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> July 18 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, Forecasts and OBS
phillyfan
post Jul 17 2016, 10:32 PM
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Figured I'd start a thread for tomorrow:
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY/NERN US...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRANSLATING INTO THE SERN PROVINCES
OF CANADA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY 18Z FROM ERN OH INTO UPSTATE NY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE EXPANDED 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. WITH DEEP-LAYER
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE STEADILY TOWARD THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS IND/IL INTO SRN IA. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR WHETHER A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL QPF IN LATEST
GUIDANCE FAVOR EXPANDING MRGL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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STEVE392
post Jul 17 2016, 11:02 PM
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starting to like this pattern of severe weather possibilities for my area. Hopefully it pans out.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 04:37 AM
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QUOTE
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-190815-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
409 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY.
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MaineJay
post Jul 18 2016, 05:43 AM
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Ended up getting 0.60" of rain yesterday, it really helped. smile.gif clearly it's not enough to kill the overall dry conditions, but it's welcomed.


Perhaps more today.

GYX

QUOTE
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have issued a dense fog advisory for southern Oxford, southern
Franklin, and southern Somerset southward to include coastal
Maine. Reports of visibilities from a quarter to a half mile in
fog should continue this morning before low level moisture mixes
out slightly.

Increasing south winds later this morning will transport moisture-
rich air into the region ahead of an approaching frontal system.
Once the fog and stratus mix out this morning, we should get
plenty of surface heating yielding impressive CAPE values by early
afternoon. Southwest winds and warm air advection will help
temperatures warm into the 80s and 90s.

The warm front will lift through during this time
allowing winds to veer ahead of upper level forcing. Storms should
become organized along the pre-frontal trough into one of more
QLCS segments with strong, near-unidirectional wind fields
throughout the layer. The main hazards will include strong
downburst winds as well as heavy rain as PW values climb to near
150% of normal by this afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will shift offshore along the boundary
tonight. Additional rainfall along the higher terrain will be
possible through late tonight before tapering off. Readings will
drop into the lower 50s north as cooler drier moves in behind the
cold front. Farther south temperatures should bottom out in the
60s.

Winds will be gusty on Tuesday in northwest flow. High pressure
builds in from the west clearing out any remaining clouds. Highs
will reach the mid 60s north to mid 70s/near 80 south.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off



--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 18 2016, 08:36 AM
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Holly


QUOTE
In terms of severe weather potential, SPC has placed portions of
northwest NJ and eastern PA under a slight risk. The guidance
suggests we will be capped into the early afternoon, and thus
did not introduce POPS until 18Z over the Poconos, with activity
expected to move into the I-95 urban corridor in the 22Z to 00Z time
frame.
The best instability and shear are collocated from Sussex
County, NJ southwest to Berks County, PA. In this corridor, ML CAPE
values may approach 1.5 kJ, with Bulk Shear up to 40 knots.
The environment is most favorable for damaging winds across this
region
.


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 18 2016, 09:36 AM) *
Holly

QUOTE
In terms of severe weather potential, SPC has placed portions of
northwest NJ and eastern PA under a slight risk. The guidance
suggests we will be capped into the early afternoon, and thus
did not introduce POPS until 18Z over the Poconos, with activity
expected to move into the I-95 urban corridor in the 22Z to 00Z time
frame. [b]The best instability and shear are collocated from Sussex
County, NJ southwest to Berks County, PA (right up to the border of Phillyfan's garden). In this corridor, ML CAPE
values may approach 1.5 kJ, with Bulk Shear up to 40 knots.
The environment is most favorable for damaging winds across this
region.


I had to edit Holly's disco to include one key missing element. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 18 2016, 08:41 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2016, 08:49 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 18 2016, 09:41 AM) *
I had to edit Holly's disco to include one key missing element. laugh.gif


well done sir. haha

storms typically dry up once entering the desert...

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 18 2016, 08:50 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 18 2016, 08:57 AM
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laugh.gif



--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 09:03 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 18 2016, 09:49 AM) *
well done sir. haha

storms typically dry up once entering the desert...

I have heard that both types of camels can be seen buying bottled water before they try to cross the barren wasteland known as phillyfan's garden. Californian's feel much better too, when they hear about this desolate waste land portion of Berks County PA (OK - I'll stop now)
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phillyfan
post Jul 18 2016, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 18 2016, 10:03 AM) *
I have heard that both types of camels can be seen buying bottled water before they try to cross the barren wasteland known as phillyfan's garden. Californian's feel much better too, when they hear about this desolate waste land portion of Berks County PA (OK - I'll stop now)

Well done. laugh.gif It's kind of bad when you haven't seen any rain since the 4th of July.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 18 2016, 09:08 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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LUCC
post Jul 18 2016, 09:20 AM
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That line in western PA has dried up pretty quick, even the heavier returns down in S Ohio and WV are diminishing quickly. I guess/hope they will fire back up later this afternoon? dry.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 18 2016, 09:22 AM
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Yea, 12z 4k nam just spit this out for 6pm tonight



That first line in western PA weakens then a whole buncha cells fire up.


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 18 2016, 09:31 AM
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Rgem at 06z def signaling something wet later as well. See what 12z says



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 18 2016, 09:32 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jul 18 2016, 09:36 AM
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HWO issued for our areas as well. Could be interesting as its gonna be pretty clear leading up to this front coming through.


--------------------
的f you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 10:01 AM
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Surprised that no-one posted the updated SPC D1 threat - which expands the SR zone to include all of PA (except the n/w corner where a.m. convection has overturned the atmosphere and stabilized the column) now (had left out a portion in early outlooks)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...
QUOTE
NERN CONUS...
ONGOING ARC OF NON-SVR CONVECTION FROM WRN NY SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OH/INDIANA SHOULD SERVE AS EFFECTIVE NWRN BOUND FOR SVR POTENTIAL
GIVEN SMALL DISTANCE...CLOUD/PRECIP EFFECTS...AND IMPROBABILITY OF
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS AFTN MAINLY AHEAD OF FRONT...BOTH INVOF PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH AND RESIDUAL VERTICAL-MOTION PLUME
RELATED TO ONGOING TSTMS
.
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC DAMAGING
WINDS...SOME OF WHICH MAY APCH OR BRIEFLY REACH SVR LIMITS.
SVR-HAIL RISK SHOULD BE MRGL/ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABILITY OF DEEP SHEAR AND POTENTIAL
FOR STORM-SCALE AUGMENTATION TO AMBIENT VORTICITY/SRH.

STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN INFLOW LAYER AND WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS TO
SFC. 1-1.5-INCH PW AND SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 60S F WILL COMBINE
WITH DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPE IN 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR. PREDOMINANTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH RELATED
LACK OF ROBUST CONVERGENCE WILL BE OFFSET BY AMBIENT WEAKNESS IN
MLCINH AND SUSCEPTIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INITIATION WITH ONLY
SUBTLE/LOCALIZED SOURCES FOR LIFT. FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.


Next update in a bout a half hour or so.
QUOTE
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 10:08 AM
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Just a note that temps are already an official 88F w/ DP of 69F at KMDT.

There is a large area of CIN through Central PA - but right behind that (directly in front of the front), the PWATs are over 1.5 and the CAPE is already at 500-1000 j/kg. Lift is relatively weak ATTM, but at -4 to -5 could be just enough.

Once the line hits the Susq Rvr Valley, at peak of diurnal heating, we could very well see additional development. I haven't viewed the HRRR lately - but note that the NAM is currently being discounted in earlier CTP discussion.

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phillyfan
post Jul 18 2016, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 18 2016, 11:08 AM) *
Just a note that temps are already an official 88F w/ DP of 69F at KMDT.

There is a large area of CIN through Central PA - but right behind that (directly in front of the front), the PWATs are over 1.5 and the CAPE is already at 500-1000 j/kg. Lift is relatively weak ATTM, but at -4 to -5 could be just enough.

Once the line hits the Susq Rvr Valley, at peak of diurnal heating, we could very well see additional development. I haven't viewed the HRRR lately - but note that the NAM is currently being discounted in earlier CTP discussion.

89 already over here, will definitely hit 90 for a 5th consecutive day. HRRR doesn't look that impressive, if i'm looking at it right. But when has the HRRR been spot on this year.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 18 2016, 10:14 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 15 / Heat Waves: 3
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 18 2016, 10:35 AM
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Already a toasty 82F...


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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jacksonjeff
post Jul 18 2016, 10:35 AM
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Just hit 90 here
Dp 68
There's a decent breeze, but it's a hot one!!! Hoping whatever storms fire will make towards the coast. But not holding my breath

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Undertakerson
post Jul 18 2016, 11:03 AM
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SPC has a new meso disco out. Someone else will have to post the images - basically, all of Central to E PA and above, is outlined - as is MDBR's region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1317.html

QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MA / RI / CT / ERN AND SRN NY / NRN NJ /
ERN AND SERN PA / NRN MD AND DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181540Z - 181715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ON THE LEAD
GUST FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED /80 PERCENT/ FOR THE AREA GENERALLY INCLUDING
AN AREA FROM NRN NJ/NERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER S...THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SERN PA INTO MD IS 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS
CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER SWRN PA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER N-CNTRL PA
AND S-CNTRL NY. WEAKENING OUTFLOW FROM THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS
GRADUALLY PROGRESSING E OVER CNTRL PA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF AREA HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPS
AROUND 90 DEG F OVER MA/CT SWD INTO DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE ALSO
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE PER MODIFIED
12Z RAOBS/ WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED. THE STRONGER
0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF NERN PA AND NRN NJ NWD
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND /25-35 KT/. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL PROBABLY
ACQUIRE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR ON A VERY LOCALIZED
BASIS AS WELL.

FARTHER S IN S-CNTRL PA AND MD EWD INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER
VALLEY...
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE STORMS
MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WLY MEAN FLOW AROUND 25 KT AND
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG C PER KM/ MAY COMBINE TO YIELD
SEVERAL STRONGER STORMS AND/OR SMALL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

..SMITH/HART.. 07/18/2016


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...B
M...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON 40037791 42387496 43707501 43517344 42767257 42597104
41717111 40717371 39287591 39397728 40037791


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 18 2016, 11:04 AM
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