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> March 20-22 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Solstice
post Mar 2 2018, 03:08 PM
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Been watching this time period. I would compose a longer opening post, but I'm rather busy now. More should come later.

SOI and SOID.

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BSR.

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EAR. Yes, 200+ hours out, but at least it shows something tongue.gif.

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Mar 14 2018, 05:18 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Charles in CT
post Mar 2 2018, 10:04 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Mar 2 2018, 03:08 PM) *
Been watching this time period. I would compose a longer opening post, but I'm rather busy now. More should come later.

SOI and SOID.

Attached Image


BSR.

Attached Image


EAR. Yes, 200+ hours out, but at least it shows something tongue.gif.

Attached Image



Took my sons about 10 mins to realize that the last image was of Asia - And then they asked the question - Why are we seeing a map of the Sea of Japan. - The weather system has to come from somewhere - after all.
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jdrenken
post Mar 3 2018, 08:02 AM
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QUOTE(Charles in CT @ Mar 2 2018, 09:04 PM) *
Took my sons about 10 mins to realize that the last image was of Asia - And then they asked the question - Why are we seeing a map of the Sea of Japan. - The weather system has to come from somewhere - after all.


If you want, have them read this for some backstory. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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Storms R us
post Mar 3 2018, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 3 2018, 08:02 AM) *
If you want, have them read this for some backstory. wink.gif

Good information JD, thank you
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Solstice
post Mar 8 2018, 10:58 AM
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Maybe this thread was a bit premature... mellow.gif.

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Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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jdrenken
post Mar 8 2018, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Mar 8 2018, 09:58 AM) *
Maybe this thread was a bit premature... mellow.gif.

Attached Image


Attached Image


A storm system is still a storm system. All depends on how you "sell it". wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 9 2018, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Mar 8 2018, 10:58 AM) *
Maybe this thread was a bit premature... mellow.gif.

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Attached Image

We have a word we like to use.... conviction

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(psst - this is also how I obtained a high post count, I follow just about everything - even stuff in the Midwest/tropical/long range/West coast/ international/astronomy/ etc. wink.gif )
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Undertakerson
post Mar 10 2018, 05:41 AM
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Solstice
post Mar 10 2018, 03:04 PM
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Did someone say occluded? laugh.gif.

Attached Image


Another EAR.
Attached Image


This post has been edited by Solstice: Mar 10 2018, 03:08 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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jdrenken
post Mar 10 2018, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Mar 10 2018, 02:04 PM) *
Did someone say occluded? laugh.gif.

Attached Image


Mere coincidence


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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MaineJay
post Mar 11 2018, 04:28 AM
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EPS with spread
Hour 216

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Attached Image

Not bad, as signals go.


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sunday_driver
post Mar 11 2018, 06:33 PM
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MaineJay, what should I be gleaning from your otherwise pretty pictures here? smile.gif


--------------------
The snow is coming down
on our New England town
and it's been falling all day long...
Valley Winter - Fountains of Wayne
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Undertakerson
post Mar 12 2018, 04:02 AM
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(Pssssttt)

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ph34r.gif

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wink.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 12 2018, 04:04 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 12 2018, 04:07 AM
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And here you thought maybe tracking was done for the year....


Silllies

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Undertakerson
post Mar 12 2018, 04:12 AM
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sunday_driver
post Mar 12 2018, 04:47 AM
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Well snap. Yeah I thought our next friend would be it, but it looks like we still have at least one more in the pattern.

This post has been edited by sunday_driver: Mar 12 2018, 04:49 AM


--------------------
The snow is coming down
on our New England town
and it's been falling all day long...
Valley Winter - Fountains of Wayne
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MaineJay
post Mar 12 2018, 05:14 AM
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QUOTE(sunday_driver @ Mar 11 2018, 07:33 PM) *
MaineJay, what should I be gleaning from your otherwise pretty pictures here? smile.gif



So the isobars show the mean of all 51 ECMWF ensemble members. Top is 500mb, bottom is surface pressure. The colors represent the difference between the mean of average, and the differences between the highest and lowest values amongst the 51 members. A quick and dirty way to think of it is a form of confidence. More green is more agreement, equaling higher confidence, reds are more uncertainty.

Hope that explains it somewhat, if not, I can clarify. smile.gif

Looking at this run specifically, there's decent agreement of an eastern North America trof, but you see very broad low pressure ~1008mb, with plenty of spread, so the exact low poison could be in many places.

Today's EPS with spread
Attached Image
Attached Image


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sunday_driver
post Mar 12 2018, 05:19 AM
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Yes, it makes sense, thank you!


--------------------
The snow is coming down
on our New England town
and it's been falling all day long...
Valley Winter - Fountains of Wayne
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Storms R us
post Mar 12 2018, 05:24 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 12 2018, 05:12 AM) *

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UT they always look that good this far out and change quite a bit as time closes in on the event time. Personally I hope you guys in PA get snow or it goes off shore and comes back in around NJ. I guess we won't know what's going to happen until that last big nor'easter gets out of the way and the current storm system moves on. Keep up the great posting along with many other MJ, POC, Stretch etc. IF this was to happen I would hope DC would get some snow otherwise they may need to dream about snow for next winter.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Mar 12 2018, 05:25 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 12 2018, 05:31 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 12 2018, 06:24 AM) *
UT they always look that good this far out and change quite a bit as time closes in on the event time. Personally I hope you guys in PA get snow or it goes off shore and comes back in around NJ. I guess we won't know what's going to happen until that last big nor'easter gets out of the way and the current storm system moves on. Keep up the great posting along with many other MJ, POC, Stretch etc. IF this was to happen I would hope DC would get some snow otherwise they may need to dream about snow for next winter.

Those that match BSR maps, generally, tend to play out as indicated by the original look of BSR.

March snows are very "why bother" with me. Last year's "Stella", heck even Superstorm 93, were gone within 7 days and left a legacy of muddy messiness.

I prefer my snowstorms during meteorological winter. After Feb. I wish to move on to my favorite season - Spring.
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