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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
EstorilM
post Mar 12 2018, 07:52 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 11 2018, 09:37 AM) *
Yup and Atlanta still has more than DC. Not sure if that's ever happened.

Pretty sure all of texas, OK, SC, etc qualify also lol. It quickly became almost comical how everything missed the DC area and western burbs of VA
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psu1313
post Mar 12 2018, 08:09 AM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Mar 12 2018, 07:52 AM) *
Pretty sure all of texas, OK, SC, etc qualify also lol. It quickly became almost comical how everything missed the DC area and western burbs of VA


Yep and it's officially time to put a fork in winter weather for DC. After today, maybe there's a snow shower Wednesday and then we should see something of a warmup this weekend though Saturday looks murky. Between the pattern and climatology we're coming to the end of the rope so I think maybe it's time to congratulate Atlanta on a good year for them.

I'm not saying that it can't happen, but I feel that people south of the Mason/Dixon line can now start to think about Cherry Blossoms after this week of below average temperatures.
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RobB
post Mar 12 2018, 08:11 AM
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3/12 0Z NAEFS:
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Attached File  naefs.png ( 91.96K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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RobB
post Mar 12 2018, 08:13 AM
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3/12 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 mb temp anomalies (click to loop)
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 12 2018, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 11 2018, 05:50 PM) *
#Morch? blink.gif



Believe that when it happens, just like how it hasnt realitically snowed here in a month. This is the crapiest pattern I can remember in some time...too cold to enjoy anything at all. And too much of a disastrous pattern for anyone not getting 3 noreaters (and counting based on LR gfs/ecm) to get snow. Just break one way or the other, I don't care which way...just something change
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NorEaster07
post Mar 12 2018, 02:14 PM
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Aside from opening the shades and doors and seeing it, and aside from stepping outside and feeling it...I can tell its very wintry outside just by how much wood I'm burning. It feels like a December type burn..

Check out these locations which are having a colder March then February so far...

White Plains:(NYC Suburb near me)
February 1-28: 37.6
March 1-11: 36.8

Philly:
February 1-28: 41.9
March 1-11: 38.6

Pittsburgh:
February 1-28: 38.8
March 1-11: 33.1

Binghamton:
February 1-28: 30.9
March 1-11: 28.2

Syracuse:
February 1-28: 32.2
March 1-11: 31.3

Scranton:
February 1-28: 35.6
March 1-11: 33.3


CT Climo sites close in average, kinda surprised about Hartford though

Bridgeport, CT:
February 1-28: 38
March 1-11: 39

Hartford, CT
February 1-28: 35.5
March 1-11: 37.3
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cary67
post Mar 12 2018, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 12 2018, 01:03 PM) *
Believe that when it happens, just like how it hasnt realitically snowed here in a month. This is the crapiest pattern I can remember in some time...too cold to enjoy anything at all. And too much of a disastrous pattern for anyone not getting 3 noreaters (and counting based on LR gfs/ecm) to get snow. Just break one way or the other, I don't care which way...just something change

Not liking the long term setup for my trip to Tuscon for the last week of March. Figures a flip to trough in the west and ridging here.lol
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 12 2018, 04:55 PM
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Still have a little while before we can start thinking spring, the 12z euro has temps dropping below 0 for a good chunk of the state, next week..

Attached File  867953C6_8823_4E25_BB01_F5A98C7477F4.jpeg ( 356.24K ) Number of downloads: 4


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 12 2018, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 12 2018, 02:03 PM) *
Believe that when it happens, just like how it hasnt realitically snowed here in a month. This is the crapiest pattern I can remember in some time...too cold to enjoy anything at all. And too much of a disastrous pattern for anyone not getting 3 noreaters (and counting based on LR gfs/ecm) to get snow. Just break one way or the other, I don't care which way...just something change

I can't really complain. It's generally been warm, which I'm happy with if it's not gonna snow.



It's gonna get "cold" again in a couple days, but it's gonna warm up and be sunny for almost 5 days straight. There's increasingly strong signs that warmth and severe weather are going to happen later this March.


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 12 2018, 08:48 PM
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I was disappointed to see College of DuPage is apparently done with their extended range tornado forecasting... but another college picked it up.

Forecasting above average activity (>150%) for weeks 2 and 3

http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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BrentSEMI
post Mar 12 2018, 09:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 12 2018, 08:48 PM) *
I was disappointed to see College of DuPage is apparently done with their extended range tornado forecasting... but another college picked it up.

Forecasting above average activity (>150%) for weeks 2 and 3

http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/



Dr. Gensini switched from COD to NIU last summer and will continue the forecast out of NIU. Cool to note my undergrad research adviser works on this as well.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 12 2018, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(BrentSEMI @ Mar 12 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Dr. Gensini switched from COD to NIU last summer and will continue the forecast out of NIU. Cool to note my undergrad research adviser works on this as well.

Gotcha. Was thinking it's weird how it's almost the exact same setup. tongue.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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BrentSEMI
post Mar 12 2018, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 12 2018, 09:31 PM) *
Gotcha. Was thinking it's weird how it's almost the exact same setup. tongue.gif


Yeah I didn't even catch it was under NIU until you just pointed it out haha. I guess I can go for some severe storms! Better than brown and rain around here.
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RickRD
post Mar 12 2018, 11:08 PM
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Euro Weeklies are out and March and April do not look very warm. Below Normal Temps and is showing a carrot for the Mid-Atlantic in 9 days.
Attached File  eps_sno_c_120_ma_41.png ( 206.33K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by RickRD: Mar 12 2018, 11:08 PM
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stuffradio
post Mar 12 2018, 11:24 PM
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Latest BoM Australia ENSO update has removed La Nina conditions. Long live La Nina.
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adurb44
post Mar 13 2018, 07:30 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 12 2018, 02:03 PM) *
Believe that when it happens, just like how it hasnt realitically snowed here in a month. This is the crapiest pattern I can remember in some time...too cold to enjoy anything at all. And too much of a disastrous pattern for anyone not getting 3 noreaters (and counting based on LR gfs/ecm) to get snow. Just break one way or the other, I don't care which way...just something change


No kidding. This is why I detest the month of March. Cold, gray, windy, wet. I'd much rather get positive departures in March than February! Seems like that isn't the case this year.
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NWOhioChaser
post Mar 13 2018, 07:33 AM
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If we get a cool spring here I'm going to go bonkers.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 13 2018, 08:40 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 12 2018, 08:27 PM) *
I can't really complain. It's generally been warm, which I'm happy with if it's not gonna snow.



It's gonna get "cold" again in a couple days, but it's gonna warm up and be sunny for almost 5 days straight. There's increasingly strong signs that warmth and severe weather are going to happen later this March.

but "warm" from a early February to early March stretch is still bleh
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NorEaster07
post Mar 13 2018, 09:45 AM
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I texted this to my cousin and he replied. "WTF". I guarantee you that didn't mean "Whats The Forecast". laugh.gif tongue.gif ohmy.gif

Crazy.

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            06Z MAR13   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
TUE 06Z 13-MAR   0.0    -7.6    1007      91     100             537     532    
TUE 12Z 13-MAR   0.0    -7.9    1003      90     100    0.21     532     530    
TUE 18Z 13-MAR   1.4    -7.7    1004      86      91    0.19     528     526    
WED 00Z 14-MAR  -0.2    -7.9    1004      86      95    0.03     526     523    
WED 06Z 14-MAR  -2.9    -8.4    1003      86      84    0.00     522     519    
WED 12Z 14-MAR  -2.6    -9.6    1003      85      94    0.00     518     516    
WED 18Z 14-MAR   2.8    -8.5    1000      72      95    0.03     517     517    
THU 00Z 15-MAR   0.0    -8.5    1000      81      99    0.05     518     518    
THU 06Z 15-MAR  -1.3    -9.1    1001      80      97    0.00     521     520    
THU 12Z 15-MAR  -2.3    -8.7    1002      78      90    0.00     523     522    
THU 18Z 15-MAR   3.2    -8.8    1002      64      65    0.00     523     522    
FRI 00Z 16-MAR  -0.3    -7.8    1002      82      71    0.00     524     522    
FRI 06Z 16-MAR  -2.3    -8.6    1003      81      70    0.00     523     521    
FRI 12Z 16-MAR  -2.3   -11.4    1006      76      76    0.00     524     519    
FRI 18Z 16-MAR   1.5   -11.1    1007      58      80    0.00     526     521    
SAT 00Z 17-MAR  -2.7   -12.4    1012      70      54    0.00     531     521    
SAT 06Z 17-MAR  -4.2   -10.0    1015      73      16    0.00     534     523    
SAT 12Z 17-MAR  -4.7    -7.4    1018      65      56    0.00     542     529    
SAT 18Z 17-MAR   3.7    -6.0    1015      42      16    0.00     547     535    
SUN 00Z 18-MAR   0.6    -3.2    1014      76      21    0.00     548     537    
SUN 06Z 18-MAR   0.6    -3.8    1011      77      98    0.00     542     533    
SUN 12Z 18-MAR   0.2    -3.2    1009      74      76    0.00     542     535    
SUN 18Z 18-MAR   8.5    -3.9    1007      48      37    0.00     542     538    
MON 00Z 19-MAR   1.0    -5.4    1008      80      40    0.00     543     536    
MON 06Z 19-MAR  -1.7    -7.6    1010      87      40    0.00     540     532    
MON 12Z 19-MAR  -2.8   -10.1    1013      75      38    0.00     538     529    
MON 18Z 19-MAR   2.4   -11.2    1012      37      33    0.00     538     528    
TUE 00Z 20-MAR  -2.5   -10.9    1014      60      37    0.00     538     527    
TUE 06Z 20-MAR  -5.3   -11.0    1015      58      78    0.00     536     524    
TUE 12Z 20-MAR  -6.0   -11.7    1015      44      95    0.00     535     524    
TUE 18Z 20-MAR  -0.3   -13.0    1013      29      22    0.00     534     524    
WED 00Z 21-MAR  -3.3   -10.9    1013      49      18    0.00     533     523    
WED 06Z 21-MAR  -6.4   -11.7    1015      58      39    0.00     528     516    
WED 12Z 21-MAR  -6.6   -12.8    1016      60      78    0.00     527     514    
WED 18Z 21-MAR   1.2   -12.2    1015      42      95    0.00     529     517    
THU 00Z 22-MAR  -1.5   -11.7    1019      62      95    0.00     533     519    
THU 06Z 22-MAR  -3.2   -10.0    1021      65      74    0.00     536     520    
THU 12Z 22-MAR  -3.4    -9.3    1022      65      39    0.00     540     523    
THU 18Z 22-MAR   4.7    -8.6    1022      41      22    0.00     544     527    
FRI 00Z 23-MAR   0.2    -6.7    1024      72      22    0.00     547     528    
FRI 06Z 23-MAR  -2.3    -6.3    1025      87      13    0.00     551     531    
FRI 18Z 23-MAR   5.9    -5.7    1021      43      23    0.00     554     537    
SAT 06Z 24-MAR   2.6    -3.4    1015      87      99    0.11     552     540    
SAT 18Z 24-MAR   7.9     2.2     998      94     100    1.43     547     549    
SUN 06Z 25-MAR   6.7     4.0     987      94      89    1.40     533     544    
SUN 18Z 25-MAR   6.1    -2.8     987      80      97    0.08     525     536    
MON 06Z 26-MAR   2.6    -3.7     991      83      97    0.19     525     533    
MON 18Z 26-MAR   7.2    -4.4     999      64      87    0.02     531     531    
TUE 06Z 27-MAR  -0.1    -5.8    1008      82      81    0.01     535     529    
TUE 18Z 27-MAR   5.1    -8.0    1010      51      88    0.00     535     527    
WED 06Z 28-MAR  -1.8    -8.1    1016      82      38    0.00     541     529    
WED 18Z 28-MAR   5.5    -7.0    1011      55      51    0.00     548     538    
THU 06Z 29-MAR   0.3    -7.1    1008      90      98    0.35     534     529
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jdrenken
post Mar 13 2018, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(BrentSEMI @ Mar 12 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Dr. Gensini switched from COD to NIU last summer and will continue the forecast out of NIU. Cool to note my undergrad research adviser works on this as well.


I met John when I gave my BSR case studies at CPCDW in Denver a few years back.


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