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> Tropical Storm Danielle, 6/20 7AM CDT 40mph - 1008mb - Movement: WNW @ 7mph
jdrenken
post Jun 18 2016, 02:19 PM
Post #1




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QUOTE
AL, 94, 2016061712, , BEST, 0, 186N, 873W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061718, , BEST, 0, 189N, 882W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061800, , BEST, 0, 190N, 889W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061806, , BEST, 0, 192N, 897W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061812, , BEST, 0, 195N, 905W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al762016 to al942016,
AL, 94, 2016061818, , BEST, 0, 197N, 914W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,





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jdrenken
post Jun 19 2016, 03:53 PM
Post #2




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80% now...

QUOTE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized. However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi


QUOTE
AL, 94, 2016061712, , BEST, 0, 175N, 880W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061718, , BEST, 0, 181N, 886W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061800, , BEST, 0, 186N, 892W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061806, , BEST, 0, 189N, 900W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2016061812, , BEST, 0, 192N, 909W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al762016 to al942016,
AL, 94, 2016061818, , BEST, 0, 193N, 917W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
AL, 94, 2016061900, , BEST, 0, 197N, 923W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
AL, 94, 2016061906, , BEST, 0, 199N, 932W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
AL, 94, 2016061912, , BEST, 0, 199N, 940W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
AL, 94, 2016061918, , BEST, 0, 199N, 947W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,


--------------------
QUOTE
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Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 19 2016, 08:26 PM
Post #3




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QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 95.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in
Mexico on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


--------------------
QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 19 2016, 08:29 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic
hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to
the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now
a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on
the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has
maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by
NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt
most of the day.


The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a
mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.
This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is
predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24
hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close
to the GFS and ECMWF models.

The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the
depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for
slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.
Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it
interacts with rugged terrain.

Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within
the state of Veracruz.

The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be
heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown


--------------------
QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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jdrenken
post Jun 20 2016, 07:30 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
700 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...
...DANIELLE SPREADING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 96.0 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening
is forecast before Danielle makes landfall in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 20 2016, 02:14 PM
Post #6




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From: Tn
Member No.: 17,230





BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
100 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

...DANIELLE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 96.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.6 West. Danielle is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the
west or west-northwest is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Danielle is expected to move
inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Danielle makes landfall
in Mexico later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Danielle is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of
Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and
northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. More than 5 inches of rain have already
occurred at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within portions of the warning area later this morning, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi


--------------------
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