually progress through phases instead of skipping and going back to 8/1 region and cycling through that. Other than that not much to really speak of hence why we have little talk in here. Shall we continue on this or make another thread to discuss future ideas. I feel we should have just a basic ENSO discussion thread and then when actual events come about create a nina or nino thread for the time.


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Millersville University


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MaineJay
post Jun 1 2018, 05:10 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 30 2018, 04:15 PM) *
Havent had much talk in here lately so what are thoughts going into summer now. Last I heard many were still going cold neutral to maybe warm neutral in time? For the first time in awhile we are getting MJO progression into 4 and 5, usually crashed to COD shortly after entering 3. What this means maybe we actually see a shift in the pattern, for a little at least, across the area with highs pushing out of the SW US causing warmer temps from average and maybe drier conditions to come!

That would be something as for ENSO state it looks as though neutral will rule the field for a little while the warmer subsurface is surfacing in time if we dont get some nice downwelling KW action not much will change so we need a decent wave to actually progress through phases instead of skipping and going back to 8/1 region and cycling through that. Other than that not much to really speak of hence why we have little talk in here. Shall we continue on this or make another thread to discuss future ideas. I feel we should have just a basic ENSO discussion thread and then when actual events come about create a nina or nino thread for the time.



I think a general ENSO thread for 2018-2019 is a good idea.

SSTs for the last 6 months, almost looks like the equatorial current has slacked off as of late. Not really worth hazarding anything other than a guess on where it's headed.

Attached File  ezgif_3_19bc4db0af.gif ( 1.98MB ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ss...y/anim_6mw.html

Modest Kelvin wave activity has increased heat content.

Attached File  heat_xt_hf_drupal.gif ( 253.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots

Thought I'd show the BoM equatorial cross section.

Attached File  IDYOC002.gif ( 27.61K ) Number of downloads: 1


http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC002.gif


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jun 1 2018, 05:20 AM


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MaineJay
post Jun 8 2018, 03:02 AM
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MEI update was interesting.

Attached File  comp.png ( 9.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
In the context of last year's aborted El Niņo event, this section features a comparison figure with six other short-lived events during the MEI period of record. Only one of them occurred before 1980, while 2017 joined both 2014 and 2012 in a recent clustering of such events that lasted five five bimonthly seasons or less, with all of them ending before September-October.

Compared to last month, the updated (April-May) MEI rose to +0.47, or by a remarkable 0.9 standard deviations in just one month, ending up just a few ranks shy of the weakest possible El Niņo ranking. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding five cases that had a three-month change of 0.0 or lower, we get the following seven analogues: 1965, 72, 82, 86, 90, 94, and 04 (only two of these were analogues last month). Subsequently, only one of these analogues (1990) remained ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year, while the other six all rose to El Niņo status, in fact, all but 2004 ended up with strong El Niņo conditions. Compared to last month, the likelihood of El Niņo conditions later this year has doubled to over 80%, based on this empirical estimate for the MEI.

Negative SST anomalies south of the Equator and west of 100W have shrunk considerably during the last month, while positive SST anomalies have started to appear right along the Equator from the dateline west of Galapagos, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. There are still some lingering cold anomalies along the South American coast from just south of the Equator to 30S.


https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


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idecline
post Jun 11 2018, 08:52 PM
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...hmm...EL-hmmm unsure.gif
Attached File  ensodisc.pdf ( 560.87K ) Number of downloads: 7


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...ry/ensodisc.pdf

the valley are low and the mountains are high... huh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 11 2018, 08:54 PM


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grace
post Jun 16 2018, 06:11 PM
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Someone needs to start an El Nino thread
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