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> March 20-22 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
konka
post Mar 13 2018, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 13 2018, 06:40 AM) *
0Z EURO Snow map. Since this area didn't receive that much snow from the present storm (especially S PA, S NJ, Delaware, MD, N VA) most of this snow is for this thread.


I'll believe it when I see. Every storm this winter for us down here depicted on the models this far in advance has eventually vanished into the north. I can't have my spirit crushed yet again!
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 13 2018, 07:18 AM
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0Z GGEM Snow map. First picture the current storm 2nd picture the totals after the storm for this thread. blink.gif

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snowdoug
post Mar 13 2018, 07:19 AM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 13 2018, 06:40 AM) *
0Z EURO Snow map. Since this area didn't receive that much snow from the present storm (especially S PA, S NJ, Delaware, MD, N VA) most of this snow is for this thread.

I think that this is the 10 time we have seen this type of depiction and we have now have 10.5 total snow
inches in central md for the season.
Its not my imagination but we now have been on the N, S, E, and W fringes of
many storms. There is a general pattern in place with coastal lp's and it appears rock solid.
Yesterday may have put me over the edge wishing this would end with a warmup instead of the
uncertainty.
I would love to see this "next" storm happen but...
Perhaps if I say it aint gonna happen it actually will.
Sorry local folks, aint gonna happen.

This post has been edited by snowdoug: Mar 13 2018, 08:55 AM
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 13 2018, 07:37 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 13 2018, 08:04 AM) *

euroC

Why not. Soon we won't have a chance to do this till next year...

Enjoy it while you can

Bruhs


Okay well now you're going to make me be the troll. Here's the euro conTROLL monster. It does a loop over southern Nj and crushes interior. Deduct the top snowmap from the bottom.
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Blizz
post Mar 13 2018, 07:42 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 13 2018, 08:37 AM) *
Okay well now you're going to make me be the troll. Here's the euro conTROLL monster. It does a loop over southern Nj and crushes interior. Deduct the top snowmap from the bottom.


Bruh..


--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 13 2018, 07:45 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Mar 13 2018, 08:42 AM) *
Bruh..


Bruh...
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 08:28 AM
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Long range CIPS guidance based on GEFS at h168 showing probability of above/below normal temperatures and probability of at least 0.5" of liquid. Only valid for the first half of the thread ... 12z runs today and 00z runs tonight should cover the entire time frame for this thread.
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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LUCC
post Mar 13 2018, 08:44 AM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 13 2018, 07:18 AM) *
0Z GGEM Snow map. First picture the current storm 2nd picture the totals after the storm for this thread. blink.gif

Right through CNJ on several models, lets see if it stays that way for the next 7 days. rolleyes.gif
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LUCC
post Mar 13 2018, 08:49 AM
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Man, Euro and GEM are snow bombs for PA/NJ/NYC/LI.
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moshe from brook...
post Mar 13 2018, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 13 2018, 08:49 AM) *
Man, Euro and GEM are snow bombs for PA/NJ/NYC/LI.

Oh man i hate this waiting period. This will be a long long week.
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cyclone31
post Mar 13 2018, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(moshe from brooklyn @ Mar 13 2018, 10:08 AM) *
Oh man i hate this waiting period. This will be a long long week.

Hope my generator gets here in time if this holds true, yikes!


--------------------
Denville, NJ 30 miles west of Bronx, NY
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Miller A
post Mar 13 2018, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 13 2018, 09:49 AM) *
Man, Euro and GEM are snow bombs for PA/NJ/NYC/LI.


Not familiar with the "Man" model. I can only assume it's the reverse opposite of the "Nam" as the Nam always plasters EPA and NWNJ when in actuality it's the "Man" model that is usually correct as CNJ is usually who gets plastered. dry.gif laugh.gif dry.gif

OT: Saw the Robbinsville water tower on the Turnpike this weekend. Now I know where all my snow truly ends up.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 13 2018, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(moshe from brooklyn @ Mar 13 2018, 11:08 AM) *
Oh man i hate this waiting period. This will be a long long week.


I feel like I've been chasing a full blown snowstorm for a month now. Have always been just onthe outside looking in
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phillyfan
post Mar 13 2018, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 13 2018, 11:33 AM) *
I feel like I've been chasing a full blown snowstorm for a month now. Have always been just onthe outside looking in

You don't have to tell me. dry.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 13 2018, 11:13 AM
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Remarkable similarities between 36 hours ago and the 168 hour forecast from the 00z Euro
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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avsguy01
post Mar 13 2018, 11:28 AM
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QUOTE(moshe from brooklyn @ Mar 13 2018, 10:08 AM) *
Oh man i hate this waiting period. This will be a long long week.

And I wouldn't get too excited either. Quite a lot needs to still pan out to get to the setup for this one.
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Black05GSR
post Mar 13 2018, 11:39 AM
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CMC still showing something decent







--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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Storms R us
post Mar 13 2018, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 13 2018, 08:37 AM) *
Okay well now you're going to make me be the troll. Here's the euro conTROLL monster. It does a loop over southern Nj and crushes interior. Deduct the top snowmap from the bottom.



Good keep it north away from DC/BWI and DE we rather look forward to spring. The only bad thing would be the flooding when it all melts especially if it's not a control melt.

UT looks to be heading north to your area and NE laugh.gif
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avsguy01
post Mar 13 2018, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 13 2018, 11:40 AM) *
Good keep it north away from DC/BWI and DE we rather look forward to spring. The only bad thing would be the flooding when it all melts especially if it's not a control melt.

UT looks to be heading north to your area and NE laugh.gif

As it should....
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stretchct
post Mar 13 2018, 11:41 AM
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This was a really cool run at 500mb by the euro
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--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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